Building track record

Misses are the product. Every occupied confidence bucket stays visible.

All decided directional calls in this record's scope, with usable stored confidence; no date, category or success filter. Other outcomes remain visible in the ledger and are counted separately here. Scope: Forward-only. As of: 2026-10-07T18:45:04.585389+00:00.

Brier is mean squared error against corrected hits (lower is better). The constant base rate is fitted to these same usable-confidence calls; reference Brier is base rate times one minus base rate. Skill is one minus Brier divided by reference Brier. Negative skill means worse than this descriptive comparator; this is not held-out or issuance-time skill. Skill is undefined when every outcome is the same.

3 qualifying buckets; 1 exceed the 10-point tolerance.

Stored confidence may have been transformed by writers. This describes stored probabilities, not certified original emission probabilities. Missing or invalid confidence is counted, never invented or rescaled.

Decided directional calls: 917. Binned: 318. Missing confidence: 0. Invalid confidence: 0. Paired calls excluded: 0. Credits corrected to misses: 8. Undecided directional outcomes: 963. Other resolved calls: 437.

Confidence pending validation: 599. Modeled-current calls are not placed in a band while their stated confidence is pending validation; they still count in the headline.