Public prediction ledger
The prediction ledger
Forecasts written down before the deadline, then graded after the data printed.
Published by a Toronto-based team / odinos.ca.
Decided-calls rate
60.3%
Counting each call once
57.0%
3,009 total1,426 resolved748 decided451 right
This record counts only forward-looking calls — predictions registered before their outcome was knowable. Eight earlier entries produced by historical simulation were reclassified out of the headline record and preserved in a public archive. View the archived entries.
Counting rule in effect since Aug 4, 2026.
Nowcast hit rate
53.5%
Forecast hit rate
69.8%
Hit rate counts only decisive grades. No-calls and inconclusive grades are shown separately.
Coming due
Pending calls show their registered values before the deadline.
Sep 2, 2026
September 2, 2026 Bank of Canada decision
Closed
Canadian Rate Squeeze Index moves down at next print (modeled -0.5613)
Sep 16, 2026
September 16, 2026 FOMC decision
No call yet
Oct 28, 2026
October 28, 2026 Bank of Canada decision
No call yet
Oct 28, 2026
October 28, 2026 FOMC decision
No call yet
Resolved ledger
All resolved calls
| Prediction | Made on | Deadline | What would grade it | Outcome | Grade | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 9,776,063Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 9,725,432 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 9,586,926 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,725,000 to 9,587,000 (-1.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥9,725,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 9,960,977Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 9,920,198 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 9,998,292 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,920,000 to 9,998,000 (+0.79%) — predicted up, bar ≥9,920,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 36,474Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 7 times, same grade | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 36,402 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 36,365 on 2026-08-20. | Inconclusive | TSX Composite: 36,400 to 36,370 (-0.10%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-21): Canadian Rate Squeeze Index next print leaning down to -0.7618Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 17 times, same grade | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index had to be at or below -0.75 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value -0.75 on 2026-08-22. | Inconclusive | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index: -0.75 to -0.75 (-0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.31Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.30 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3.35 on 2026-08-20. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.3 to 3.35 (+1.52%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.3 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): gold next print leaning up to 4,497Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,489 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 4,516 on 2026-08-20. | Inconclusive | gold: 4489 to 4516 (+0.60%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-20): S&P 500 Index next print leaning down to 7,621Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or below 7,641 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 7,674 on 2026-08-21. | Incorrect | S&P 500 Index: 7641 to 7674 (+0.43%) — predicted down, bar ≤7641 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 90.54Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 93.27 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 91.79 on 2026-08-20. | Correct | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 93.27 to 91.79 (-1.59%) — predicted down, bar ≤93.27 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.7078Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.71 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 0.73 on 2026-08-20. | Incorrect | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.71 to 0.73 (+2.82%) — predicted down, bar ≤0.71 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to fall by 2026-08-21Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-21. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-21); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 31dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-21. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-21); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 31dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-21. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-21); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast - registered 7 times, same grade | Jul 7, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-21. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-21); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): IPPI — Energy & Petroleum next print leaning down to 161.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 26, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | IPPI — Energy & Petroleum had to be at or below 169.80 by 2026-09-15. | Actual value 180.90 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | IPPI — Energy & Petroleum: 169.8 to 180.9 (+6.54%) — predicted down, bar ≤169.8 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): IPPI Total (Index) next print leaning down to 145.18Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 26, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | IPPI Total (Index) had to be at or below 145.60 by 2026-09-15. | Actual value 146.50 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | IPPI Total (Index): 145.6 to 146.5 (+0.62%) — predicted down, bar ≤145.6 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): IPPI — Machinery & Equipment next print leaning up to 128.14Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 26, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment had to be at or above 127.80 by 2026-09-15. | Actual value 128.10 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment: 127.8 to 128.1 (+0.23%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): M2 Money Supply Growth next print leaning up to 2,844,730Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | M2 Money Supply Growth had to be at or above 2,832,736 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 2,840,155 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | M2 Money Supply Growth: 2,833,000 to 2,840,000 (+0.26%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,833,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-19): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,739Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 20, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,708 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 7,641 on 2026-08-20. | Incorrect | S&P 500 Index: 7708 to 7641 (-0.87%) — predicted up, bar ≥7708 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-18): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.736Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 20, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.74 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 0.71 on 2026-08-19. | Correct | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.74 to 0.71 (-4.05%) — predicted down, bar ≤0.74 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) next print leaning up to 4,085,775Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) had to be at or above 4,066,015 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 4,106,258 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money): 4,066,000 to 4,106,000 (+0.99%) — predicted up, bar ≥4,066,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): EI Beneficiaries — Regular Benefits (Canada, SA) next print leaning down to 541,996Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | EI Beneficiaries — Regular Benefits (Canada, SA) had to be at or below 543,690 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 541,960 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | EI Beneficiaries — Regular Benefits (Canada, SA): 543,700 to 542,000 (-0.32%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): IPPI All Commodities YoY next print leaning down to 10.64Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | IPPI All Commodities YoY had to be at or below 12.43 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 12.43 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | IPPI All Commodities YoY: 12.43 to 12.43 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY next print leaning down to 3.38Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or below 3.42 by 2026-09-13. | Actual value 4.17 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY: 3.424 to 4.171 (+21.82%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.424 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value next print leaning up to 2,463,223Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value had to be at or above 2,458,876 by 2026-09-13. | Actual value 2,173,943 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value: 2,459,000 to 2,174,000 (-11.59%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,459,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value next print leaning up to 2,434,669Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value had to be at or above 2,420,821 by 2026-09-13. | Actual value 2,982,943 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value: 2,421,000 to 2,983,000 (+23.22%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,421,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced next print leaning up to 58,741Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced had to be at or above 58,442 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 63,861 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced: 58,440 to 63,860 (+9.27%) — predicted up, bar ≥58,440 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) next print leaning up to 1,793,790Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) had to be at or above 1,786,910 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,798,068 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits): 1,787,000 to 1,798,000 (+0.62%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,787,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-18): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.29Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 20, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.29 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 3.30 on 2026-08-19. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.29 to 3.3 (+0.30%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — All-Items (Alberta) next print leaning down to 177.83Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) had to be at or below 178.20 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 179.80 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Alberta): 178.2 to 179.8 (+0.90%) — predicted down, bar ≤178.2 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — All-Items (BC) next print leaning down to 162.60Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (BC) had to be at or below 163.30 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 163.70 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (BC): 163.3 to 163.7 (+0.24%) — predicted down, bar ≤163.3 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — All-Items (Ontario) next print leaning down to 168.32Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) had to be at or below 169.30 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 169.90 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Ontario): 169.3 to 169.9 (+0.35%) — predicted down, bar ≤169.3 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — All-Items (Quebec) next print leaning down to 165.42Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) had to be at or below 166.20 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 167 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Quebec): 166.2 to 167 (+0.48%) — predicted down, bar ≤166.2 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-17): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.31Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 19, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.31 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 3.29 on 2026-08-18. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.31 to 3.29 (-0.60%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-17): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 36,717Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 19, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 36,668 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 36,368 on 2026-08-18. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 36,670 to 36,370 (-0.82%) — predicted up, bar ≥36,670 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) next print leaning up to 228.36Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 227.83 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 217.80 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): 227.8 to 217.8 (-4.40%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-17): S&P 500 Index next print leaning down to 7,732Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or below 7,745 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 7,692 on 2026-08-18. | Correct | S&P 500 Index: 7745 to 7692 (-0.69%) — predicted down, bar ≤7745 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning down to 4,359Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or below 4,372 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 4,041 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC): 4372 to 4041 (-7.57%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning down to 2,934Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or below 2,940 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 2,396 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC): 2940 to 2396 (-18.50%) — predicted down, bar ≤2940 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) next print leaning down to 20,160Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or below 20,265 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 18,834 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National): 20,260 to 18,830 (-7.06%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) next print leaning up to 3,029Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 3,005 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 2,458 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA): 3005 to 2458 (-18.20%) — predicted up, bar ≥3005 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA) next print leaning up to 2,025Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA) had to be at or above 2,008 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 1,810 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA): 2008 to 1810 (-9.86%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning up to 4,771Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or above 4,763 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 5,052 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC): 4763 to 5052 (+6.07%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-13): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,809Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,799 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 7,786 on 2026-08-14. | Inconclusive | S&P 500 Index: 7799 to 7786 (-0.17%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans next print leaning up to 932,940Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 15, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans had to be at or above 927,146 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 937,354 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans: 927,100 to 937,400 (+1.10%) — predicted up, bar ≥927,100 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Household Credit Growth next print leaning down to 1.69Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 15, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | Household Credit Growth had to be at or below 1.81 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 1.95 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Household Credit Growth: 1.81 to 1.95 (+7.73%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-12): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,788Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 13, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,748 by 2026-09-03. | Actual value 7,799 on 2026-08-13. | Correct | S&P 500 Index: 7748 to 7799 (+0.65%) — predicted up, bar ≥7748 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-10): S&P 500 Index next print leaning down to 7,732Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or below 7,753 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 7,728 on 2026-08-11. | Inconclusive | S&P 500 Index: 7753 to 7728 (-0.32%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Full-Time Employment Share next print leaning up to 82.91Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Full-Time Employment Share had to be at or above 82.82 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 82.15 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Full-Time Employment Share: 82.82 to 82.15 (-0.81%) — predicted up, bar ≥82.82 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Shelter CPI (Ontario) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 189 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Shelter (Ontario): 189.4 to 189 (-0.21%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Building Permit Value next print leaning down to 2,009,478Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Building Permit Value had to be at or below 2,055,876 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 4,013,015 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Building Permit Value: 2,056,000 to 4,013,000 (+95.20%) — predicted down, bar ≤2,056,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): British Columbia Total Employment next print leaning up to 2,940Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | British Columbia Total Employment had to be at or above 2,937 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 2,955 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | British Columbia Total Employment: 2937 to 2955 (+0.61%) — predicted up, bar ≥2937 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment Change next print leaning up to -16.57Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Employment Change had to be at or above -16.70 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 51.60 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment Change: -16.7 to 51.6 (-408.98%) — predicted up, bar ≥-16.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Energy CPI (Alberta) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Energy (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 239.80 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (Alberta): 248.5 to 239.8 (-3.50%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Energy CPI (British Columbia) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Energy (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 226.90 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (BC): 241.7 to 226.9 (-6.12%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value next print leaning down to 1,549,640Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value had to be at or below 1,552,862 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1,824,426 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value: 1,553,000 to 1,824,000 (+17.49%) — predicted down, bar ≤1,553,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-07): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,784Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 8, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,758 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 7,753 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | S&P 500 Index: 7758 to 7753 (-0.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-06): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,727Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Aug 7, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,710 by 2026-08-28. | Actual value 7,758 on 2026-08-07. | Correct | S&P 500 Index: 7710 to 7758 (+0.62%) — predicted up, bar ≥7710 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-24): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,446Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 25, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,412 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 7,316 on 2026-07-29. | Incorrect | S&P 500 Index: 7412 to 7316 (-1.29%) — predicted up, bar ≥7412 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-29): S&P 500 Index next print leaning down to 7,280Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 30, 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or below 7,316 by 2026-08-20. | Actual value 7,438 on 2026-07-30. | Incorrect | S&P 500 Index: 7316 to 7438 (+1.66%) — predicted down, bar ≤7316 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-23): S&P 500 Index next print leaning down to 7,347Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 24, 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or below 7,408 by 2026-08-20. | Actual value 7,316 on 2026-07-29. | Correct | S&P 500 Index: 7408 to 7316 (-1.24%) — predicted down, bar ≤7408 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or above 16.0) within 28dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 16 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 84.03 on 2026-08-19. | Inconclusive | WTI Crude Oil: 86.62 to 84.03 (-2.99%) — predicted FALL; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.8) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-19. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted up, bar ≥2.8 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-19. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.37) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.37 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-19. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.37 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) next print leaning up to 447.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) had to be at or above 447 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 457.60 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA): 447 to 457.6 (+2.37%) — predicted up, bar ≥447 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-12-01): Rate Sensitivity Index next print leaning down to 6.52Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Rate Sensitivity Index had to be at or below 6.54 by 2026-08-15. | This prediction could not be graded. | Unable to grade | Unable to grade: the registered grading window is empty because the starting period is after the deadline. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): CMHC Average Rent: 2-Bedroom next print leaning up to 1,993Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CMHC Average Rent: 2-Bedroom had to be at or above 1,989 by 2026-08-15. | This prediction could not be graded. | Unable to grade | Unable to grade: a monthly target was registered for a series that does not publish monthly, so no matching print can arrive inside the grading window. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): CMHC Vacancy Rate next print leaning down to 2.67Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | CMHC Vacancy Rate had to be at or below 2.67 by 2026-08-14. | This prediction could not be graded. | Unable to grade | Unable to grade: a monthly target was registered for a series that does not publish monthly, so no matching print can arrive inside the grading window. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) next print leaning up to 512.42Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) had to be at or above 511.70 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 518.30 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA): 511.7 to 518.3 (+1.29%) — predicted up, bar ≥511.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-15): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning down to 9,564Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 16, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or below 9,804 by 2026-08-12. | This prediction could not be graded. | Unable to grade | Unable to grade: the data source was retired for licensing reasons the day after this prediction was registered, so no further prints can arrive inside the grading window. |
| Unemployment Rate (Vancouver) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Vancouver CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 6.70 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Vancouver CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA): 7.1 to 6.7 (-5.63%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-18): Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate next print leaning up to 238,743Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate had to be at or above 238,502 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 238,502 on 2026-08-19. | Inconclusive | Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate: 238,500 to 238,500 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-14): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7312Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 18, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.72 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 0.75 on 2026-08-17. | Correct | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.72 to 0.75 (+4.17%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.72 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-14): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 97.85Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 97.45 by 2026-09-06. | Actual value 96.96 on 2026-08-17. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 97.45 to 96.96 (-0.50%) — predicted up, bar ≥97.45 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-12): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.7079Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.71 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 0.7 on 2026-08-13. | Inconclusive | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.71 to 0.7 (-1.41%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-10): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7149Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.7 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 0.69 on 2026-08-11. | Incorrect | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.7 to 0.69 (-1.43%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.7 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-06): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7011Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 8, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.69 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 0.68 on 2026-08-07. | Inconclusive | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.69 to 0.68 (-1.45%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-04): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.7007Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.72 by 2026-08-27. | Actual value 0.73 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.72 to 0.73 (+1.39%) — predicted down, bar ≤0.72 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-31): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7512Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 5, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.74 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 0.72 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.74 to 0.72 (-2.70%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.74 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-29): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7393Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.73 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 0.74 on 2026-07-30. | Correct | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.73 to 0.74 (+1.37%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.73 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-27): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.6821Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.69 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 0.69 on 2026-07-28. | Inconclusive | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.69 to 0.69 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-21): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.7379Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.74 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 0.69 on 2026-07-27. | Correct | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr): 0.74 to 0.69 (-6.76%) — predicted down, bar ≤0.74 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 19, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-18. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.025 at deadline 2026-08-18 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 19, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-18. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≤ 2.475 at deadline 2026-08-18 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-18Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-08-18. | Inconclusive | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to rise by 2026-08-18Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 18,594,899 on 2026-08-18. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Household Net Worth last observed 2025-10-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-18); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall (at or below 2222744.45) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or below 2,222,744 by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-08-18. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP Monthly (All Industries) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-18); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) next print leaning up to 30.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) had to be at or above 21.52 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 15.55 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly): 21.52 to 15.55 (-27.74%) — predicted up, bar ≥21.52 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Gasoline (Canada) next print leaning down to 221.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 26, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) had to be at or below 245.80 by 2026-09-15. | Actual value 254.60 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Gasoline (Canada): 245.8 to 254.6 (+3.58%) — predicted down, bar ≤245.8 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Food (Ontario) next print leaning up to 202.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) had to be at or above 202.40 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 202.80 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI Food (Ontario): 202.4 to 202.8 (+0.20%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Transportation (Ontario) next print leaning up to 184.41Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) had to be at or above 184.20 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 186.80 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI Transportation (Ontario): 184.2 to 186.8 (+1.41%) — predicted up, bar ≥184.2 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BoC CPI-Common next print leaning down to 2.54Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common had to be at or below 2.60 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.70 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Common: 2.6 to 2.7 (+3.85%) — predicted down, bar ≤2.6 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BoC CPI-Median next print leaning down to 1.83Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median had to be at or below 1.90 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Median: 1.9 to 2 (+5.26%) — predicted down, bar ≤1.9 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BoC CPI-Trim next print leaning down to 1.72Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or below 1.80 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Trim: 1.8 to 1.9 (+5.56%) — predicted down, bar ≤1.8 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Inflation next print leaning down to 2.38Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.80 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted down, bar ≤2.8 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY next print leaning down to 1.68Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY had to be at or below 1.70 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.00 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY: 1.698 to 1.999 (+17.71%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY next print leaning down to 2.48Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY had to be at or below 2.49 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.55 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY: 2.486 to 2.554 (+2.74%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY next print leaning down to 1.80Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY had to be at or below 1.80 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1.93 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY: 1.802 to 1.926 (+6.87%) — predicted down, bar ≤1.802 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY next print leaning down to 2.73Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY had to be at or below 2.73 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.93 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY: 2.734 to 2.927 (+7.06%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY next print leaning down to 3.88Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY had to be at or below 3.89 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3.14 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY: 3.89 to 3.138 (-19.34%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.89 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Food, YoY next print leaning down to 3.46Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Food, YoY had to be at or below 3.48 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3.05 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food, YoY: 3.476 to 3.049 (-12.30%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY next print leaning up to 1.89Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY had to be at or above 1.80 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 4.49 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY: 1.804 to 4.487 (+148.74%) — predicted up, bar ≥1.804 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY next print leaning up to 7.58Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY had to be at or above 7.40 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3.35 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY: 7.395 to 3.347 (-54.74%) — predicted up, bar ≥7.395 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Goods, YoY next print leaning up to 3.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Goods, YoY had to be at or above 3.51 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 3.71 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Goods, YoY: 3.505 to 3.709 (+5.81%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY next print leaning up to -0.2912Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY had to be at or above -0.3291 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value -0.2738 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY: -0.3291 to -0.2738 (-16.80%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Natural Gas, YoY next print leaning up to -0.6197Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -0.7663 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value -7.47 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY: -0.7663 to -7.473 (+875.27%) — predicted up, bar ≥-0.7663 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY next print leaning up to 0.2147Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY had to be at or above 0.2048 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 0.3586 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY: 0.2048 to 0.3586 (+75.09%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.2048 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Services, YoY next print leaning down to 2.23Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Services, YoY had to be at or below 2.24 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.50 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Services, YoY: 2.24 to 2.503 (+11.71%) — predicted down, bar ≤2.24 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY next print leaning down to 1.68Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY had to be at or below 1.70 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 2.00 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY: 1.698 to 1.999 (+17.71%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Transportation, YoY next print leaning up to 6.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Transportation, YoY had to be at or above 6.72 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 7.79 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI — Transportation, YoY: 6.721 to 7.79 (+15.91%) — predicted up, bar ≥6.721 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY next print leaning up to 1.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY had to be at or above 1.75 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1.75 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY: 1.748 to 1.748 (-0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY next print leaning up to 6.00Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY had to be at or above 5.98 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 6.11 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY: 5.981 to 6.111 (+2.18%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) next print leaning up to 204.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) had to be at or above 203.60 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 204.10 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario): 203.6 to 204.1 (+0.25%) — predicted up, bar ≥203.6 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Energy (Canada) next print leaning down to 206.30Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — Energy (Canada) had to be at or below 215.60 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 221 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (Canada): 215.6 to 221 (+2.50%) — predicted down, bar ≤215.6 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Food from Stores next print leaning down to 199.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — Food from Stores had to be at or below 200.30 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 200.50 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food from Stores: 200.3 to 200.5 (+0.10%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) next print leaning up to 158.81Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) had to be at or above 158.60 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 158.60 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario): 158.6 to 158.6 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI — Shelter (Canada) next print leaning up to 190.39Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) had to be at or above 190.20 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 190.30 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Shelter (Canada): 190.2 to 190.3 (+0.05%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads next print leaning down to -63.94Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or below -63.80 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value -63.78 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: -63.8 to -63.78 (-0.03%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-17): Canadian Rate Squeeze Index next print leaning down to -0.5609Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 17, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index had to be at or below -0.55 by 2026-09-07. | Actual value -0.75 on 2026-08-18. | Correct | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index: -0.55 to -0.75 (+36.36%) — predicted down, bar ≤-0.55 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-14): gold next print leaning up to 4,388Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,380 by 2026-09-06. | Actual value 4,459 on 2026-08-17. | Correct | gold: 4380 to 4459 (+1.80%) — predicted up, bar ≥4380 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI (inflation) nowcast (2026-06-01): next CPI print leaning mixed ↔Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at 2.80 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Private Transportation CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Private Transportation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 182.90 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Private Transportation: 185.9 to 182.9 (-1.61%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Gasoline CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 254.60 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Gasoline (Canada): 273.7 to 254.6 (-6.98%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-27): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,424Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 28, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,413 by 2026-08-18. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-24): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning down to 0.6902Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 28, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or below 0.7 by 2026-08-18. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-20): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7317Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 22, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.73 by 2026-08-18. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.473) within 14dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.47 by 2026-08-17. | Actual value 1.39 on 2026-08-17. | Incorrect | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.403 to 1.387 (-1.17%) — predicted up, bar ≥1.473 MISSED — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall by 2026-08-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-17. | Actual value 227.83 on 2026-08-17. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-17); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) expected to fall by 2026-08-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-17. | Actual value 916 on 2026-08-17. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-17); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Winnipeg, Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) expected to fall by 2026-08-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | Winnipeg, Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-17. | Actual value 851 on 2026-08-17. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Winnipeg, Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-17); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to fall by 2026-08-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-17. | Actual value 20,265 on 2026-08-17. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-17); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-14): S&P/TSX Composite Index next print leaning up to 35,361Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 16, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or above 35,320 by 2026-08-12. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Lag-harvest: Municipal Development Charges expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Municipal Development Charges was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Inconclusive | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Lag-harvest: Municipal Development Charges expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Municipal Development Charges was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Inconclusive | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity next print leaning up to 14.84Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 12, 2026 | Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity had to be at or above 14.23 by 2026-12-12. | Actual value 13.86 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity: 14.23 to 13.86 (-2.60%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity) next print leaning up to 18.33Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity) had to be at or above 17.96 by 2026-09-16. | Actual value 17.41 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity): 17.96 to 17.41 (-3.06%) — predicted up, bar ≥17.96 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-13): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.20Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 15, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.23 by 2026-09-05. | Actual value 3.28 on 2026-08-14. | Incorrect | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.23 to 3.28 (+1.55%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.23 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) next print leaning up to 2,018Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) had to be at or above 2,014 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2,031 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54): 2014 to 2031 (+0.82%) — predicted up, bar ≥2014 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-16. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FALL; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-13): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 97.83Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 15, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 97.42 by 2026-09-05. | Actual value 97.45 on 2026-08-14. | Inconclusive | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 97.42 to 97.45 (+0.03%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to fall by 2026-08-15Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 4.17 on 2026-08-15. | Incorrect | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY: 3.424 to 4.171 (+21.82%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331) next print leaning up to 6,464,786Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331) had to be at or above 6,437,646 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 6,737,810 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331): 6,438,000 to 6,738,000 (+4.66%) — predicted up, bar ≥6,438,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio next print leaning down to 1.60Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 18, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio had to be at or below 1.61 by 2026-09-07. | Actual value 1.61 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: 1.612 to 1.609 (-0.19%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) next print leaning down to -0.4953Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 18, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) had to be at or below -0.432 by 2026-09-07. | Actual value 0.025 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US): -0.432 to 0.025 (-105.79%) — predicted down, bar ≤-0.432 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) next print leaning down to 140,463,941Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 17, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) had to be at or below 140,791,742 by 2026-09-06. | Actual value 136,503,194 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA): 140,800,000 to 136,500,000 (-3.05%) — predicted down, bar ≤140,800,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-12): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.30 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 3.23 on 2026-08-13. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.3 to 3.23 (-2.12%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.3 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Total Electricity Generation (Canada) next print leaning down to 49.90Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) had to be at or below 50.17 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 49.01 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Total Electricity Generation (Canada): 50.17 to 49.01 (-2.31%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast - registered 8 times, same grade | Jun 30, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-14. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US Producer Price Index (YoY) next print leaning down to 8.71Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 17, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | US Producer Price Index (YoY) had to be at or below 10.11 by 2026-09-06. | Actual value 8.27 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | US Producer Price Index (YoY): 10.11 to 8.27 (-18.20%) — predicted down, bar ≤10.11 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-11): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 36,528Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 36,476 by 2026-09-04. | Actual value 36,662 on 2026-08-12. | Correct | TSX Composite: 36,480 to 36,660 (+0.51%) — predicted up, bar ≥36,480 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-11): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 95.68Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 13, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 95.90 by 2026-09-03. | Actual value 96.94 on 2026-08-12. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 95.9 to 96.94 (+1.08%) — predicted down, bar ≤95.9 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Municipal Development Charges next print leaning up to 82,323Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Municipal Development Charges had to be at or above 82,000 by 2026-08-14. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Inconclusive | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US CPI Year-over-Year next print leaning down to 3.40Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 16, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | US CPI Year-over-Year had to be at or below 3.73 by 2026-09-05. | Actual value 3.54 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | US CPI Year-over-Year: 3.73 to 3.54 (-5.09%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.73 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Building Permit Units (Toronto) next print leaning up to 24,088Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Building Permit Units (Toronto) had to be at or above 24,035 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 26,106 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Building Permit Units (Toronto): 24,040 to 26,110 (+8.62%) — predicted up, bar ≥24,040 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canadian Oil Production (Monthly) next print leaning up to 23,278,870Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Canadian Oil Production (Monthly) had to be at or above 23,241,717 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 23,089,067 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Canadian Oil Production (Monthly): 23,240,000 to 23,090,000 (-0.66%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-07): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 36,461Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 6 times, same grade | Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 36,381 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 36,458 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | TSX Composite: 36,380 to 36,460 (+0.21%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-07): gold next print leaning up to 4,350Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,341 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 4,362 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | gold: 4341 to 4362 (+0.49%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-07): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 96.06Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 96.19 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 96.13 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 96.19 to 96.13 (-0.06%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio next print leaning down to 62.49Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 5, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio had to be at or below 62.56 by 2026-12-05. | Actual value 60.20 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio: 62.56 to 60.2 (-3.77%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): National Bank — Efficiency Ratio next print leaning down to 54.94Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | National Bank — Efficiency Ratio had to be at or below 55.10 by 2026-11-28. | Actual value 56.04 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | National Bank — Efficiency Ratio: 55.1 to 56.04 (+1.71%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 136.81Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 137.50 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 135 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps): 137.5 to 135 (-1.82%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 47.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 49.70 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 40.60 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans): 49.7 to 40.6 (-18.31%) — predicted down, bar ≤49.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio next print leaning down to 63.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio had to be at or below 63.37 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 60.40 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio: 63.37 to 60.4 (-4.69%) — predicted down, bar ≤63.37 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 48.11Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 59.30 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 58 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans): 59.3 to 58 (-2.19%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 150.033Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 150.70 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 145.20 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps): 150.7 to 145.2 (-3.65%) — predicted down, bar ≤150.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 70.72Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 71.50 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 73.90 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans): 71.5 to 73.9 (+3.36%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): CIBC — Efficiency Ratio next print leaning up to 55.39Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CIBC — Efficiency Ratio had to be at or above 55.30 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 56.72 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | CIBC — Efficiency Ratio: 55.3 to 56.72 (+2.57%) — predicted up, bar ≥55.3 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning up to 152.22Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or above 150.50 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 149.80 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps): 150.5 to 149.8 (-0.47%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 35.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 42.60 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 44.80 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans): 42.6 to 44.8 (+5.16%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 152.35Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 152.50 by 2026-10-31. | Actual value 139.10 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps): 152.5 to 139.1 (-8.79%) — predicted down, bar ≤152.5 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-09): Canadian Rate Squeeze Index next print leaning down to -0.5615Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 14 times, same grade | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index had to be at or below -0.55 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value -0.55 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index: -0.55 to -0.55 (-0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-06): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.27Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 6 times, same grade | Aug 8, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.22 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 3.26 on 2026-08-07. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.22 to 3.26 (+1.24%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.22 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada National Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada National Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 21,215 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 2,670 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,200 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Calgary CMA expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment: Calgary CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,048 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment: Calgary CMA last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Vancouver CMA expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment: Vancouver CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,699 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment: Vancouver CMA last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 22,669 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Public Administration (NAICS 91) expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment — Public Administration (NAICS 91) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,241 on 2026-08-10. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Employment Naics 91 Public Administration Monthly Sa Canada' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Construction Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,646 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Construction Employment (Canada) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Finance & Insurance Employment expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,492 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 3,010 on 2026-08-10. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Employment Naics 62 Health Care Social Assistance Monthly Sa Canada' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Quebec Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 5.60 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Quebec Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 1,200 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 21,215 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Hamilton CMA expected to rise by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 459 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Private Sector Capital Investment expected to fall by 2026-08-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Private Sector Capital Investment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 132,448 on 2026-08-10. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Private Sector Capital Investment last observed 2026-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-10); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Total Merchandise Exports next print leaning up to 77,226Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 14, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | Total Merchandise Exports had to be at or above 77,099 by 2026-09-03. | Actual value 77,486 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Total Merchandise Exports: 77,100 to 77,490 (+0.50%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Manufacturing Exports next print leaning down to 29,390Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Exports had to be at or below 29,678 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 29,703 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Manufacturing Exports: 29,680 to 29,700 (+0.08%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Energy Exports next print leaning up to 20,788Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Energy Exports had to be at or above 20,570 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 18,371 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Energy Exports: 20,570 to 18,370 (-10.69%) — predicted up, bar ≥20,570 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Terms of Trade Index next print leaning up to 116.02Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Terms of Trade Index had to be at or above 114.91 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 109.79 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Terms of Trade Index: 114.9 to 109.8 (-4.46%) — predicted up, bar ≥114.9 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Big Six avg — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,551,701Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Big Six avg — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,546,757 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,608,781 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Big Six avg — Total Assets: 1,547,000 to 1,609,000 (+4.01%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,547,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Building permits value in Toronto will decline next month after the spikeMonthly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | Residential Permit Value (Toronto) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 2,015,220 on 2026-08-10. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Building Permit Value last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-27); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): OSFI Stress Test Qualifying Rate next print leaning up to 8.10Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | OSFI Stress Test Qualifying Rate had to be at or above 8.09 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 8.09 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | OSFI Stress Test Qualifying Rate: 8.09 to 8.09 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-06): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 36,182Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 7 times, same grade | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 36,136 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 36,381 on 2026-08-07. | Correct | TSX Composite: 36,140 to 36,380 (+0.68%) — predicted up, bar ≥36,140 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment: Calgary CMA next print leaning up to 1,050Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Employment: Calgary CMA had to be at or above 1,048 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,048 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Employment: Calgary CMA: 1048 to 1048 (-0.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment: Halifax CMA next print leaning up to 298.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Employment: Halifax CMA had to be at or above 297.50 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 296.40 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Employment: Halifax CMA: 297.5 to 296.4 (-0.37%) — predicted up, bar ≥297.5 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment: Vancouver CMA next print leaning up to 1,692Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Employment: Vancouver CMA had to be at or above 1,689 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,699 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment: Vancouver CMA: 1689 to 1699 (+0.59%) — predicted up, bar ≥1689 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment: Winnipeg CMA next print leaning up to 514.41Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Employment: Winnipeg CMA had to be at or above 513.70 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 520.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment: Winnipeg CMA: 513.7 to 520.2 (+1.27%) — predicted up, bar ≥513.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): New Brunswick — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 404.42Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | New Brunswick — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 406 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 406.20 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | New Brunswick — Total Employment (LFS): 406 to 406.2 (+0.05%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 246.00Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 243.80 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 243.60 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS): 243.8 to 243.6 (-0.08%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 537.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 533.30 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 537.90 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS): 533.3 to 537.9 (+0.86%) — predicted up, bar ≥533.3 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 96.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 96.60 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 96 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS): 96.6 to 96 (-0.62%) — predicted down, bar ≤96.6 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 617.43Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 616.70 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 619.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS): 616.7 to 619.2 (+0.41%) — predicted up, bar ≥616.7 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 748.19Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 749.70 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 755.60 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS): 749.7 to 755.6 (+0.79%) — predicted down, bar ≤749.7 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 4,618Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 4,606 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 4,607 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS): 4606 to 4607 (+0.02%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) next print leaning up to 711.61Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) had to be at or above 710.90 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 723.10 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41): 710.9 to 723.1 (+1.72%) — predicted up, bar ≥710.9 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning up to 7.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or above 7 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 7 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 7 to 7 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Jobs (unemployment rate) nowcast (2026-06-01): next jobs report (LFS) leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.50 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.5 to 6.4 (-1.54%) — predicted up, bar ≥6.5 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) next print leaning up to 3,007Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) had to be at or above 3,002 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 3,010 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62): 3002 to 3010 (+0.28%) — predicted up, bar ≥3002 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 2,688Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 2,677 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2,670 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS): 2677 to 2670 (-0.27%) — predicted up, bar ≥2677 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate next print leaning up to 69.63Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 69.50 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 69.20 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate: 69.5 to 69.2 (-0.43%) — predicted up, bar ≥69.5 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Alberta Construction Labor Availability Index next print leaning up to 267.26Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta Construction Labor Availability Index had to be at or above 266.60 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 274.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Alberta Construction Labor Availability Index: 266.6 to 274.2 (+2.85%) — predicted up, bar ≥266.6 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) next print leaning up to 37.27Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) had to be at or above 37.20 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 37.17 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada): 37.2 to 37.17 (-0.08%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change next print leaning down to 3.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change had to be at or below 3.30 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2.79 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change: 3.305 to 2.793 (-15.48%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.305 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Average Weekly Hours Worked, Main Job next print leaning up to 33.81Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Average Weekly Hours Worked, Main Job had to be at or above 33.70 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 31.80 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Average Weekly Hours Worked, Main Job: 33.7 to 31.8 (-5.64%) — predicted up, bar ≥33.7 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 2,942Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 2,937 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2,955 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS): 2937 to 2955 (+0.61%) — predicted up, bar ≥2937 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): British Columbia — Labor Force Participation Rate next print leaning up to 64.98Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | British Columbia — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 64.90 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 65.10 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | British Columbia — Labor Force Participation Rate: 64.9 to 65.1 (+0.31%) — predicted up, bar ≥64.9 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning up to 6.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or above 6.50 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 6.20 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 6.5 to 6.2 (-4.62%) — predicted up, bar ≥6.5 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada National Unemployment Rate next print leaning up to 6.53Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.50 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.5 to 6.4 (-1.54%) — predicted up, bar ≥6.5 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11) next print leaning down to 224.92Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11) had to be at or below 225.40 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 215.80 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11): 225.4 to 215.8 (-4.26%) — predicted down, bar ≤225.4 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) next print leaning up to 344.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) had to be at or above 344 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 339.10 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21): 344 to 339.1 (-1.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥344 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56) next print leaning up to 698.68Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56) had to be at or above 697.80 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 707.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56): 697.8 to 707.2 (+1.35%) — predicted up, bar ≥697.8 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61) next print leaning up to 1,579Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61) had to be at or above 1,577 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1,584 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61): 1577 to 1584 (+0.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥1577 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) next print leaning up to 1,206Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) had to be at or above 1,204 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1,200 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72): 1204 to 1200 (-0.37%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Part-Time next print leaning up to 3,822Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Part-Time had to be at or above 3,817 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 3,853 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Part-Time: 3817 to 3853 (+0.96%) — predicted up, bar ≥3817 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-05): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 97.22Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 7, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 96.73 by 2026-08-28. | Actual value 96.53 on 2026-08-06. | Inconclusive | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 96.73 to 96.53 (-0.21%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) next print leaning down to 13.49Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) had to be at or below 57 by 2026-08-25. | Actual value -23 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change): 57 to -23 (-140.35%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.0782) within 51dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Aug 7, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.08 by 2026-08-07. | Actual value -63.80 on 2026-08-07. | Inconclusive | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: -63.9 to -63.8 (-0.15%) — predicted RISE; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment Rate (Canada) next print leaning up to 60.89Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Employment Rate (Canada) had to be at or above 60.80 by 2026-09-10. | Actual value 60.90 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment Rate (Canada): 60.8 to 60.9 (+0.16%) — predicted up, bar ≥60.8 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Construction Labour Availability next print leaning up to 560.56Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Construction Labour Availability had to be at or above 560 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 575.30 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Construction Labour Availability: 560 to 575.3 (+2.73%) — predicted up, bar ≥560 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) next print leaning up to 1,476Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) had to be at or above 1,474 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 1,492 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias): 1474 to 1492 (+1.22%) — predicted up, bar ≥1474 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Construction Employment (Canada) next print leaning up to 1,632Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Construction Employment (Canada) had to be at or above 1,630 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1,646 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Construction Employment (Canada): 1630 to 1646 (+0.96%) — predicted up, bar ≥1630 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-05): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.17Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Aug 7, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.17 by 2026-08-28. | Actual value 3.22 on 2026-08-06. | Incorrect | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.17 to 3.22 (+1.58%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.17 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-04): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.13Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.17 by 2026-08-27. | Actual value 3.17 on 2026-08-05. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.17 to 3.17 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BCPI — Excluding Energy next print leaning down to 551.67Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | BCPI — Excluding Energy had to be at or below 573.22 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value 571.55 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | BCPI — Excluding Energy: 573.2 to 571.5 (-0.29%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada) next print leaning up to 4,268Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada) had to be at or above 4,243 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 3,856 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada): 4243 to 3856 (-9.14%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 77,486 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Merchandise Exports — Total: 77,100 to 77,490 (+0.50%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 77,486 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Merchandise Exports — Total: 75,160 to 77,490 (+3.09%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Merchandise Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 77,486 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Merchandise Exports — Total: 75,160 to 77,490 (+3.09%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA) next print leaning up to 73,068Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA) had to be at or above 72,856 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 73,631 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA): 72,860 to 73,630 (+1.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) next print leaning down to 0.7824Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) had to be at or below 0.794 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 0.79 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y): 0.794 to 0.79 (-0.50%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-31): TSX Composite next print leaning down to 35,130Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or below 35,226 by 2026-08-27. | Actual value 35,802 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 35,230 to 35,800 (+1.63%) — predicted down, bar ≤35,230 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-31): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.30Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Aug 5, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.27 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 3.17 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.27 to 3.17 (-3.06%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.27 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Interbank Funding Velocity next print leaning up to 53,284,576,325Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Interbank Funding Velocity had to be at or above 53,043,651,068 by 2026-08-25. | Actual value 54,348,857,256 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Interbank Funding Velocity: 53,040,000,000 to 54,350,000,000 (+2.46%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-05Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 0.7108 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | CAD/USD Exchange Rate: 0.7227 to 0.7108 (-1.64%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.1) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.10 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 3.2 to 2.8 (-12.50%) — predicted down, bar ≤2.1 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI trim remains above 2.0% despite oil collapseAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 2 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 1.80 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Trim: 1.8 ≥ 2 at deadline 2026-08-05 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Mortgage arrears breach 0.30% within 90 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Mortgage Arrears Rate (FSR) had to be at or above 0.3 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 0.22 on 2026-08-05. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Mortgage Arrears Rate (FSR) last observed 2025-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-05); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Insolvency filings accelerate above 4,000/monthAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Consumer Insolvency Filings had to be at or above 4,000 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 4,633 on 2026-08-05. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Consumer Insolvency Filings last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-05); the call is untested without a new observation |
| TSX composite pulls back below 32,500Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or below 32,500 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 35,226 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 35,230 ≤ 32,500 at deadline 2026-08-05 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| CMHC national risk score remains above 65Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Cmhc hma risk national had to be at or above 65 by 2026-08-05. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Cmhc hma risk national' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Housing starts decline from current levelAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 290,000 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 227.83 on 2026-08-05. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): the stated level 290000 is not on the same scale as this reading, which has run between 75.103 and 290.954 — the bar looks like a unit mistake rather than a forecast, so the call cannot be judged either way; inconclusive |
| GDP construction sector remains above 7.0Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | GDP — Construction had to be at or above 7 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 170,284 on 2026-08-05. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Construction last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-05); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Employment full-time percentage remains below 50%Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Full-Time Employment Share had to be at or below 50 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 82.82 on 2026-08-05. | Incorrect | Full-Time Employment Share: 82.82 ≤ 50 at deadline 2026-08-05 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Imported Cost Inflation (Total) next print leaning up to 4.93Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | Imported Cost Inflation (Total) had to be at or above 4.85 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 7.43 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Imported Cost Inflation (Total): 4.85 to 7.43 (+53.20%) — predicted up, bar ≥4.85 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BoC Policy Rate next print leaning up to 2.26Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 53,889 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Exports — United States: 53,720 to 53,890 (+0.31%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Trade Imports from United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 43,909 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Imports — United States: 42,100 to 43,910 (+4.31%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 53,889 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Exports — to United States: 53,720 to 53,890 (+0.31%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Imports — United States next print leaning up to 42,176Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States had to be at or above 42,097 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 43,909 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Imports — United States: 42,100 to 43,910 (+4.31%) — predicted up, bar ≥42,100 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Services Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 21,019 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Services Imports — Total: 20,500 to 21,020 (+2.54%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 53,889 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Exports — United States: 51,970 to 53,890 (+3.68%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 53,889 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Exports — to United States: 51,970 to 53,890 (+3.68%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Monetary Policy Stance (composite) next print leaning up to 2.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Monetary Policy Stance (composite): 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Imports — from EU ex-UK next print leaning up to 7,552Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Imports — from EU ex-UK had to be at or above 7,533 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 7,106 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Imports — from EU ex-UK: 7533 to 7106 (-5.68%) — predicted up, bar ≥7533 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Imports — from United States next print leaning up to 42,398Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Imports — from United States had to be at or above 42,097 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 43,909 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Imports — from United States: 42,100 to 43,910 (+4.31%) — predicted up, bar ≥42,100 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 357,360,557Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 355,943,662 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 360,351,006 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending: 355,900,000 to 360,400,000 (+1.24%) — predicted up, bar ≥355,900,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 177,188,123Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 176,358,381 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 180,006,106 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding: 176,400,000 to 180,000,000 (+2.07%) — predicted up, bar ≥176,400,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): National Bank — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 131,660,400Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | National Bank — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 131,088,029 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 133,180,662 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | National Bank — Business & Government Lending: 131,100,000 to 133,200,000 (+1.60%) — predicted up, bar ≥131,100,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): National Bank — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 33,093,997Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 32,975,725 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 33,456,378 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding: 32,980,000 to 33,460,000 (+1.46%) — predicted up, bar ≥32,980,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total next print leaning up to 18,212,870Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total had to be at or above 18,174,226 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 18,805,623 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total: 18,170,000 to 18,810,000 (+3.47%) — predicted up, bar ≥18,170,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Exports — to United States next print leaning up to 54,130Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Exports — to United States had to be at or above 53,724 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 53,889 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Exports — to United States: 53,720 to 53,890 (+0.31%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 256,154,167Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 255,540,854 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 260,218,712 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending: 255,500,000 to 260,200,000 (+1.83%) — predicted up, bar ≥255,500,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 60,612,406Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 60,441,498 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 60,859,645 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding: 60,440,000 to 60,860,000 (+0.69%) — predicted up, bar ≥60,440,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 194,066,061Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 193,595,728 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 194,298,469 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 193,600,000 to 194,300,000 (+0.36%) — predicted up, bar ≥193,600,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,503,697Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,499,543 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,532,978 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets: 1,500,000 to 1,533,000 (+2.23%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,500,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 267,721,176Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 267,100,638 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 273,230,534 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending: 267,100,000 to 273,200,000 (+2.29%) — predicted up, bar ≥267,100,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 24,083,975Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 24,046,771 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 24,232,125 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding: 24,050,000 to 24,230,000 (+0.77%) — predicted up, bar ≥24,050,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 368,013,219Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 367,044,929 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 367,807,073 on 2026-05-31. | Inconclusive | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 367,000,000 to 367,800,000 (+0.21%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,525,667Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,521,521 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,567,151 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets: 1,522,000 to 1,567,000 (+3.00%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,522,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility next print leaning down to 3.55Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility had to be at or below 3.61 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 3.31 on 2026-08-01. | Correct | CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility: 3.614 to 3.315 (-8.27%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.614 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 233,531,919Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 232,528,708 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 235,047,305 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | CIBC — Business & Government Lending: 232,500,000 to 235,000,000 (+1.08%) — predicted up, bar ≥232,500,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 289,252,811Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 288,521,873 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 289,176,816 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 288,500,000 to 289,200,000 (+0.23%) — predicted up, bar ≥288,500,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,162,929Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | CIBC — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,160,560 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,167,737 on 2026-05-31. | Inconclusive | CIBC — Total Assets: 1,161,000 to 1,168,000 (+0.62%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): National Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 117,632,674Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | National Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 117,122,575 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 119,385,465 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | National Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 117,100,000 to 119,400,000 (+1.93%) — predicted up, bar ≥117,100,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 501,852,004Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 499,974,741 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 503,685,133 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 500,000,000 to 503,700,000 (+0.74%) — predicted up, bar ≥500,000,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): TD Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 351,120,980Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | TD Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 349,703,516 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 348,271,079 on 2026-05-31. | Incorrect | TD Bank — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 349,700,000 to 348,300,000 (-0.41%) — predicted up, bar ≥349,700,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): TD Bank — Total Assets next print leaning up to 2,092,078Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | TD Bank — Total Assets had to be at or above 2,085,106 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 2,114,690 on 2026-05-31. | Correct | TD Bank — Total Assets: 2,085,000 to 2,115,000 (+1.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,085,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BoC Overnight Rate next print leaning down to 2.24Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: Energy vs Composite expected to rise by 2026-08-04Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Relative Strength: Energy vs Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 16.43 on 2026-08-04. | Correct | Relative Strength: Energy vs Composite: 0.6435 to 16.43 (+2453.22%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Business closures exceed openings again in next reporting periodAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Business Closures (Canada) had to be at or above 46,000 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 45,536 on 2026-08-04. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Business Sector Closures Canada' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| TSX composite declines below 32,500Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or below 32,500 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 35,226 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 35,230 ≤ 32,500 at deadline 2026-08-04 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Mortgage arrears breach 0.35% when next data is publishedAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Mortgage Arrears Rate (FSR) had to be at or above 0.35 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 0.22 on 2026-08-04. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Mortgage Arrears Rate (FSR) last observed 2025-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-04); the call is untested without a new observation |
| GoC 10yr yield rises above 3.80% as fiscal risk premium expandsAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.80 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 3.45 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | Government Bond 10Y Yield: 3.45 ≥ 3.8 at deadline 2026-08-04 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Job vacancy rate declines below 7.5% as structural mismatch resolves downwardAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Job Vacancy Rate (Canada, monthly canonical) had to be at or below 7.50 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-04. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Job Vacancy Rate (Canada, monthly canonical) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-04); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Employment full-time percentage declines further below 48%Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Full-Time Employment Share had to be at or below 47.50 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 82.82 on 2026-08-04. | Incorrect | Full-Time Employment Share: 82.82 ≤ 47.5 at deadline 2026-08-04 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Housing starts decline below 240,000 annualized within 90 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 240,000 by 2026-08-04. | Actual value 227.83 on 2026-08-04. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): the stated level 240000 is not on the same scale as this reading, which has run between 75.103 and 290.954 — the bar looks like a unit mistake rather than a forecast, so the call cannot be judged either way; inconclusive |
| CMHC national housing risk score rises above 72Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 | Cmhc hma risk national had to be at or above 72 by 2026-08-04. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Cmhc hma risk national' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Fed Policy Stance next print leaning down to 3.61Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | Fed Policy Stance had to be at or below 3.62 by 2026-09-23. | Actual value 3.61 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Fed Policy Stance: 3.615 to 3.615 (-0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US 2-Year Treasury Yield next print leaning down to 4.10Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | US 2-Year Treasury Yield had to be at or below 4.11 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 4.22 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | US 2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.11 to 4.22 (+2.68%) — predicted down, bar ≤4.11 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BoC-Fed Policy Spread next print leaning up to -1.38Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | BoC-Fed Policy Spread had to be at or above -1.38 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value -1.38 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | BoC-Fed Policy Spread: -1.38 to -1.38 (-0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US Fed Funds Rate next print leaning down to 3.62Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | US Fed Funds Rate had to be at or below 3.63 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value 3.63 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | US Fed Funds Rate: 3.63 to 3.63 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.71) within 7dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.71 by 2026-08-03. | Actual value 1.40 on 2026-08-03. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.411 to 1.403 (-0.60%) — predicted down, bar ≤0.71 MISSED Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-08-03Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 5 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-03. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-08-03. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP Monthly (All Industries) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-03); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2026-08-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-03. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-08-03. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP Monthly (All Industries) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-03); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 59,091 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 18,636 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 9,725,432 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 9,725,432 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Goods-Producing Industries expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 598,673 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1,770,490 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — All Services-Producing Industries last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Federal Government Public Administration expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 170,274 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP: Public Administration last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Retail Sales expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Retail Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 27,886,258 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Retail Sales last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Computer Systems Design & Related Services expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 56,064 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1,226 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Job Vacancies: Education expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Job Vacancies: Education was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 16,575 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Job Vacancies: Education last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Mortgage-Bond Spread next print leaning down to 299.88Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Mortgage-Bond Spread had to be at or below 303 by 2026-08-02. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Mortgage-Bond Spread nothing published since 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 9,920,198 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Household Credit Growth expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Household Credit Growth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1.81 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Household Credit Growth last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 18,174,226 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1,179 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Goods-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 598,673 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 73,707,680 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (BoC Policy Rate last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 18,174,226 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1,379 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Public Administration expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 170,274 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP: Public Administration last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Banking & Other Depository Credit Intermediation expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 90,096 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Food Manufacturing expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | GDP — Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 30,057 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 927,146 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 927,146 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Total Merchandise Exports expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 77,099 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Merchandise Exports — Total last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA expected to rise by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 121,846 on 2026-08-02. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA last observed 2025-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-02); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 2, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-02. | Actual value 0.7052 on 2026-08-02. | Correct | CAD/USD Exchange Rate: 0.7227 to 0.7052 (-2.43%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 1,997,139Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 1,991,335 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,963,021 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 1,991,000 to 1,963,000 (-1.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,991,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 325,812Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 325,041 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 328,839 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 325,000 to 328,800 (+1.17%) — predicted up, bar ≥325,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Quebec — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning down to 15,998,416Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Quebec — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or below 16,037,312 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 16,129,898 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Quebec — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 16,040,000 to 16,130,000 (+0.58%) — predicted down, bar ≤16,040,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Retail Price Pressure (Nominal-Real Spread) next print leaning up to 3.45Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Retail Price Pressure (Nominal-Real Spread) had to be at or above 3.40 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 4.74 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Retail Price Pressure (Nominal-Real Spread): 3.4 to 4.738 (+39.35%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.4 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Retail sales nowcast (2026-04-01): next retail-sales print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Retail Sales had to be at or above 27,673,495 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 27,886,258 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Retail Sales: 27,670,000 to 27,890,000 (+0.77%) — predicted up, bar ≥27,670,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-30): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 35,575Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 5 times, same grade | Aug 2, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 35,506 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value 35,226 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 35,510 to 35,230 (-0.79%) — predicted up, bar ≥35,510 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) next print leaning up to 106.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) had to be at or above 105.90 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value 106 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite): 105.9 to 106 (+0.09%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-30): gold next print leaning up to 4,108Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,100 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 4,049 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | gold: 4100 to 4049 (-1.24%) — predicted up, bar ≥4100 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Farm Product Price Index expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Farm Product Price Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 195.80 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Farm Product Price Index last observed 2026-03-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Industrial Aggregate Wages (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted): 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Age Cohort Stress Index expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Age Cohort Stress Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1.92 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Age Cohort Stress Index last observed 2025-10-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 3 on 2026-08-01. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 202.40 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Food (Ontario) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Final Domestic Demand (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-01-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Final Domestic Demand was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2,558,296 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Final Domestic Demand last observed 2026-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 4,372 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted): 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: National Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 32,975,725 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (National Bank — HELOC Outstanding last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 499,974,741 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 176,358,381 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 3.55 on 2026-08-01. | Correct | Government Bond 10Y Yield: 3.412 to 3.55 (+4.04%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 21.52 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 150.50 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) last observed 2026-01-31, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Common expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2.70 on 2026-08-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Common: 2.6 to 2.7 (+3.85%) — predicted down — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1.70 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1.70 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 150.70 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) last observed 2026-01-31, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Big Six avg — Net Income Quarterly expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Big Six avg — Net Income Quarterly was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 3,161,663 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Big Six avg — Net Income Quarterly last observed 2026-01-31, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2,631,630 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1.40 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.398 to 1.403 (+0.34%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Average Bank Lending Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Big 6 Prime Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 4.45 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Big 6 Prime Rate: 4.45 to 4.45 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Government Bond 10Y Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 3.55 on 2026-08-01. | Correct | Government Bond 10Y Yield: 3.412 to 3.55 (+4.04%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Manufacturing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP: Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 199,607 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP: Manufacturing last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 169.90 on 2026-08-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Ontario): 169.3 to 169.9 (+0.35%) — predicted down — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 201.50 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 190.20 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI — Shelter (Canada) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: NA — Net Income (Quarterly) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,234,629 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (NA — Net Income (Quarterly) last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,087 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) last observed 2025-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Imports — South Korea expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — South Korea was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,616 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Imports — South Korea last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing: Wood Product (NAICS 321) expected to rise by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Wood Product (NAICS 321) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2,735,248 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Manufacturing: Wood Product (NAICS 321) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage: 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,212 on 2026-08-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-08-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q) next print leaning up to 4,359,164Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q) had to be at or above 4,330,236 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 4,197,328 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q): 4,330,000 to 4,197,000 (-3.07%) — predicted up, bar ≥4,330,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 2,473,243Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) had to be at or above 2,299,008 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 2,631,630 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly): 2,299,000 to 2,632,000 (+14.47%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,299,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): NA — Net Income (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 1,307,564Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) had to be at or above 1,254,393 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 1,234,629 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | NA — Net Income (Quarterly): 1,254,000 to 1,235,000 (-1.58%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): RY — Net Income (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 5,829,952Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | RY — Net Income (Quarterly) had to be at or above 5,785,115 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 5,509,069 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | RY — Net Income (Quarterly): 5,785,000 to 5,509,000 (-4.77%) — predicted up, bar ≥5,785,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total next print leaning down to 1,050,601Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total had to be at or below 1,176,127 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 1,216,578 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total: 1,176,000 to 1,217,000 (+3.44%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total next print leaning down to 543,428Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total had to be at or below 567,525 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 605,953 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total: 567,500 to 606,000 (+6.77%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total next print leaning down to 1,126,986Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total had to be at or below 1,176,127 by 2026-10-16. | Actual value 739,111 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total: 1,176,000 to 739,100 (-37.16%) — predicted down, bar ≤1,176,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada — Real Wage Growth next print leaning up to 1.88Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada — Real Wage Growth had to be at or above 1.26 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 0.1464 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Canada — Real Wage Growth: 1.26 to 0.1464 (-88.38%) — predicted up, bar ≥1.26 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| GDP (monthly output) nowcast (2026-04-01): next monthly GDP print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,352,903 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,353,000 to 2,362,000 (+0.41%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,353,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP Growth Rate next print leaning down to 1.10Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GDP Growth Rate had to be at or below 1.12 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1.67 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | GDP Growth Rate: 1.117 to 1.671 (+49.69%) — predicted down, bar ≤1.117 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) next print leaning down to 167,138Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) had to be at or below 167,554 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 167,701 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54): 167,600 to 167,700 (+0.09%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government) next print leaning up to 1,920,525Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government) had to be at or above 1,910,688 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 1,918,734 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government): 1,911,000 to 1,919,000 (+0.42%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,911,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) next print leaning up to 396,808Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) had to be at or above 389,856 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 392,844 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities): 389,900 to 392,800 (+0.77%) — predicted up, bar ≥389,900 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP Monthly (All Industries) next print leaning up to 2,368,548Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,352,903 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,353,000 to 2,362,000 (+0.41%) — predicted up, bar ≥2,353,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) next print leaning down to 44,098Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) had to be at or below 44,754 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 44,461 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11): 44,750 to 44,460 (-0.65%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) next print leaning up to 80,613Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) had to be at or above 80,439 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 80,847 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211): 80,440 to 80,850 (+0.51%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) next print leaning up to 57,937Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) had to be at or above 57,827 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 59,091 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237): 57,830 to 59,090 (+2.19%) — predicted up, bar ≥57,830 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Retail Trade next print leaning up to 125,163Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Retail Trade had to be at or above 124,888 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 124,895 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Retail Trade: 124,900 to 124,900 (+0.01%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) next print leaning up to 46,871Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) had to be at or above 46,761 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 46,734 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517): 46,760 to 46,730 (-0.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Data Processing, Hosting & Related (NAICS 518) next print leaning up to 8,651Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Data Processing, Hosting & Related (NAICS 518) had to be at or above 8,606 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 8,687 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Data Processing, Hosting & Related (NAICS 518): 8606 to 8687 (+0.94%) — predicted up, bar ≥8606 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51) next print leaning up to 83,481Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51) had to be at or above 83,315 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 83,295 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51): 83,320 to 83,300 (-0.02%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) next print leaning up to 182,453Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) had to be at or above 181,726 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 182,117 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52): 181,700 to 182,100 (+0.22%) — predicted up, bar ≥181,700 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Lessors of Real Estate (NAICS 5311) next print leaning up to 82,316Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Lessors of Real Estate (NAICS 5311) had to be at or above 82,178 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 82,303 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Lessors of Real Estate (NAICS 5311): 82,180 to 82,300 (+0.15%) — predicted up, bar ≥82,180 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) next print leaning up to 56,305Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) had to be at or above 56,151 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 56,064 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415): 56,150 to 56,060 (-0.15%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Food Services next print leaning down to 34,943Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Food Services had to be at or below 35,261 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 35,511 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Food Services: 35,260 to 35,510 (+0.71%) — predicted down, bar ≤35,260 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-29): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 91.79Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 94.25 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 95.47 on 2026-07-30. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 94.25 to 95.47 (+1.29%) — predicted down, bar ≤94.25 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Housing Affordability Threshold (composite) next print leaning up to 0.4057Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 28, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | Housing Affordability Threshold (composite) had to be at or above 0.3983 by 2026-08-18. | Actual value 0.4801 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Housing Affordability Threshold (composite): 0.3983 to 0.4801 (+20.54%) — predicted up, bar ≥0.3983 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings) next print leaning down to 4.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings) had to be at or below 4.06 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 3.35 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings): 4.06 to 3.35 (-17.49%) — predicted down, bar ≤4.06 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 107,046 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Durable Manufacturing: 107,400 to 107,000 (-0.29%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Crop Production GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 29,070 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111): 29,370 to 29,070 (-1.02%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 53,494 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72): 53,240 to 53,490 (+0.47%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Real Estate GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate (broker+lessor) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 293,048 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Real Estate (broker+lessor): 291,900 to 293,000 (+0.40%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Transportation Equipment GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Transport Equipment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 27,838 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Transport Equipment: 27,620 to 27,840 (+0.80%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| GDP nowcast: monthly GDP for 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,353,000 to 2,362,000 (+0.41%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Plastics & Rubber was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 9,143 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Plastics & Rubber: 9110 to 9143 (+0.36%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Crop Production GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 29,070 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111): 30,100 to 29,070 (-3.43%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Mining Ex-Oil and Gas GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Mining, Quarrying ex-Oil & Gas (NAICS 212) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 27,093 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Mining, Quarrying ex-Oil & Gas (NAICS 212): 26,810 to 27,090 (+1.06%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Traveller Accommodation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 18,636 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211): 18,240 to 18,640 (+2.17%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Non-Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Non-Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 92,480 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Non-Durable Manufacturing: 92,200 to 92,480 (+0.30%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Residential Construction GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Residential Construction (NAICS 236) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 55,227 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Residential Construction (NAICS 236): 53,160 to 55,230 (+3.89%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Truck Transportation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Truck Transportation (NAICS 484) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 23,510 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Truck Transportation (NAICS 484): 23,470 to 23,510 (+0.17%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Health and Social Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 192,694 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62): 191,700 to 192,700 (+0.52%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (NAICS 71) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 19,297 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (NAICS 71): 19,600 to 19,300 (-1.53%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — Food Services was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 35,511 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — Food Services: 35,060 to 35,510 (+1.29%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: US 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) — Daily Price expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | US 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) — Daily Price was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 116.64 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | US 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) — Daily Price: 116.5 to 116.6 (+0.16%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec Total Employment expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Quebec Total Employment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 4,606 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Quebec Total Employment last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value -29,727 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly last observed 2026-03-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Climate forecast 2026-07: no high-severity climate-shock event is observed in the next 30 days (Climate Shock Severity ≤ 0.5 through 30d)Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Climate Shock Severity had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 0.25 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | Climate Shock Severity: 0.25 ≤ 0.5 at deadline 2026-07-31 — climate threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Quebec) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 167 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CPI — All-Items (Quebec): 166.2 to 167 (+0.48%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 190.20 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI — Shelter (Canada) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 193,595,728 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 9,725,432 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Trim expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | BoC CPI-Trim: 1.8 to 1.9 (+5.56%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 44dchat - Directional forecast - registered 7 times, same grade | Jun 17, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1,499,543 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Bank of Montreal — Total Assets last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.5 to 6.4 (-1.54%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 54.80 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) last observed 2026-01-31, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1,001,251 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 21,215 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA): 21,140 to 21,210 (+0.36%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario Retail Trade Total (SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Ontario Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 27,886,258 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Ontario Retail Trade Total (SA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Vancouver CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Vancouver CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 4,980,788 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Vancouver CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Architectural, Engineering & Related Services expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 167,554 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Machinery Mfg was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 19,470 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Machinery Mfg last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Machinery Mfg was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 19,470 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Machinery Mfg last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 133.75 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) last observed 2026-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 22,669 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA): 22,610 to 22,670 (+0.27%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2,458,876 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Calgary CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Calgary CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 3,342,009 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Calgary CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Farm Product Price Index expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Farm Product Price Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 195.80 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Farm Product Price Index last observed 2026-03-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 128,030 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Real Estate expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 310,709 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Real Estate last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Vancouver CMA — Employment expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1,712 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA): 1699 to 1712 (+0.72%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: Services Imports — Total expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 21,246 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Services Imports — Total last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 8,371,326 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) last observed 2026-04-30, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 1,270 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS) expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 9.30 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 8.2 to 9.3 (+13.41%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 204.10 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario): 203.6 to 204.1 (+0.25%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Recreation, Education & Reading (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI — Recreation & Education was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 136 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CPI — Recreation & Education: 134.5 to 136 (+1.12%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Trade Balance — Mexico expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada Trade Balance — Mexico was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value -2,266 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Trade Balance — Mexico last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) expected to fall by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 167,554 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 927,146 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Forecast 2026-06: BoC overnight rate ≥ 2.025 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.025 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: BoC overnight rate ≤ 2.475 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≤ 2.475 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: CPI year-over-year ≥ 2.38 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.38 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 3 ≥ 2.38 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Forecast 2026-06: CPI year-over-year ≤ 3.22 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.22 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 3 ≤ 3.22 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Forecast 2026-06: Unemployment rate ≥ 6.21 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.21 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.4 ≥ 6.21 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: Unemployment rate ≤ 7.59 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 7.59 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.4 ≤ 7.59 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≥ 1.008 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or above 1.01 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 5 on 2026-07-31. | Correct | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps): 5 ≥ 1.008 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≤ 1.512 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or below 1.51 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 5 on 2026-07-31. | Incorrect | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps): 5 ≤ 1.512 at deadline 2026-07-31 — forecast threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-06: GDP monthly ≥ 2222744.45 (±5% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,222,744 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2,352,903 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP Monthly (All Industries) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Forecast 2026-06: GDP monthly ≤ 2456717.55 (±5% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or below 2,456,718 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2,352,903 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (GDP Monthly (All Industries) last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-31); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Forecast 2026-06: TSX composite ≥ 31292.1914 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 31,292 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 35,334 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | TSX Composite: bound ≥ 31,290 was already cleared at prediction time (34,730) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Forecast 2026-06: TSX composite ≤ 38246.0118 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or below 38,246 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 35,334 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | TSX Composite: bound ≤ 38,250 was already cleared at prediction time (34,730) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 61dchat - Directional forecast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-31. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FALL; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries next print leaning up to 1,300Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries had to be at or above 1,289 by 2026-09-14. | Actual value 1,286 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries: 1289 to 1286 (-0.23%) — predicted up, bar ≥1289 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,261Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,258 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,226 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1258 to 1226 (-2.57%) — predicted up, bar ≥1258 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,196Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,194 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 1,179 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Healthcare Avg Weekly Earnings: 1194 to 1179 (-1.25%) — predicted up, bar ≥1194 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) next print leaning down to 8,700,407Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) had to be at or below 8,754,790 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 8,829,187 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA): 8,755,000 to 8,829,000 (+0.85%) — predicted down, bar ≤8,755,000 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,962Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,958 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 1,906 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings: 1958 to 1906 (-2.61%) — predicted up, bar ≥1958 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Active Businesses (Canada) next print leaning up to 936,355Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Active Businesses (Canada) had to be at or above 935,072 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 937,445 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Active Businesses (Canada): 935,100 to 937,400 (+0.25%) — predicted up, bar ≥935,100 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Average Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,384Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Average Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,382 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 1,377 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Average Weekly Earnings: 1382 to 1377 (-0.31%) — predicted up, bar ≥1382 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Total Job Vacancies (Canada) next print leaning up to 542,491Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Total Job Vacancies (Canada) had to be at or above 540,270 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 544,790 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Total Job Vacancies (Canada): 540,300 to 544,800 (+0.84%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Federal Incorporation Velocity next print leaning down to -0.3181Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | Federal Incorporation Velocity had to be at or below -0.278 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value -0.063 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Federal Incorporation Velocity: -0.278 to -0.063 (-77.34%) — predicted down, bar ≤-0.278 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Closures (Canada) next print leaning up to 49,012Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | Business Closures (Canada) had to be at or above 47,672 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 45,536 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Business Closures (Canada): 47,670 to 45,540 (-4.48%) — predicted up, bar ≥47,670 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Openings (Canada) next print leaning up to 47,361Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | Business Openings (Canada) had to be at or above 47,277 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 47,565 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Business Openings (Canada): 47,280 to 47,560 (+0.61%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries next print leaning up to 602,095Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries had to be at or above 593,940 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 598,673 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries: 593,900 to 598,700 (+0.80%) — predicted up, bar ≥593,900 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — All Services-Producing Industries next print leaning up to 1,773,857Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries had to be at or above 1,766,207 by 2026-08-22. | Actual value 1,770,490 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries: 1,766,000 to 1,770,000 (+0.24%) — predicted up, bar ≥1,766,000 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-29): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.19Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.19 by 2026-08-21. | Actual value 3.19 on 2026-07-30. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.27 to 3.17 (-3.06%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.19 MISSED Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-28): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 98.10Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 30, 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 97.18 by 2026-08-20. | Actual value 94.25 on 2026-07-29. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 97.18 to 94.25 (-3.02%) — predicted up, bar ≥97.18 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,400Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,394 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,379 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1394 to 1379 (-1.11%) — predicted up, bar ≥1394 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta) next print leaning up to 1,397Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta) had to be at or above 1,394 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,379 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta): 1394 to 1379 (-1.11%) — predicted up, bar ≥1394 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Construction Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,660Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,655 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,592 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings: 1655 to 1592 (-3.81%) — predicted up, bar ≥1655 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,232Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,230 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,221 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1230 to 1221 (-0.67%) — predicted up, bar ≥1230 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,297Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,294 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,270 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1294 to 1270 (-1.87%) — predicted up, bar ≥1294 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,164Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,162 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,212 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1162 to 1212 (+4.34%) — predicted up, bar ≥1162 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,296Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,294 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,299 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1294 to 1299 (+0.41%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): US PCE Price Index (YoY) next print leaning up to 4.14Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | US PCE Price Index (YoY) had to be at or above 4.07 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 3.67 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | US PCE Price Index (YoY): 4.07 to 3.67 (-9.83%) — predicted up, bar ≥4.07 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,390Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,388 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,389 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings: 1388 to 1389 (+0.11%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) next print leaning up to 1,348Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) had to be at or above 1,346 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada): 1346 to 1338 (-0.60%) — predicted up, bar ≥1346 MISSED — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Services-Producing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 1,770,490 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries: 1,762,000 to 1,770,000 (+0.47%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Goods-Producing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 598,673 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries: 585,800 to 598,700 (+2.19%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4792) within 7dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 30, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.48 by 2026-07-30. | Actual value 1.40 on 2026-07-30. | Incorrect | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.408 to 1.401 (-0.49%) — predicted up, bar ≥1.479 MISSED — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 14dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 30, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-07-30. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-30. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (BoC Policy Rate last observed 2026-07-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-30); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Industrial Aggregate Wages (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified): 1346 to 1338 (-0.60%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Industrial Aggregate Wages (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Industrial Aggregate (excl. unclassified): 1333 to 1338 (+0.34%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-27): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.18Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.19 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 3.16 on 2026-07-28. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.19 to 3.16 (-0.94%) — predicted down, bar ≤3.19 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-27): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 96.51Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 5 times, same grade | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 96.22 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 97.18 on 2026-07-28. | Correct | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 96.22 to 97.18 (+1.00%) — predicted up, bar ≥96.22 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) next print leaning up to 98.56Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Nov 20, 2026 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) had to be at or above 98.14 by 2026-11-20. | Actual value 102.20 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite): 98.14 to 102.2 (+4.14%) — predicted up, bar ≥98.14 cleared — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BCPI High-Rise Toronto next print leaning up to 105.63Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto had to be at or above 104.90 by 2026-11-07. | Actual value 104.70 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | BCPI High-Rise Toronto: 104.9 to 104.7 (-0.19%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to fall by 2026-07-26Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 26, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-26. | Actual value 4.17 on 2026-07-26. | Incorrect | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY: 3.424 to 4.171 (+21.82%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-25): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 24.98Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 5 times, same grade | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 25.24 by 2026-09-13. | Actual value 25.24 on 2026-07-26. | Inconclusive | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 25.24 to 25.24 (-0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BCPI Low-Rise Toronto next print leaning up to 110.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 25, 2026 | Dec 8, 2026 | BCPI Low-Rise Toronto had to be at or above 109 by 2026-12-08. | Actual value 108.40 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | BCPI Low-Rise Toronto: 109 to 108.4 (-0.55%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) signals elevated risk of a sharp monthly drop in housing starts by 2026-10-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Jul 25, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be down from 205.05 by 2026-10-01. | Outcome recorded after the deadline. | Incorrect | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-24): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 26.55Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 26.81 by 2026-09-12. | Actual value 25.24 on 2026-07-25. | Correct | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 26.81 to 25.24 (-5.85%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): IPPI — Energy & Petroleum next print leaning up to 185.33Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | IPPI — Energy & Petroleum had to be at or above 183.40 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 169.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | IPPI — Energy & Petroleum: 183.4 to 169.8 (-7.42%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): IPPI Total (Index) next print leaning up to 146.92Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | IPPI Total (Index) had to be at or above 146.60 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 145.60 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | IPPI Total (Index): 146.6 to 145.6 (-0.68%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): IPPI — Machinery & Equipment next print leaning up to 127.27Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment had to be at or above 127.10 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 127.80 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment: 127.1 to 127.8 (+0.55%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): IPPI All Commodities YoY next print leaning up to 13.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | IPPI All Commodities YoY had to be at or above 13.56 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 12.43 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | IPPI All Commodities YoY: 13.56 to 12.43 (-8.33%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-07-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 24, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-24. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-24. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-24); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Median expected to fall by 2026-07-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 24, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-24. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-07-24. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (BoC CPI-Median last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-24); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to fall by 2026-07-24Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 24, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-24. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-24. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-24); the call is untested without a new observation |
| CPI Inflation signals elevated risk of a sharp monthly drop in housing starts by 2026-10-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be down from 205.05 by 2026-10-01. | Outcome recorded after the deadline. | Incorrect | Recorded without an additional note. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-23): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 24.16Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 6 times, same grade | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 24.41 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 26.81 on 2026-07-24. | Incorrect | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 24.41 to 26.81 (+9.83%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 9,705,072Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 9,588,209 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 9,725,432 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,588,000 to 9,725,000 (+1.43%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY next print leaning down to 3.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or below 3.72 by 2026-08-19. | Actual value 3.42 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY: 3.723 to 3.424 (-8.03%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 9,819,629Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 9,787,281 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 9,920,198 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,787,000 to 9,920,000 (+1.36%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) next print leaning up to 73,261,576Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) had to be at or above 73,030,066 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 73,707,680 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA): 73,030,000 to 73,710,000 (+0.93%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 7dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2 by 2026-07-23. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-23. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-23); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-22): Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate next print leaning down to 239,643Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate had to be at or below 239,932 by 2026-09-11. | Actual value 239,932 on 2026-07-23. | Inconclusive | Max Mortgage at Qualifying Rate: 239,900 to 239,900 (+0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GoC Bond Issuance Volume next print leaning up to 30,983Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GoC Bond Issuance Volume had to be at or above 30,823 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 23,500 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | GoC Bond Issuance Volume: 30,820 to 23,500 (-23.76%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-21): Canadian Rate Squeeze Index next print leaning down to -0.9592Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index had to be at or below -0.95 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value -0.55 on 2026-07-22. | Incorrect | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index: -0.95 to -0.55 (-42.11%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-17): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 97.07Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 97.29 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 95.46 on 2026-07-20. | Correct | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 97.29 to 95.46 (-1.88%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) next print leaning up to 1,779,530Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) had to be at or above 1,772,675 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,786,910 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits): 1,773,000 to 1,787,000 (+0.80%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) next print leaning up to 2,248Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 2,242 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 2,558,562 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada): 2242 to 2,559,000 (+114036.43%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — CPI-Median, YoY next print leaning down to 2.10Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY had to be at or below 2.10 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY: 2.1 to 1.9 (-9.52%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Services, YoY next print leaning up to 1.97Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | CPI — Services, YoY had to be at or above 1.97 by 2026-09-09. | Actual value 2.24 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — Services, YoY: 1.968 to 2.24 (+13.83%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): BoC CPI-Trim next print leaning up to 2.08Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 2 by 2026-09-08. | Actual value 1.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Trim: 2 to 1.8 (-10.00%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Energy Products, YoY next print leaning up to 22.20Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | CPI — Energy Products, YoY had to be at or above 22.18 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 14.32 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy Products, YoY: 22.18 to 14.32 (-35.44%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Goods, YoY next print leaning up to 4.87Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Goods, YoY had to be at or above 4.81 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 3.51 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Goods, YoY: 4.814 to 3.505 (-27.19%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY next print leaning up to 0.3597Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY had to be at or above 0.3592 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 0.2048 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY: 0.3592 to 0.2048 (-42.97%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Semi-Durable Goods, YoY next print leaning up to 0.8818Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Semi-Durable Goods, YoY had to be at or above 0.8629 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 0.2879 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Semi-Durable Goods, YoY: 0.8629 to 0.2879 (-66.63%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Transportation, YoY next print leaning down to 8.93Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Transportation, YoY had to be at or below 8.97 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 6.72 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — Transportation, YoY: 8.969 to 6.721 (-25.07%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY next print leaning down to 1.74Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY had to be at or below 1.75 by 2026-09-01. | Actual value 1.75 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY: 1.748 to 1.748 (-0.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY next print leaning down to 2.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY had to be at or below 2.04 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2.49 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Dairy Products & Eggs, YoY: 2.042 to 2.486 (+21.74%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Durable Goods, YoY next print leaning up to 1.90Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Durable Goods, YoY had to be at or above 1.89 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1.51 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Durable Goods, YoY: 1.894 to 1.511 (-20.23%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY next print leaning up to 3.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY had to be at or above 3.14 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 2.73 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food Purchased from Restaurants, YoY: 3.141 to 2.734 (-12.96%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Food, YoY next print leaning up to 3.82Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Food, YoY had to be at or above 3.79 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 3.48 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food, YoY: 3.787 to 3.476 (-8.20%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Shelter, YoY next print leaning down to 1.67Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Shelter, YoY had to be at or below 1.71 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 1.55 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — Shelter, YoY: 1.712 to 1.548 (-9.57%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY next print leaning up to 6.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY had to be at or above 6.16 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 5.98 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Vehicle Insurance Premiums, YoY: 6.159 to 5.981 (-2.89%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): BoC CPI-Common next print leaning up to 2.76Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common had to be at or above 2.70 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 2.60 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Common: 2.7 to 2.6 (-3.70%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): BoC CPI-Median next print leaning up to 2.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median had to be at or above 2.10 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Median: 2.1 to 1.9 (-9.52%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY next print leaning down to 1.61Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY had to be at or below 1.61 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY: 1.61 to 1.802 (+11.93%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY next print leaning up to 4.9213Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY had to be at or above 4.80 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY: 4.8 to 1.804 (-62.42%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Gasoline (Canada) next print leaning up to 280.04Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) had to be at or above 273.70 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 245.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Gasoline (Canada): 273.7 to 245.8 (-10.19%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) next print leaning up to 158.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) had to be at or above 158.50 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 158.60 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario): 158.5 to 158.6 (+0.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY next print leaning up to -0.2164Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY had to be at or above -0.2198 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value -0.3291 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY: -0.2198 to -0.3291 (+49.75%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) next print leaning up to 203.41Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) had to be at or above 203 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 203.60 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario): 203 to 203.6 (+0.30%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY next print leaning down to 1.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY had to be at or below 1.30 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.70 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY: 1.297 to 1.698 (+30.90%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — All-Items (Alberta) next print leaning up to 179.49Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) had to be at or above 178.30 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 178.20 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — All-Items (Alberta): 178.3 to 178.2 (-0.06%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — All-Items (BC) next print leaning up to 164.37Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (BC) had to be at or above 163.60 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 163.30 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — All-Items (BC): 163.6 to 163.3 (-0.18%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — All-Items (Ontario) next print leaning up to 171.14Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) had to be at or above 170.20 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 169.30 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Ontario): 170.2 to 169.3 (-0.53%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — All-Items (Quebec) next print leaning up to 167.37Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) had to be at or above 166.70 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 166.20 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — All-Items (Quebec): 166.7 to 166.2 (-0.30%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Energy (Canada) next print leaning up to 235.95Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Energy (Canada) had to be at or above 231.40 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 215.60 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (Canada): 231.4 to 215.6 (-6.83%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI Food (Ontario) next print leaning up to 203.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) had to be at or above 202.80 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 202.40 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI Food (Ontario): 202.8 to 202.4 (-0.20%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Food from Stores next print leaning up to 203.52Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Food from Stores had to be at or above 200.90 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 200.30 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Food from Stores: 200.9 to 200.3 (-0.30%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY next print leaning up to 7.42Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY had to be at or above 7.24 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 7.40 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY: 7.239 to 7.395 (+2.16%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY next print leaning down to 0.2602Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY had to be at or below 0.2774 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 0 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY: 0.2774 to 0 (-100.00%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Natural Gas, YoY next print leaning up to -4.12Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -4.23 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value -0.7663 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY: -4.233 to -0.7663 (-81.90%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY next print leaning up to 3.43Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY had to be at or above 3.41 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 3.40 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY: 3.414 to 3.403 (-0.31%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY next print leaning down to 1.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY had to be at or below 1.30 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.70 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY: 1.297 to 1.698 (+30.90%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): CPI Inflation next print leaning up to 3.73Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.20 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 3.2 to 2.8 (-12.50%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Private Transportation CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Private Transportation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 181.50 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Private Transportation: 185.9 to 181.5 (-2.37%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Energy CPI (Alberta) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Energy (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 235 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (Alberta): 248.5 to 235 (-5.43%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Energy CPI (British Columbia) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Energy (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 226.40 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Energy (BC): 241.7 to 226.4 (-6.33%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Shelter CPI (British Columbia) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 166.70 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI — Shelter (BC): 166.7 to 166.7 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Shelter CPI (Ontario) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 189.60 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | CPI — Shelter (Ontario): 189.4 to 189.6 (+0.11%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Food CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 202.40 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | CPI Food (Ontario): 202.8 to 202.4 (-0.20%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Gasoline CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 245.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI — Gasoline (Canada): 273.7 to 245.8 (-10.19%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI (inflation) nowcast (2026-05-01): next CPI print leaning mixed ↔Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at 3.20 by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 3.2 to 2.8 (-12.50%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 1.36) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Jul 20, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.36 by 2026-07-20. | Actual value 1.41 on 2026-07-20. | Incorrect | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.417 to 1.405 (-0.83%) — predicted down — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BLP — Hiring Intentions next print leaning up to 38.18Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | BLP — Hiring Intentions had to be at or above 38 by 2026-11-28. | Actual value 27 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | BLP — Hiring Intentions: 38 to 27 (-28.95%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BLP — Price Expectations next print leaning up to -7.84Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | BLP — Price Expectations had to be at or above -8 by 2026-11-28. | Actual value 25 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | BLP — Price Expectations: -8 to 25 (-412.50%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): CSCE — Expected Wage Growth next print leaning up to 2.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Wage Growth had to be at or above 2.68 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 2.76 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | CSCE — Expected Wage Growth: 2.68 to 2.76 (+2.99%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability next print leaning down to 18.93Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability had to be at or below 19.33 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 15.08 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability: 19.33 to 15.08 (-21.99%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): CSCE — Expected Spending Growth next print leaning up to 3.52Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Spending Growth had to be at or above 3.50 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 3.75 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | CSCE — Expected Spending Growth: 3.5 to 3.75 (+7.14%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BLP — Investment Intentions next print leaning up to 29.56Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | BLP — Investment Intentions had to be at or above 29 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 30 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | BLP — Investment Intentions: 29 to 30 (+3.45%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BLP — Wage Expectations next print leaning up to 3.74Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | BLP — Wage Expectations had to be at or above 3.50 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | BLP — Wage Expectations: 3.5 to 3.2 (-8.57%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BLP — Sales Expectations next print leaning up to 38.10Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 1, 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 | BLP — Sales Expectations had to be at or above 25 by 2026-10-17. | Actual value 8 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | BLP — Sales Expectations: 25 to 8 (-68.00%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Household Formation Pressure (Canada) next print leaning down to -4.18Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) had to be at or below -4.02 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value -2.79 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Household Formation Pressure (Canada): -4.017 to -2.793 (-30.49%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads next print leaning down to 38.12Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads had to be at or below 38.41 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 38.27 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads: 38.41 to 38.27 (-0.37%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) next print leaning up to 247.33Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 19, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 247.02 by 2026-08-09. | Actual value 227.83 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): 247 to 227.8 (-7.77%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads next print leaning down to -64.08Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or below -63.88 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value -63.80 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: -63.88 to -63.8 (-0.14%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-09): Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) next print leaning down to 0.741Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 11, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) had to be at or below 0.75 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value -63.80 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: 0.75 to -63.8 (-8606.28%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to fall by 2026-07-18Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 18, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-18. | Actual value 20,265 on 2026-07-18. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-18); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to rise by 2026-07-18Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 18, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-18. | Actual value 20,265 on 2026-07-18. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-18); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning down to 4,906Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or below 4,921 by 2026-09-02. | Actual value 4,372 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC): 4921 to 4372 (-11.16%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA) next print leaning down to 1,627Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 7, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA) had to be at or below 1,649 by 2026-08-27. | Actual value 2,008 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Vancouver CMA): 1649 to 2008 (+21.77%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): US Industrial Production Index next print leaning up to 102.79Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | US Industrial Production Index had to be at or above 102.65 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 102.64 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | US Industrial Production Index: 102.6 to 102.6 (-0.01%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning up to 5,988Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or above 5,975 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 4,763 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Quebec — Housing Starts (CMHC): 5975 to 4763 (-20.28%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning up to 2,997Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or above 2,970 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 2,940 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | British Columbia — Housing Starts (CMHC): 2970 to 2940 (-1.01%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) next print leaning up to 3,191Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 3,167 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 3,005 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA): 3167 to 3005 (-5.12%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-16): Data Reliability Index next print leaning up to 99.62Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 17, 2026 | Aug 13, 2026 | Data Reliability Index had to be at or above 92 by 2026-08-13. | Actual value 92 on 2026-07-17. | Inconclusive | Data Reliability Index: 92 to 78.5 (-14.67%) — predicted up Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-15): Data Reliability Index next print leaning down to 74.77Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 16, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | Data Reliability Index had to be at or below 83 by 2026-08-12. | Actual value 92 on 2026-07-16. | Incorrect | Data Reliability Index: 83 to 92 (+10.84%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-14): Data Reliability Index next print leaning down to 91.88Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 15, 2026 | Aug 11, 2026 | Data Reliability Index had to be at or below 92 by 2026-08-11. | Actual value 83 on 2026-07-15. | Correct | Data Reliability Index: 92 to 83 (-9.78%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-13): Data Reliability Index next print leaning down to 91.88Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 14, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Data Reliability Index had to be at or below 92 by 2026-08-10. | Actual value 92 on 2026-07-14. | Inconclusive | Data Reliability Index: 92 to 78.5 (-14.67%) — predicted down Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) next print leaning down to 22,516Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 18, 2026 | Aug 8, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or below 22,633 by 2026-08-08. | Actual value 20,265 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National): 22,630 to 20,260 (-10.46%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at 2.0) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2 by 2026-07-17. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-17. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FALL; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at 3.38) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at 3.38 by 2026-07-17. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-17. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted up, stated 3.38 with no comparison operator — magnitude claim not enforceable — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to hold (at or above 1.3283) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.33 by 2026-07-17. | Actual value 1.40 on 2026-07-17. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: bound ≥ 1.328 was already cleared at prediction time (1.403) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) next print leaning down to -0.5631Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) had to be at or below -0.2742 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value -0.432 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US): -0.2742 to -0.432 (+57.55%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.38) within 30dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 16, 2026 | Jul 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.38 by 2026-07-16. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-16. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted up, bar ≥3.38 MISSED — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to hold (at 1.3982) within 30dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 16, 2026 | Jul 16, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at 1.40 by 2026-07-16. | Actual value 1.40 on 2026-07-16. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.4 to 1.405 (+0.38%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): US Producer Price Index (YoY) next print leaning up to 13.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | US Producer Price Index (YoY) had to be at or above 13.08 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 10.11 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | US Producer Price Index (YoY): 13.08 to 10.11 (-22.71%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) next print leaning down to 138,111,238Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) had to be at or below 138,829,998 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 140,791,742 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA): 138,800,000 to 140,800,000 (+1.41%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio next print leaning down to 1.57Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio had to be at or below 1.62 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.61 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: 1.622 to 1.612 (-0.62%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-14): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning up to 9,921Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jul 15, 2026 | Aug 11, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or above 9,776 by 2026-08-11. | Actual value 9,534 on 2026-07-15. | Incorrect | AESO — Total Generation: 9804 to 9534 (-2.75%) — predicted up — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Manufacturing Sales / Shipments (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Sales (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 78,093,359 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Manufacturing Sales (Canada): 77,050,000 to 78,090,000 (+1.35%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to hold (at 2.9) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at 2.90 by 2026-07-15. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-15. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3 (+7.14%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): US CPI Year-over-Year next print leaning up to 4.32Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | US CPI Year-over-Year had to be at or above 4.27 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 3.73 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | US CPI Year-over-Year: 4.27 to 3.73 (-12.65%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Household Credit Growth next print leaning up to 1.92Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Household Credit Growth had to be at or above 1.90 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1.81 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Household Credit Growth: 1.9 to 1.81 (-4.74%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-12): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning up to 9,407Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or above 9,304 by 2026-08-09. | Actual value 9,782 on 2026-07-13. | Correct | AESO — Total Generation: 9304 to 9782 (+5.14%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans next print leaning up to 927,550Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 19, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans had to be at or above 922,002 by 2026-08-09. | Actual value 927,146 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans: 922,000 to 927,100 (+0.56%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 2,677 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Public Administration (NAICS 91) expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Employment — Public Administration (NAICS 91) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 1,255 on 2026-07-13. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Employment Naics 91 Public Administration Monthly Sa Canada' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment expected to fall by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Construction Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 1,630 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Construction Employment (Canada) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Healthcare Employment expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Healthcare Employment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 3,002 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Healthcare Employment last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 6.50 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada National Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 6.50 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada National Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Vancouver CMA expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 1,682 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Montreal CMA expected to fall by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Montréal CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 2,380 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Montréal CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Winnipeg CMA expected to fall by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 511.70 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Winnipeg CMA expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 511.70 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 21,140 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Calgary CMA expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Calgary CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 1,053 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Calgary CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Edmonton CMA expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Edmonton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 884 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Edmonton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Hamilton CMA expected to rise by 2026-07-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-13. | Actual value 447 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Hamilton CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-13); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.7145) within 180dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 19, 2026 | Dec 16, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.7145 by 2026-12-16. | Actual value 1.41 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.417 to 1.415 (-0.18%) — predicted down Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.72) within 90dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 20, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.72 by 2026-09-18. | Actual value 1.41 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.417 to 1.415 (-0.18%) — predicted down Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-12): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 19.72Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 8 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 19.97 by 2026-08-31. | Actual value 19.97 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 19.97 to 22.88 (+14.54%) — predicted down Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-10): WTI Crude Oil next print leaning up to 71.34Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 71.27 by 2026-08-30. | Actual value 72.83 on 2026-07-13. | Correct | WTI Crude Oil: 71.27 to 72.83 (+2.19%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-11): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning down to 9,296Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 8, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or below 9,657 by 2026-08-08. | Actual value 9,304 on 2026-07-12. | Correct | AESO — Total Generation: 9657 to 9304 (-3.66%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.71) within 45dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.71 by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 0.7025 on 2026-07-13. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.403 to 1.415 (+0.79%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.7077) within 30dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 19, 2026 | Jul 19, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.7077 by 2026-07-19. | Actual value 1.41 on 2026-07-13. | Inconclusive | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.417 to 1.415 (-0.18%) — predicted down Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Average Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,387Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Average Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,383 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,368 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | Average Weekly Earnings: 1383 to 1368 (-1.09%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Building Permit Value next print leaning down to 1,996,789Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | Building Permit Value had to be at or below 2,015,220 by 2026-08-23. | Actual value 2,055,876 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Building Permit Value: 2,015,000 to 2,056,000 (+2.02%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment Change next print leaning up to 42.37Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Employment Change had to be at or above 41.80 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value -16.70 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Employment Change: 41.8 to -16.7 (-139.95%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CPI Inflation ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 11, 2026 | Jul 11, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-07-11. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-11. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 3 ≥ 2.24 at deadline 2026-07-11 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CPI Inflation ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 11, 2026 | Jul 11, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-07-11. | Actual value 3 on 2026-07-11. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 3 ≤ 3.36 at deadline 2026-07-11 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Agriculture Input Cost Pressure next print leaning up to 174.34Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | Agriculture Input Cost Pressure had to be at or above 173.50 by 2026-11-08. | Actual value 180.30 on 2026-01-01. | Correct | Agriculture Input Cost Pressure: 173.5 to 180.3 (+3.92%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment: Toronto CMA next print leaning up to 3,757Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Employment: Toronto CMA had to be at or above 3,751 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 3,760 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Employment: Toronto CMA: 3751 to 3760 (+0.25%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate next print leaning up to 69.20Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 69.10 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 69.50 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate: 69.1 to 69.5 (+0.58%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Canadian Financial Stress Index next print leaning up to 0.0204Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Canadian Financial Stress Index had to be at or above 0.02 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 0.04 on 2026-03-01. | Correct | Canadian Financial Stress Index: 0.02 to 0.04 (+100.00%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Building Permit Units (Toronto) next print leaning up to 24,016Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Building Permit Units (Toronto) had to be at or above 23,964 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 24,035 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Building Permit Units (Toronto): 23,960 to 24,040 (+0.30%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Construction Labour Availability next print leaning up to 579.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Construction Labour Availability had to be at or above 578.40 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 560 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Construction Labour Availability: 578.4 to 560 (-3.18%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): British Columbia Total Employment next print leaning up to 2,932Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | British Columbia Total Employment had to be at or above 2,929 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 2,937 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | British Columbia Total Employment: 2929 to 2937 (+0.27%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index next print leaning up to 30.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index had to be at or above 29.47 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 31 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index: 29.47 to 31 (+5.18%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change next print leaning up to 4.56Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change had to be at or above 4.54 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 3.04 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change: 4.539 to 3.044 (-32.95%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Forestry Output next print leaning down to 2,923Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Forestry Output had to be at or below 2,927 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2,881 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Forestry Output: 2927 to 2881 (-1.57%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment next print leaning down to 24.21Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment had to be at or below 24.30 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 28.19 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment: 24.3 to 28.19 (+16.01%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Total Electricity Generation (Canada) next print leaning up to 62.11Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) had to be at or above 58.22 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 50.17 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Total Electricity Generation (Canada): 58.22 to 50.17 (-13.83%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) next print leaning up to 0.6781Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or above 0.6625 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 0.6716 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada): 0.6625 to 0.6716 (+1.37%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value next print leaning down to 1,609,997Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 13, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value had to be at or below 1,628,517 by 2026-08-03. | Actual value 1,552,862 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value: 1,629,000 to 1,553,000 (-4.65%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning down to 6.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 7, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or below 6.60 by 2026-07-28. | Actual value 7 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 6.6 to 7 (+6.06%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-09): WTI Crude Oil next print leaning up to 71.56Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 71.48 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 71.91 on 2026-07-10. | Inconclusive | WTI Crude Oil: 71.91 to 72.83 (+1.28%) — predicted up Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) next print leaning up to 689.69Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) had to be at or above 689 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 710.90 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Employment — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41): 689 to 710.9 (+3.18%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-09): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 18.00Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 5 times, same grade | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 18.28 by 2026-08-29. | Actual value 20.08 on 2026-07-10. | Incorrect | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 18.28 to 20.08 (+9.84%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) next print leaning up to 343.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) had to be at or above 343 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 344 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21): 343 to 344 (+0.29%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61) next print leaning up to 1,586Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61) had to be at or above 1,584 by 2026-08-26. | Actual value 1,577 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Employment — Educational Services (NAICS 61): 1584 to 1577 (-0.42%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) next print leaning up to 1,472Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) had to be at or above 1,470 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,474 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias): 1470 to 1474 (+0.27%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Construction (NAICS 23) next print leaning up to 1,661Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Employment — Construction (NAICS 23) had to be at or above 1,643 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 1,630 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Employment — Construction (NAICS 23): 1643 to 1630 (-0.79%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Full-Time next print leaning up to 17,374Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Employment — Full-Time had to be at or above 17,322 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 17,323 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Employment — Full-Time: 17,320 to 17,360 (+0.22%) — predicted up, bar ≥17,320 cleared Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) next print leaning up to 3,009Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) had to be at or above 3,002 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 3,002 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62): 3002 to 3010 (+0.28%) — predicted up, bar ≥3002 cleared Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Energy Exports next print leaning up to 20,403Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Energy Exports had to be at or above 19,885 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 20,570 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Energy Exports: 19,880 to 20,570 (+3.45%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) next print leaning down to 1,829Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) had to be at or below 1,831 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,814 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33): 1831 to 1814 (-0.92%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Manufacturing Exports next print leaning up to 29,585Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Manufacturing Exports had to be at or above 29,427 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 29,678 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Manufacturing Exports: 29,430 to 29,680 (+0.85%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Terms of Trade Index next print leaning up to 114.61Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Terms of Trade Index had to be at or above 112.31 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 114.91 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Terms of Trade Index: 112.3 to 114.9 (+2.32%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Part-Time next print leaning up to 3,806Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Employment — Part-Time had to be at or above 3,799 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 3,817 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Employment — Part-Time: 3817 to 3853 (+0.96%) — predicted up, bar ≥3799 cleared Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Retail Employment next print leaning up to 2,242Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Retail Employment had to be at or above 2,238 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2,233 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Retail Employment: 2238 to 2233 (-0.25%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Construction Employment (Canada) next print leaning up to 1,645Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Construction Employment (Canada) had to be at or above 1,643 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,630 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Construction Employment (Canada): 1643 to 1630 (-0.79%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Employment — Transportation & Warehousing (NAICS 48-49) next print leaning up to 1,111Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Employment — Transportation & Warehousing (NAICS 48-49) had to be at or above 1,108 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,115 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Employment — Transportation & Warehousing (NAICS 48-49): 1108 to 1115 (+0.66%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-08): gold next print leaning up to 4,075Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 6, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,071 by 2026-08-06. | Actual value 4,131 on 2026-07-09. | Correct | gold: 4071 to 4131 (+1.47%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Youth Unemployment Rate (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Unemployment Rate — Youth 15-24 was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 12.70 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Unemployment Rate — Youth 15-24: 13.4 to 12.7 (-5.22%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Jobs (unemployment rate) nowcast (2026-05-01): next jobs report (LFS) leaning down ↓Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 20, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 6.60 by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 6.50 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.6 to 6.5 (-1.52%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada National Unemployment Rate next print leaning up to 6.61Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.60 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 6.50 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.6 to 6.5 (-1.52%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) next print leaning down to 21,098Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 27, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) had to be at or below 21,122 by 2026-07-27. | Actual value 21,140 on 2026-06-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA): 21,140 to 21,210 (+0.36%) — predicted down, bar ≤21,120 MISSED Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: distress pillar lower-band — Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) ≥ 0.518 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) had to be at or above 0.518 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value -63.80 on 2026-07-09. | Incorrect | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: -63.8 ≥ 0.518 at deadline 2026-07-09 — belief threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: distress pillar upper-band — Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) ≤ 0.962 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) had to be at or below 0.962 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value -63.90 on 2026-07-09. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads last observed 2026-06-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-09); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Belief: policy pillar lower-band — Monetary Policy Stance (composite) ≥ 1.575 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or above 1.57 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-09. | Inconclusive | Monetary Policy Stance (composite): bound ≥ 1.575 was already cleared at prediction time (2.25) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Belief: policy pillar upper-band — Monetary Policy Stance (composite) ≤ 2.925 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or below 2.92 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-09. | Inconclusive | Monetary Policy Stance (composite): bound ≤ 2.925 was already cleared at prediction time (2.25) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Policy Rate ≥ 2.025 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-09. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.025 at deadline 2026-07-09 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Policy Rate ≤ 2.475 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 9, 2026 | Jul 9, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-07-09. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-09. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≤ 2.475 at deadline 2026-07-09 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-05: BoC overnight rate ≥ 2.025 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | May 9, 2026 | Jul 8, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-07-08. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-08. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.025 at deadline 2026-07-08 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-05: BoC overnight rate ≤ 2.475 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | May 9, 2026 | Jul 8, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-07-08. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-08. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≤ 2.475 at deadline 2026-07-08 — forecast threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Forecast 2026-05: CPI year-over-year ≤ 2.76 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | May 9, 2026 | Jul 8, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.76 by 2026-07-08. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-08. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 ≤ 2.76 at deadline 2026-07-08 — forecast threshold test — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Merchandise Imports — Total next print leaning down to 72,273Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Merchandise Imports — Total had to be at or below 72,440 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 72,856 on 2026-05-01. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Merchandise Imports — Total' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA) next print leaning down to 72,265Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA) had to be at or below 72,440 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 72,856 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA): 72,440 to 72,860 (+0.57%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada) next print leaning down to 2,717Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada) had to be at or below 2,721 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 4,243 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Merchandise Trade Balance (Canada): 2721 to 4243 (+55.96%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Imports — from United States next print leaning down to 42,331Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Imports — from United States had to be at or below 42,496 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 42,097 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Imports — from United States: 42,500 to 42,100 (-0.94%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Exports — to United States next print leaning down to 51,833Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Exports — to United States had to be at or below 51,975 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 53,724 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Exports — to United States: 51,970 to 53,720 (+3.36%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total next print leaning up to 17,778,761Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total had to be at or above 17,752,805 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 18,174,226 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total: 17,750,000 to 18,170,000 (+2.37%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Merchandise Exports — Total next print leaning up to 75,305Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total had to be at or above 75,160 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 77,099 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Merchandise Exports — Total: 75,160 to 77,100 (+2.58%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Services Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 21,246 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Services Imports — Total: 20,500 to 21,250 (+3.65%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 77,099 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Merchandise Exports — Total: 75,160 to 77,100 (+2.58%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 53,724 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Exports — United States: 51,970 to 53,720 (+3.36%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Trade Imports from United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 42,097 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Imports — United States: 42,500 to 42,100 (-0.94%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 53,724 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Exports — to United States: 51,970 to 53,720 (+3.36%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Merchandise Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 77,099 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Merchandise Exports — Total: 75,160 to 77,100 (+2.58%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): BOS — Credit Conditions next print leaning up to -0.7499Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | BOS — Credit Conditions had to be at or above -2 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value 1 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | BOS — Credit Conditions: -2 to 1 (-150.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| BoC holds or signals hawkish pause at next decisionAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-07-06. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-06. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.25 at deadline 2026-07-06, but band risk could not be estimated from recent signal movement — unknown-risk band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Construction PPI remains above 350 despite oil reliefAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | PPI: Construction Materials had to be at or above 350 by 2026-07-06. | Actual value 363.25 on 2026-07-06. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (PPI: Construction Materials last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-06); the call is untested without a new observation |
| CPI surprise delta remains positiveAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | CPI Surprise Delta had to be above 0 by 2026-07-06. | Actual value 47.96 on 2026-07-06. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Surprise Delta had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-06, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| USD/CAD breaches 1.38 within 60 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.38 by 2026-07-06. | Actual value 1.42 on 2026-07-06. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.42 ≥ 1.38 at deadline 2026-07-06 — band threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Unemployment rate increases within 60 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 7, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | Toronto CMA Unemployment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-06. | Actual value 6.50 on 2026-07-06. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.6 to 6.5 (-1.52%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Big Six avg — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,605,405Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Big Six avg — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,599,934 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,546,757 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Big Six avg — Total Assets: 1,600,000 to 1,547,000 (-3.32%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BoC CPI-Common next print leaning up to 2.55Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common had to be at or above 2.50 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2.70 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | BoC CPI-Common: 2.5 to 2.7 (+8.00%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BoC CPI-Median next print leaning up to 2.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median had to be at or above 2.10 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2.10 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | BoC CPI-Median: 2.1 to 2.1 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BoC CPI-Trim next print leaning up to 2.08Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 16, 2026 | Aug 6, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 2 by 2026-08-06. | Actual value 2 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | BoC CPI-Trim: 2 to 2 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-04): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning down to 8,740Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or below 9,061 by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 9,800 on 2026-07-05. | Incorrect | AESO — Total Generation: 9005 to 9800 (+8.83%) — predicted down — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-13): Mortgage-Bond Spread next print leaning down to 282.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Mortgage-Bond Spread had to be at or below 286 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 303 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Mortgage-Bond Spread: 286 to 303 (+5.94%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| BoC holds or hikes despite oil collapse — CPI trim stays above 2.0%Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Jul 5, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 2.10 by 2026-07-05. | Actual value 1.80 on 2026-07-05. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Trim: 1.8 ≥ 2.1 at deadline 2026-07-05 — band threshold test — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Insolvency filings breach 3,800 within 60 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Jul 5, 2026 | Consumer Insolvency Filings had to be at or above 3,800 by 2026-07-05. | Actual value 3,612 on 2026-07-05. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Consumer Insolvency Filings last observed 2025-12-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-05); the call is untested without a new observation |
| CAD weakens further — USD/CAD breaches 1.38Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Jul 5, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.38 by 2026-07-05. | Actual value 1.42 on 2026-07-05. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.42 ≥ 1.38 at deadline 2026-07-05 — band threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| GoC 5yr yield rises above 3.45%Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Jul 5, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.45 by 2026-07-05. | Actual value 3.06 on 2026-07-05. | Incorrect | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.06 ≥ 3.45 at deadline 2026-07-05 — band threshold test — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI Common (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2.70 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | BoC CPI-Common: 2.5 to 2.7 (+8.00%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI Median (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2.10 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | BoC CPI-Median: 2.1 to 2.1 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Business Openings — Healthcare next print leaning up to 3.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Business Openings — Healthcare had to be at or above 3.70 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 3.99 on 2026-03-01. | Correct | Business Openings — Healthcare: 3.699 to 3.989 (+7.84%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) next print leaning up to 0.7944Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) had to be at or above 0.7482 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 0.8 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y): 0.7482 to 0.8 (+6.92%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets next print leaning up to 2,659,047Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets had to be at or above 2,645,098 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 2,396,080 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets: 2,645,000 to 2,396,000 (-9.41%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Business Birth Rate (National) next print leaning down to 1.64Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Business Birth Rate (National) had to be at or below 1.64 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1.82 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | Business Birth Rate (National): 1.638 to 1.824 (+11.32%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Business Closures — Finance next print leaning up to 4.96Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Business Closures — Finance had to be at or above 4.95 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 4.74 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | Business Closures — Finance: 4.953 to 4.74 (-4.30%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): National Bank — Total Assets next print leaning up to 643,763Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | National Bank — Total Assets had to be at or above 639,810 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 617,734 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | National Bank — Total Assets: 639,800 to 617,700 (-3.45%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): TD Bank — Total Assets next print leaning up to 2,091,794Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | TD Bank — Total Assets had to be at or above 2,084,500 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 2,085,106 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | TD Bank — Total Assets: 2,084,000 to 2,085,000 (+0.03%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding next print leaning up to 194,819,282Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had to be at or above 194,302,104 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 193,595,728 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding: 194,300,000 to 193,600,000 (-0.36%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 270,292,934Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 269,688,044 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 267,100,638 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Bank of Nova Scotia — Business & Government Lending: 269,700,000 to 267,100,000 (-0.96%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,530,995Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,526,823 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,521,521 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets: 1,527,000 to 1,522,000 (-0.35%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Business Openings — Construction next print leaning down to 5.39Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Business Openings — Construction had to be at or below 5.39 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 5.34 on 2026-03-01. | Inconclusive | Business Openings — Construction: 5.393 to 5.344 (-0.90%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): CIBC — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 233,847,598Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 232,837,930 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 232,528,708 on 2026-04-30. | Inconclusive | CIBC — Business & Government Lending: 232,800,000 to 232,500,000 (-0.13%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Montreal — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,543,811Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 18, 2026 | Aug 8, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,539,876 by 2026-08-08. | Actual value 1,499,543 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets: 1,540,000 to 1,500,000 (-2.62%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending next print leaning up to 270,523,405Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending had to be at or above 269,688,044 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 255,540,854 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending: 269,700,000 to 255,500,000 (-5.25%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 23,872,434Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 23,825,348 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 60,441,498 on 2026-04-30. | Correct | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding: 23,830,000 to 60,440,000 (+153.69%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 60,392,926Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 60,163,798 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 24,046,771 on 2026-04-30. | Incorrect | Bank of Nova Scotia — HELOC Outstanding: 60,160,000 to 24,050,000 (-60.03%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Active Business Count — Total expected to rise by 2026-07-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 3, 2026 | Active Business Count — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-03. | Actual value 1,372,109 on 2026-07-03. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Active Business Count — Total had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-03, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses: Calgary CMA expected to fall by 2026-07-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 3, 2026 | Active Businesses: Calgary CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-03. | Actual value 65,639 on 2026-07-03. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Active Businesses: Calgary CMA had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-03, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA expected to fall by 2026-07-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 3, 2026 | Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-03. | Actual value 121,846 on 2026-07-03. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Active Businesses: Vancouver CMA had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-03, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses: Toronto CMA expected to fall by 2026-07-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 3, 2026 | Active Businesses: Toronto CMA was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-03. | Actual value 265,469 on 2026-07-03. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Active Businesses: Toronto CMA had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-03, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Big 6 Bank Stock Average expected to rise by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 204.55 on 2026-07-02. | Correct | Big 6 Bank Stock Average: 201.5 to 204.5 (+1.52%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 438,961 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 278,193 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 271,718 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 1,578,600 on 2026-07-02. | Correct | Public-Sector Employment (Ontario): 1,600,000 to 1,579,000 (-1.33%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries expected to rise by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 7.62 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Population (Quarterly) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | Canada Population (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 41,417,056 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Canada Population (Quarterly) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-07-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-02. | Actual value 144.20 on 2026-07-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| CPI inflation will move higher next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-03. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (CPI Inflation last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between prediction date and deadline 2026-06-03) This call was retired from grading: it came from a legacy process whose target could never be scored. |
| Employment conditions will deteriorate next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | Toronto CMA Unemployment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 6.90 on 2026-06-03. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Canada National Unemployment Rate last observed 2026-04-01, no new data between prediction date and deadline 2026-06-03) This call was retired from grading: it came from a legacy process whose target could never be scored. |
| Building permits will decline nationally next month after the spikeMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | Building Permit Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 2,481,062 on 2026-06-03. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Building Permit Value last observed 2026-03-01, no new data between prediction date and deadline 2026-06-03) This call was retired from grading: it came from a legacy process whose target could never be scored. |
| Retail sales will decline next month under household financial stressMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | Retail Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 12,513,494 on 2026-06-03. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Retail Sales last observed 2026-02-01, no new data between prediction date and deadline 2026-06-03) This call was retired from grading: it came from a legacy process whose target could never be scored. |
| Retail sales will decline next month under household financial stressMonthly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | Retail sales growth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 12,513,494 on 2026-05-27. | Expired | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Retail Sales last observed 2026-02-01, no new data between prediction date and deadline 2026-05-27) This call was retired from grading: it came from a legacy process whose target could never be scored. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-02): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning up to 9,119Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 3, 2026 | Jul 30, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or above 9,082 by 2026-07-30. | Actual value 9,573 on 2026-07-03. | Correct | AESO — Total Generation: 9082 to 9573 (+5.41%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net next print leaning up to -45.98Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net had to be at or above -48 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 0 on 2026-07-02. | Correct | AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net: -48 to 0 (-100.00%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-30): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning up to 95.50Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or above 94.82 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 94.34 on 2026-07-02. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 94.82 to 94.34 (-0.51%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) next print leaning down to 129.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) had to be at or below 172 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 57 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change): 172 to 57 (-66.86%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): BCPI — Excluding Energy next print leaning up to 592.92Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | BCPI — Excluding Energy had to be at or above 591.10 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 573.22 on 2026-06-01. | Incorrect | BCPI — Excluding Energy: 591.1 to 573.2 (-3.02%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning down to 8,425Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or below 8,616 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 9,082 on 2026-07-02. | Incorrect | AESO — Total Generation: 8616 to 9082 (+5.41%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-29): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 2.98Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 3.01 on 2026-06-30. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.06 to 3.03 (-0.98%) — predicted down Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): BoC Overnight Rate next print leaning up to 2.26Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 26, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-07-26. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) next print leaning up to -1,576Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) had to be at or above -1,598 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value -5,774 on 2026-01-01. | Incorrect | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario): -1598 to -5774 (+261.33%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) next print leaning up to 1,365Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) had to be at or above 1,227 by 2026-11-09. | Actual value 1,581 on 2026-01-01. | Inconclusive | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia): 1227 to 1581 (+28.85%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): US Recession Probability next print leaning down to 0.4376Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | US Recession Probability had to be at or below 0.44 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 0.54 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | US Recession Probability: 0.44 to 0.54 (+22.73%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) next print leaning up to 106.31Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) had to be at or above 106.20 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 105.90 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite): 106.2 to 105.9 (-0.28%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Federal Incorporation Velocity next print leaning up to -0.237Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Federal Incorporation Velocity had to be at or above -0.249 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value -0.278 on 2026-03-01. | Inconclusive | Federal Incorporation Velocity: -0.249 to -0.278 (+11.65%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Building Permit Value next print leaning up to 2,491,069Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Building Permit Value had to be at or above 2,481,062 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 2,015,220 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Building Permit Value: 2,481,000 to 2,015,000 (-18.78%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Retail sales nowcast (2026-03-01): next retail-sales print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 7, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | Retail Sales had to be at or above 27,457,787 by 2026-08-01. | Actual value 27,673,495 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Retail Sales: 27,460,000 to 27,670,000 (+0.79%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Retail Sales next print leaning up to 27,570,250Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 7, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | Retail Sales had to be at or above 27,457,787 by 2026-07-28. | Actual value 27,673,495 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Retail Sales: 27,460,000 to 27,670,000 (+0.79%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Final Domestic Demand (Canada) nowcast: 2026-03-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-01-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Final Domestic Demand was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,558,296 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Final Domestic Demand last observed 2026-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 69.20 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate: 69.5 to 69.2 (-0.43%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — CPI-Median, YoY expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1.90 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI — CPI-Median, YoY had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 707.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Employment — Administrative & Support, Waste (NAICS 56): 697.8 to 707.2 (+1.35%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 59,091 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 4.13 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 9,725,432 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Beveridge Curve Health expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada — Beveridge Curve Health was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 0.4308 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Canada — Beveridge Curve Health had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Excluding Food & Energy expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — Excluding Food & Energy was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 158.20 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI — Excluding Food & Energy had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: NHPI House Only expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | NHPI — House Only was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 121.90 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: NHPI — House Only had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (British Columbia, PT-local govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (British Columbia, PT-local govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 15,703,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (British Columbia, PT-local govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 140,187,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (New Brunswick, PT-local govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (New Brunswick, PT-local govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,833,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (New Brunswick, PT-local govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (Nova Scotia, PT-local govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (Nova Scotia, PT-local govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 3,554,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (Nova Scotia, PT-local govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (Prince Edward Island, PT-local govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (Prince Edward Island, PT-local govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 606,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (Prince Edward Island, PT-local govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Education Spending (Quebec, PT-local govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Education Spending (Quebec, PT-local govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 27,890,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Education Spending (Quebec, PT-local govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Family & Children Benefits Spending (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Family & Children Benefits Spending (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 68,824,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Family & Children Benefits Spending (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Health Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Health Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 269,116,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Health Spending (Canada, consolidated govt) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Hospital Services Spending (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Hospital Services Spending (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 174,437,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Hospital Services Spending (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Public Order & Safety Spending (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Public Order & Safety Spending (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 54,857,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Public Order & Safety Spending (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Primary-Secondary Education Spending (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Primary-Secondary Education Spending (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 85,245,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Primary-Secondary Education Spending (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Old Age Benefits Spending — OAS/GIS (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Old Age Benefits Spending — OAS/GIS (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 85,931,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Old Age Benefits Spending — OAS/GIS (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Outpatient Services Spending (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Outpatient Services Spending (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 43,878,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Outpatient Services Spending (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Social Protection Spending (Alberta) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Social Protection Spending (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 11,658,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Social Protection Spending (Alberta) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Social Protection Spending (British Columbia) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Social Protection Spending (British Columbia) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 16,005,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Social Protection Spending (British Columbia) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Social Protection Spending (Manitoba) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Social Protection Spending (Manitoba) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 4,342,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Social Protection Spending (Manitoba) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Social Protection Spending (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Social Protection Spending (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 40,691,000,000 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Social Protection Spending (Ontario) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 7.40 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 194,298,469 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 149.80 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 367,719 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Household Disposable Income expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Household Disposable Income was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,811,968 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Household Disposable Income had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Trade Balance — China expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Trade Balance — China was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value -1,630 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Canada Trade Balance — China had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 0 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger: 0.1667 to 0 (-100.00%) — predicted down — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Air Transportation expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Air Transport was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 10,973 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: GDP — Air Transport had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 21,215 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA): 21,140 to 21,210 (+0.36%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,226 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: New Brunswick — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Agriculture Input Cost Pressure expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Agriculture Input Cost Pressure was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 180.30 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Agriculture Input Cost Pressure had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Farm Product Price Index expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Farm Product Price Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 195.80 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Farm Product Price Index had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 22,669 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA): 22,610 to 22,670 (+0.27%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: US Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | US Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 4.10 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | US Unemployment Rate: 4.2 to 4.1 (-2.38%) — predicted down — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted): 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,176 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Employment — Accommodation & Food (NAICS 72) last observed 2025-01-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 6.40 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.5 to 6.4 (-1.54%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Calgary CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Calgary CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,067 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Calgary CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA): 1063 to 1067 (+0.39%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Inflation had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Federal Government — Personal Income Tax (Monthly) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Federal Government — Personal Income Tax (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 18,140 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Federal Government — Personal Income Tax (Monthly) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: GDP Monthly (All Industries) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: GDP Monthly (All Industries) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Large Businesses (100+) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Large Businesses (100+) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 27,733 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Large Businesses (100+) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 21.52 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: TFWP Share of Work Permits (Canada, monthly) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Montreal CMA — Employment expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Montréal CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,449 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Montréal CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA): 2417 to 2449 (+1.31%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Lag-harvest: CMHC Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 0.22 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Mortgage Arrears Rate had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Hamilton CMA — Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Hamilton CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 7 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Hamilton CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Montreal CMA — Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Montréal CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 6.90 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Montréal CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: Toronto CMA — Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Toronto CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 7.80 on 2026-07-01. | Inconclusive | still inconclusive — the source data went stale (Toronto CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) last observed 2026-05-01, no new data between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01); the call is untested without a new observation |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Quebec) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 166.20 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI — All-Items (Quebec) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 66,763 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'GDP — All Services-Producing Industries' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 927,146 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 202.40 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Food (Ontario) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 367,807,073 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,173,943 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,338 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: National Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 33,456,378 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: National Bank — HELOC Outstanding had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 503,685,133 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 180,006,106 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Business Closures — Technology expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Business Closures — Technology was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 4.85 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Business Closures — Technology had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,270 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 619.20 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS): 616.7 to 619.2 (+0.41%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS) expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 9.30 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Newfoundland & Labrador — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 8.2 to 9.3 (+13.41%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Imports — United States expected to rise by 2026-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 43,909 on 2026-07-01. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Canada Imports — United States had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-07-01, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| CPI nowcast (2026-04-01): next print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 21, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-07-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 3.2 to 2.8 (-12.50%) — predicted up — missed Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-30): Global Energy Input Cost Pressure next print leaning down to 12.79Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 30, 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure had to be at or below 13.13 by 2026-08-20. | Actual value 12.60 on 2026-07-01. | Correct | Global Energy Input Cost Pressure: 13.13 to 12.6 (-4.08%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) next print leaning down to 378,693Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) had to be at or below 382,967 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 389,856 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities): 383,000 to 389,900 (+1.80%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) next print leaning up to 77,495Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) had to be at or above 77,352 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 80,439 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211): 77,350 to 80,440 (+3.99%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) next print leaning up to 57,859Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) had to be at or above 57,779 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 57,827 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237): 57,780 to 57,830 (+0.08%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) next print leaning down to 180,741Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) had to be at or below 181,009 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 181,726 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52): 181,000 to 181,700 (+0.40%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) next print leaning up to 56,640Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) had to be at or above 56,483 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 56,151 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415): 56,480 to 56,150 (-0.59%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) next print leaning down to 45,068Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) had to be at or below 45,578 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 44,754 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11): 45,580 to 44,750 (-1.81%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Active Businesses (Canada) next print leaning down to 934,792Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Active Businesses (Canada) had to be at or below 935,791 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 935,072 on 2026-03-01. | Correct | Active Businesses (Canada): 935,800 to 935,100 (-0.08%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-26): gold next print leaning up to 4,088Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 28, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | gold had to be at or above 4,079 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 4,022 on 2026-06-29. | Incorrect | gold: 4079 to 4022 (-1.38%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-26): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 93.46Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 28, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 93.72 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 94.12 on 2026-06-29. | Incorrect | S&P/TSX Capped Financials: 93.72 to 94.12 (+0.43%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP Monthly (All Industries) next print leaning up to 2,350,420Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,339,731 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 2,352,903 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,340,000 to 2,353,000 (+0.56%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP: Manufacturing next print leaning down to 198,226Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | GDP: Manufacturing had to be at or below 198,729 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 198,612 on 2026-04-01. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'GDP: Manufacturing' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) next print leaning down to 128,256Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) had to be at or below 128,710 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 128,030 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41): 128,700 to 128,000 (-0.53%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Plastics & Rubber was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 9,289 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Plastics & Rubber: 9110 to 9289 (+1.96%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Crop Production GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 29,371 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111): 30,100 to 29,370 (-2.43%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Real Estate GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate (broker+lessor) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 291,891 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Real Estate (broker+lessor): 291,200 to 291,900 (+0.25%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Transportation Equipment GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Transport Equipment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 27,617 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Transport Equipment: 27,490 to 27,620 (+0.48%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Mining Ex-Oil and Gas GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Mining, Quarrying ex-Oil & Gas (NAICS 212) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 27,277 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Mining, Quarrying ex-Oil & Gas (NAICS 212): 26,810 to 27,280 (+1.75%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Motor Vehicle Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 6,875 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361): 6904 to 6875 (-0.42%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Traveller Accommodation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 18,658 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211): 18,240 to 18,660 (+2.29%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 53,242 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72): 52,680 to 53,240 (+1.06%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 107,358 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Durable Manufacturing: 106,400 to 107,400 (+0.86%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Non-Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Non-Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 91,199 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Non-Durable Manufacturing: 92,200 to 91,200 (-1.09%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Residential Construction GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Residential Construction (NAICS 236) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 54,395 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Residential Construction (NAICS 236): 53,160 to 54,400 (+2.32%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Truck Transportation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Truck Transportation (NAICS 484) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 23,574 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | GDP — Truck Transportation (NAICS 484): 23,470 to 23,570 (+0.45%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Health and Social Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 192,310 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62): 191,700 to 192,300 (+0.32%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (NAICS 71) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 19,419 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (NAICS 71): 19,600 to 19,420 (-0.90%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — Food Services was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 35,261 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — Food Services: 35,060 to 35,260 (+0.58%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| GDP nowcast: monthly GDP for 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,352,903 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,340,000 to 2,353,000 (+0.56%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| GDP (monthly output) nowcast (2026-03-01): next monthly GDP print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,339,731 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,352,903 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,340,000 to 2,353,000 (+0.56%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: policy pillar lower-band — Monetary Policy Stance (composite) ≥ 1.575 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 20 times, same grade | May 31, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or above 1.57 by 2026-06-30. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-30. | Inconclusive | Monetary Policy Stance (composite): bound ≥ 1.575 was already cleared at prediction time (2.25) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Belief: policy pillar upper-band — Monetary Policy Stance (composite) ≤ 2.925 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 20 times, same grade | May 31, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or below 2.92 by 2026-06-30. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-30. | Inconclusive | Monetary Policy Stance (composite): bound ≤ 2.925 was already cleared at prediction time (2.25) by more than the signal's own movement could threaten over the horizon — trivial band pass, NOT a confirmed forecast; inconclusive |
| Steel PPI remains above 340 through Q2Autonomous scan - Directional forecast | Apr 1, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Steel PPI had to be at or above 340 by 2026-06-30. | Actual value 135.40 on 2026-06-30. | Inconclusive | Steel PPI: 135.4 to 135.4 (+0.00%) — predicted INCREASE; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Business Closures (Canada) next print leaning down to 45,624Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | Business Closures (Canada) had to be at or below 46,736 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 47,672 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | Business Closures (Canada): 46,740 to 47,670 (+2.00%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) next print leaning up to 166,605Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) had to be at or above 166,371 by 2026-08-16. | Actual value 168,091 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23): 166,400 to 168,100 (+1.03%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-29): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning up to 9,614Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 3 times, same grade | Jun 30, 2026 | Jul 27, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or above 9,438 by 2026-07-27. | Actual value 9,061 on 2026-06-30. | Incorrect | AESO — Total Generation: 9360 to 9061 (-3.19%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-25): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.04Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 28, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.02 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 3.02 on 2026-06-26. | Inconclusive | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.02 to 3 (-0.66%) — predicted up Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries next print leaning down to 580,253Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries had to be at or below 585,827 by 2026-07-23. | Actual value 593,940 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries: 585,800 to 593,900 (+1.38%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP: Manufacturing next print leaning up to 199,646Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 22, 2026 | GDP: Manufacturing had to be at or above 198,729 by 2026-07-22. | Actual value 198,612 on 2026-04-01. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'GDP: Manufacturing' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): GDP — All Services-Producing Industries next print leaning down to 1,758,173Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 22, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries had to be at or below 1,762,291 by 2026-07-22. | Actual value 1,766,207 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries: 1,762,000 to 1,766,000 (+0.22%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Services-Producing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 1,766,207 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries: 1,762,000 to 1,766,000 (+0.22%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Goods-Producing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 593,940 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries: 585,800 to 593,900 (+1.38%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Manufacturing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP: Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 198,612 on 2026-04-01. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'GDP: Manufacturing' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Rental Demand Pressure (Canada) next print leaning down to -3.36Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Rental Demand Pressure (Canada) had to be at or below -2.94 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value -2.58 on 2026-01-01. | Inconclusive | Rental Demand Pressure (Canada): -2.943 to -2.578 (-12.41%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) next print leaning down to -3.72Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) had to be at or below -2.79 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value -1.93 on 2026-01-01. | Incorrect | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada): -2.791 to -1.926 (-30.98%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-28): AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net next print leaning down to 23.38Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jul 26, 2026 | AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net had to be at or below 26 by 2026-07-26. | Actual value -153 on 2026-06-29. | Correct | AESO Saskatchewan Intertie Imports — Net: 0 to -153 (+0.00%) — predicted down — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Total International Migration (Canada) next print leaning down to -124,903Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Total International Migration (Canada) had to be at or below -113,035 by 2026-11-10. | Actual value -64,822 on 2026-01-01. | Incorrect | Total International Migration (Canada): -113,000 to -64,820 (-42.65%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-27): AESO — Total Generation next print leaning down to 8,921Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 28, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | AESO — Total Generation had to be at or below 9,154 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 9,061 on 2026-06-28. | Correct | AESO — Total Generation: 9308 to 9061 (-2.65%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-26): AESO Pool Price — 24h Average next print leaning up to 17.65Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 28, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average had to be at or above 17.50 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 12.89 on 2026-06-27. | Correct | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average: 1.43 to 12.89 (+801.40%) — predicted up — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Policy Rate ≥ 2.025 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 22 times, same grade | May 28, 2026 | Jun 27, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-06-27. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-27. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.025 at deadline 2026-06-27 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Policy Rate ≤ 2.475 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 22 times, same grade | May 28, 2026 | Jun 27, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-06-27. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-27. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≤ 2.475 at deadline 2026-06-27 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): cfsi next print leaning down to 0.0191Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | cfsi had to be at or below 0.02 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 0.04 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | cfsi: 0.02 to 0.04 (+100.00%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Housing Affordability Threshold (composite) next print leaning up to 0.3976Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 | Housing Affordability Threshold (composite) had to be at or above 0.3774 by 2026-08-05. | Actual value 0.3983 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Housing Affordability Threshold (composite): 0.3774 to 0.3983 (+5.54%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-25): AESO Pool Price — 24h Average next print leaning down to 11.47Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 26, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average had to be at or below 13.66 by 2026-07-23. | Actual value 1.43 on 2026-06-26. | Correct | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average: 17.5 to 1.43 (-91.83%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-23): gold next print leaning down to 4,068Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | gold had to be at or below 4,130 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 3,990 on 2026-06-24. | Correct | gold: 4130 to 3990 (-3.38%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,216Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,214 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,230 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Manitoba — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1214 to 1230 (+1.30%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,294Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,292 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,294 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1292 to 1294 (+0.19%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,200Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,197 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,162 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1197 to 1162 (-2.96%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta) next print leaning up to 1,373Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta) had to be at or above 1,371 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 1,394 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Avg Weekly Earnings (Alberta): 1371 to 1394 (+1.69%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings) next print leaning down to 3.34Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings) had to be at or below 3.43 by 2026-08-15. | Actual value 4.06 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Wage Growth (Avg Weekly Earnings): 3.43 to 4.06 (+18.37%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-25): WTI Crude Oil next print leaning up to 71.46Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 71.38 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 69.26 on 2026-06-26. | Incorrect | WTI Crude Oil: 71.38 to 69.26 (-2.97%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,373Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,371 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,388 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings: 1371 to 1388 (+1.22%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Construction Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,634Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,630 by 2026-08-14. | Actual value 1,655 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings: 1630 to 1655 (+1.58%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) next print leaning up to 1,373Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) had to be at or above 1,371 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 1,394 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH): 1371 to 1394 (+1.69%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) next print leaning up to 1,337Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) had to be at or above 1,333 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 1,346 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada): 1333 to 1346 (+0.94%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) next print leaning up to 1,335Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) had to be at or above 1,333 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 1,346 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada): 1333 to 1346 (+0.94%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Climate forecast 2026-05: no high-severity climate-shock event is observed in the next 30 days (Climate Shock Severity ≤ 0.5 through 30d)Forecast - Directional forecast | May 26, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | Climate Shock Severity had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-06-25. | Actual value 0.25 on 2026-06-25. | Correct | Climate Shock Severity: 0.25 ≤ 0.5 at deadline 2026-06-25 — climate threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CPI Inflation ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 19 times, same grade | May 26, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-06-25. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-25. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 ≥ 2.24 at deadline 2026-06-25 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CPI Inflation ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast - registered 19 times, same grade | May 26, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-06-25. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-25. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 ≤ 3.36 at deadline 2026-06-25 — belief threshold test — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-23): AESO Pool Price — 24h Average next print leaning up to 101.97Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 22, 2026 | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average had to be at or above 94.58 by 2026-07-22. | Actual value 40.65 on 2026-06-24. | Incorrect | AESO Pool Price — 24h Average: 94.58 to 40.65 (-57.02%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-23): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning down to 3.03Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.06 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 2.99 on 2026-06-24. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.06 to 2.99 (-2.29%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Private Transportation CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-04 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — Private Transportation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Motor Vehicles IPPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-04 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | IPPI — Motor Vehicles was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-07 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Trade Imports from United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Goods CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-04 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI — Goods (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-07 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Merchandise Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Merchandise Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Merchandise Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-02 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 4 times, same grade | Jun 25, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Merchandise Imports — Total (Canada, BoP SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | This call expired before it could be graded — the measurement it depended on is not published in a form the grader can score. |
| Jobs (unemployment rate) nowcast (2026-04-01): next jobs report (LFS) leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 22, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.90 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 6.60 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.9 to 6.6 (-4.35%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| CPI (inflation) nowcast (2026-04-01): next CPI print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 21, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3.2 (+14.29%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| GDP (monthly output) nowcast (2026-02-01): next monthly GDP print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 21, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,348,361 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 2,339,731 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,348,000 to 2,340,000 (-0.37%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Retail sales nowcast (2026-02-01): next retail-sales print leaning down ↓Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 21, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Retail Sales had to be at or below 12,513,494 by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 27,457,787 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | Retail Sales: 12,510,000 to 27,460,000 (+119.43%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): USD/CAD Exchange Rate next print leaning up to 1.39Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.38 by 2026-06-30. | Actual value 1.39 on 2026-06-04. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.384 to 1.39 (+0.43%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads next print leaning down to -64.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 13, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or below -63.76 by 2026-08-03. | Actual value -63.90 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads: -63.76 to -63.9 (+0.21%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-08): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 34,549Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 11, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 34,479 by 2026-07-31. | Actual value 34,412 on 2026-06-09. | Inconclusive | TSX Composite: 34,670 to 35,000 (+0.95%) — predicted up Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning down to 9,739,782Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or below 9,752,691 by 2026-07-29. | Actual value 9,787,281 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,753,000 to 9,787,000 (+0.35%) — predicted down; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) next print leaning up to 21,060Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 4, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) had to be at or above 21,034 by 2026-07-25. | Actual value 21,122 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA): 21,030 to 21,120 (+0.42%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) next print leaning up to 22,641Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) had to be at or above 22,600 by 2026-07-23. | Actual value 22,604 on 2026-05-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA): 22,610 to 22,670 (+0.27%) — predicted up, bar ≥22,600 cleared Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-29): TSX Composite next print leaning up to 34,843Nowcast - Release nowcast - registered 2 times, same grade | Jun 1, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | TSX Composite had to be at or above 34,769 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 35,170 on 2026-06-02. | Correct | TSX Composite: 34,770 to 35,170 (+1.15%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY next print leaning down to 3.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or below 3.21 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 3.72 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY: 3.214 to 3.723 (+15.82%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 2,662Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 2,657 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 2,670 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS): 2657 to 2670 (+0.52%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) next print leaning up to 3,198Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) had to be at or above 3,192 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 4,921 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC): 3192 to 4921 (+54.17%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales next print leaning up to 9,490,078Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales had to be at or above 9,467,302 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 9,588,209 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales: 9,467,000 to 9,588,000 (+1.28%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning down to 6.99Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or below 7 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 6.60 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS): 7 to 6.6 (-5.71%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans next print leaning up to 926,463Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans had to be at or above 920,748 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 922,002 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans: 920,700 to 922,000 (+0.14%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): BoC CPI-Trim next print leaning up to 2.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 2.20 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 2 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | BoC CPI-Trim: 2.2 to 2 (-9.09%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): CPI Inflation next print leaning down to 2.79Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.80 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3.2 (+14.29%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) next print leaning up to 268.99Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 265.62 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 247.02 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): 265.6 to 247 (-7.00%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Manufacturing Sales (Canada) next print leaning up to 74,058,466Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Manufacturing Sales (Canada) had to be at or above 73,567,252 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 77,052,850 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Manufacturing Sales (Canada): 73,570,000 to 77,050,000 (+4.74%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): PR Admissions — Total (Canada, monthly) next print leaning up to 30,031Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | PR Admissions — Total (Canada, monthly) had to be at or above 29,440 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 29,730 on 2026-04-01. | Inconclusive | PR Admissions — Total (Canada, monthly): 29,440 to 29,730 (+0.99%) — predicted up; the move was smaller than typical release-to-release noise — graded inconclusive |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Retail Sales next print leaning up to 12,530,650Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | Retail Sales had to be at or above 12,513,494 by 2026-07-21. | Actual value 27,457,787 on 2026-03-01. | Correct | Retail Sales: 12,510,000 to 27,460,000 (+119.43%) — predicted up — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) next print leaning flat ↔ to 21,822Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 30, 2026 | Jul 20, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at 21,805 by 2026-07-20. | Actual value 22,633 on 2026-05-01. | Incorrect | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National): 21,800 to 22,630 (+3.80%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada National Unemployment Rate next print leaning down to 6.84Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 30, 2026 | Jul 20, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 6.90 by 2026-07-20. | Actual value 6.60 on 2026-05-01. | Correct | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.9 to 6.6 (-4.35%) — predicted down — correct Graded against the first published print. |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): GDP Monthly (All Industries) next print leaning up to 2,355,010Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 30, 2026 | Jul 20, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,348,361 by 2026-07-20. | Actual value 2,339,731 on 2026-03-01. | Incorrect | GDP Monthly (All Industries): 2,348,000 to 2,340,000 (-0.37%) — predicted up — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Manufacturing Sales / Shipments (Canada) nowcast: 2026-04-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jul 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Sales (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-07-01. | Actual value 77,052,850 on 2026-04-01. | Incorrect | Manufacturing Sales (Canada): 73,570,000 to 77,050,000 (+4.74%) — predicted down — missed Graded against the first published print. |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.66) within 30dchat - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | May 21, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.66 by 2026-06-20. | Actual value 2.80 on 2026-06-20. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 3.2 to 2.8 (-12.50%) — predicted down — correct Graded against revised data; no first print was captured. |
| BoC rate unchanged or higher at next decisionAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | May 6, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-06-20. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-20. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 ≥ 2.25 at deadline 2026-06-20 — band threshold test — correct |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise (at or above 2469422.55) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | May 18, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,469,423 by 2026-06-17. | Actual value 2,362,482 on 2026-06-17. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: GDP Monthly (All Industries) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-06-17, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CPI Inflation ≥ 1.92 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | May 5, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 1.92 by 2026-06-04. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-06-04. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Inflation had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-06-04, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CPI Inflation ≤ 2.88 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | May 5, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.88 by 2026-06-04. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-06-04. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: CPI Inflation had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-06-04, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Trade balance will remain elevated or rise further next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | Trade Balance was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 72,773 on 2026-06-03. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Trade Balance' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| BoC overnight rate will hold at 2.25% at the next decisionMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-06-03. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct |
| GoC 5yr bond yield will rise over the next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-06-03. | Actual value 3.07 on 2026-06-03. | Incorrect | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.27 to 3.07 (-6.12%) — predicted up — missed |
| VIX drops below 22 within 60 daysAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | Apr 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026 | vix had to be at or below 22 by 2026-06-01. | Actual value 15.80 on 2026-06-01. | Correct | vix: 23.65 to 15.8 (-33.19%) — predicted down — correct |
| CPI inflation will move higher next monthMonthly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 3.20 on 2026-05-27. | Correct | CPI Inflation: 2.8 to 3.2 (+14.29%) — predicted up — correct |
| Employment change will deteriorate next month as demand deceleration feeds into labour marketMonthly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | Toronto CMA Unemployment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 6.60 on 2026-05-27. | Incorrect | Canada National Unemployment Rate: 6.9 to 6.6 (-4.35%) — predicted up — missed |
| GoC 5yr bond yield will continue rising over the next monthMonthly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 3.12 on 2026-05-27. | Correct | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield: 3.11 to 3.12 (+0.32%) — predicted up — correct |
| WTI crude oil will remain elevated but moderate slightly over the next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 89.62 on 2026-05-27. | Correct | WTI Crude Oil: 96.77 to 89.62 (-7.39%) — predicted down — correct |
| BoC overnight rate will hold at 2.25% at the next decisionMonthly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-27. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-05-27. | Correct | BoC Policy Rate: 2.25 to 2.25 (+0.00%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct |
| WTI crude oil will hold elevated or rise further over the next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-22. | Actual value 95.85 on 2026-05-22. | Correct | WTI Crude Oil: 92.87 to 95.85 (+3.21%) — predicted up — correct |
| Trade balance will remain elevated but moderate slightly next monthMonthly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | Trade Balance was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-22. | Actual value 72,773 on 2026-05-22. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'Trade Balance' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| Insolvency filings will trend higher over the next two weeksWeekly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | Consumer Insolvency Filings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-18. | Actual value 3,612 on 2026-05-18. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Consumer Insolvency Filings had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-18, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Housing starts will decline over the next two weeksWeekly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-18. | Actual value 247.02 on 2026-05-18. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-18, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Insolvency filings will trend higher over the next two weeksWeekly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 11, 2026 | Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-11. | Actual value 3,612 on 2026-05-11. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Consumer Insolvency Filings had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-11, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| Housing starts will decline over the next two weeksWeekly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | Apr 27, 2026 | May 11, 2026 | Housing starts total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-11. | Actual value 247.02 on 2026-05-11. | Correct | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR): 264.7 to 247 (-6.69%) — predicted down — correct |
| BoC holds or cuts further by MayAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | Apr 1, 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Bank of Canada overnight rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-05-15. | Actual value 2.25 on 2026-05-11. | Correct | Early validation: BoC overnight rate is an administered policy rate (changes only on BoC decision days). Last decision left it at 2.25%; next decision (May 27) is AFTER the May 15 deadline, so the value at deadline is locked at 2.25%. |
| Retail gasoline price will rise this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | May 9, 2026 | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-09. | Actual value 187.30 on 2026-05-09. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-09, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| 5yr posted mortgage rate will hold flat this weekWeekly - Directional forecast - registered 2 times, same grade | May 4, 2026 | May 9, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-09. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-05-09. | Correct | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted): 6.09 to 6.09 (+0.00%) — predicted FLAT (±1%) — correct |
| TSX Composite will decline this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | May 9, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-09. | Actual value 34,078 on 2026-05-09. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 33,640 to 34,080 (+1.30%) — predicted down — missed |
| USD/CAD will decline (CAD strengthens) this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | May 4, 2026 | May 9, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-09. | Actual value 1.37 on 2026-05-09. | Incorrect | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.361 to 1.369 (+0.55%) — predicted down — missed |
| USD/CAD will drift slightly lower this week as CAD benefits from trade surplus and stabilizing oil pricesWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-02. | Actual value 1.36 on 2026-05-02. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.361 to 1.358 (-0.29%) — predicted down — correct |
| TSX Composite will decline further this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-02. | Actual value 33,891 on 2026-05-02. | Incorrect | TSX Composite: 33,820 to 33,890 (+0.22%) — predicted down — missed |
| Retail gasoline prices will decline slightly this week following WTI crude pullbackWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-02. | Actual value 177.10 on 2026-05-02. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-05-02, and none in the 45d grace since (46d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| TSX Financials will underperform Energy this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 27, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | TSX financials vs energy was checked against the written threshold by 2026-05-02. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'TSX financials vs energy' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| USD/CAD will hold flat or drift slightly lower this week as CAD stabilizes near current levelsWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-04-27. | Actual value 1.36 on 2026-04-28. | Correct | USD/CAD Exchange Rate: 1.366 to 1.361 (-0.34%) — predicted down — correct |
| TSX Composite will decline further this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-04-27. | Actual value 33,818 on 2026-04-28. | Correct | TSX Composite: 33,960 to 33,820 (-0.40%) — predicted down — correct |
| Retail gasoline prices will rise this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-04-27. | Actual value 177.10 on 2026-04-28. | Correct | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto: 163.8 to 177.1 (+8.12%) — predicted up — correct |
| 5yr posted mortgage rate will hold flat this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-04-27. | Actual value 6.09 on 2026-04-28. | Expired | expired — the source data went stale: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) had no new observation between the prediction date and deadline 2026-04-27, and none in the 45d grace since (57d past deadline) — the prediction window closed without a readout. |
| TSX Financials will underperform Energy this weekWeekly - Directional forecast | Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 | TSX financials vs energy was checked against the written threshold by 2026-04-27. | Data did not print cleanly in-window. | Expired | expired — Test metric 'TSX financials vs energy' has no rows in Economic signals at all. Either signal was never populated or the generator referencing it is retired. Marking expired so this prediction exits the active reconciliation loop. |
| GoC 5yr yield stays below 3.30% through AprilAutonomous scan - Directional forecast | Apr 1, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or below 3.30 by 2026-04-30. | Actual value 3.05 on 2026-04-01. | Correct | Early validation: GoC 5-Year Bond Yield = 3.05 hit threshold 29 days early |
No-call ledger
Honest silences
Silence is a feature: when the evidence is not strong enough before the deadline, the page says no call instead of manufacturing confidence.
Jul 7, 2026
July trade print
No call
No public call made before the print.
Pending ledger
Calls awaiting print
| Prediction | Made on | Deadline | Registered value | What will grade it | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) next print leaning down to 78.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) moves down at next print (modeled 78.17) | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) had to be at or below 78.34 by 2026-08-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-12-01): Alberta Residential Gas Demand — Winter Daily Peak next print leaning up to 697,788Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Alberta Residential Gas Demand — Winter Daily Peak moves up at next print (modeled 697,788) | Alberta Residential Gas Demand — Winter Daily Peak had to be at or above 613,283 by 2026-08-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) next print leaning down to 48.16Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) moves down at next print (modeled 48.16) | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) had to be at or below 48.50 by 2026-08-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Farm Product Price Index next print leaning up to 197.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | Farm Product Price Index moves up at next print (modeled 197.05) | Farm Product Price Index had to be at or above 195.80 by 2026-08-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-02-01): Buyer Traffic / Showings Index next print leaning up to 50.09Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Buyer Traffic / Showings Index moves up at next print (modeled 50.09) | Buyer Traffic / Showings Index had to be at or above 50 by 2026-08-15. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): cfsi next print leaning down to 0.0191Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 28, 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 | cfsi moves down at next print (modeled 0.0191) | cfsi had to be at or below 0.02 by 2026-08-18. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to fall by 2026-08-22Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) to fall by 2026-08-22 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 87.2765) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 87.2765 by 2026-08-22 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 87.28 by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4792) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4792 by 2026-08-22 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.48 by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 8, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) next print leaning up to 168,372Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) moves up at next print (modeled 168,372) | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) had to be at or above 168,091 by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): GDP: Manufacturing next print leaning up to 203,228Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 2, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | GDP: Manufacturing moves up at next print (modeled 203,228) | GDP: Manufacturing had to be at or above 198,612 by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Farm Product Price Index expected to fall by 2026-08-22Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | Farm Product Price Index to fall by 2026-08-22 | Farm Product Price Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2026-08-22Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 22, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2026-08-22 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-22. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-08-23. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-08-23. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 9, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-23. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-05: the federal government survives confidence tests (no collapse) (Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | May 25, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 for 90d | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-08-23. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.71) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 25, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 0.71 by 2026-08-24 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.71 by 2026-08-24. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 10, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-24. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-05: the legislated federal carbon price floor holds at its statutory $110/tCO2e level (no regulatory reversal) (Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | May 26, 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 for 90d | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current had to be at or above 110 by 2026-08-24. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Closures — Finance next print leaning up to 4.75Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Business Closures — Finance moves up at next print (modeled 4.75) | Business Closures — Finance had to be at or above 4.74 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Closures — Technology next print leaning up to 4.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Business Closures — Technology moves up at next print (modeled 4.86) | Business Closures — Technology had to be at or above 4.85 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-09-01): Business Death Rate (National) next print leaning up to 1.89Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Business Death Rate (National) moves up at next print (modeled 1.89) | Business Death Rate (National) had to be at or above 1.89 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Openings — Construction next print leaning down to 5.34Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Business Openings — Construction moves down at next print (modeled 5.34) | Business Openings — Construction had to be at or below 5.34 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Business Openings — Healthcare next print leaning up to 4.00Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 5, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Business Openings — Healthcare moves up at next print (modeled 4.00) | Business Openings — Healthcare had to be at or above 3.99 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-25Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to rise by 2026-08-25 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-05: Household debt service ratio ≥ 13.8415 (±5% band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 27, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio ≥ 13.8415 for 90d | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 13.84 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-05: Household debt service ratio ≤ 15.2985 (±5% band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 27, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio ≤ 15.2985 for 90d | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 15.30 by 2026-08-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): BoC Overnight Rate next print leaning up to 2.27Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 5, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate moves up at next print (modeled 2.27) | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-08-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): Monetary Policy Stance (composite) next print leaning up to 2.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 5, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) moves up at next print (modeled 2.25) | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or above 2.25 by 2026-08-26. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4798) within 30dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4798 by 2026-08-26 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.48 by 2026-08-26. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 12, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-26. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Private Sector Capital Investment expected to rise by 2026-08-26Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | Private Sector Capital Investment to rise by 2026-08-26 | Private Sector Capital Investment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-26. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-03-01): Insolvency Rate — Accommodation & Food next print leaning up to 70.71Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 7, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Insolvency Rate — Accommodation & Food moves up at next print (modeled 70.71) | Insolvency Rate — Accommodation & Food had to be at or above 70 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 2.8288 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 2.8288 for 90d | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or above 2.83 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8357.36 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8357.36 for 90d | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load had to be at or above 8,357 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2838.88 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2838.88 for 90d | Baltic Dry Index had to be at or above 2,839 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.0646 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.0646 for 90d | Government Bond 10Y Yield had to be at or above 3.06 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: CAD/USD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2152 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2152 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.22 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Corporate Credit Spread ≥ 0.6512 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) ≥ 0.6512 for 90d | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) had to be at or above 0.6512 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -2.1269 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -2.1269 for 90d | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -2.13 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8382 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8382 for 90d | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY had to be at or above 4.84 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2152 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2152 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.22 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.0536 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.0536 for 90d | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.05 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.7632 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.7632 for 90d | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 2.76 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 233.7482 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) ≥ 233.7482 for 90d | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 233.75 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2081.2 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2081.2 for 90d | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 2,081 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 2710.4 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 2710.4 for 90d | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) had to be at or above 2,710 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 50.424 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 50.424 for 90d | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 50.42 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 58.52 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 58.52 for 90d | Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 58.52 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30282.6494 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30282.6494 for 90d | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or above 30,283 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: WTI Crude Oil ≥ 77.2288 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil ≥ 77.2288 for 90d | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 77.23 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Housing starts ≥ 17444.0 (±20% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) ≥ 17444.0 for 90d | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or above 17,444 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: Unemployment rate ≥ 6.072 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 6.072 for 90d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.07 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: CPI inflation ≥ 2.38 (±15% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.38 for 90d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.38 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: GDP monthly ≥ 2230942.95 (±5% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) ≥ 2230942.95 for 90d | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,230,943 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-05: TSX composite ≥ 30334.8306 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | May 29, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 30334.8306 for 90d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 30,335 by 2026-08-27. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 14, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-28. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 30, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-08-29. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 30, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-08-29. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 15, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2026-08-29Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2026-08-29 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-29. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 16, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal Government — Total Revenues (Monthly) expected to fall by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Federal Government — Total Revenues (Monthly) to fall by 2026-08-30 | Federal Government — Total Revenues (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: BoC overnight rate ≥ 2.025 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate ≥ 2.025 for 60d | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: BoC overnight rate ≤ 2.475 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate ≤ 2.475 for 60d | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: CPI year-over-year ≥ 2.72 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.72 for 60d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.72 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: CPI year-over-year ≤ 3.68 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≤ 3.68 for 60d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.68 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: Unemployment rate ≥ 5.94 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 5.94 for 60d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 5.94 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: Unemployment rate ≤ 7.26 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≤ 7.26 for 60d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 7.26 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≥ 2.52 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) ≥ 2.52 for 60d | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or above 2.52 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≤ 3.78 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) ≤ 3.78 for 60d | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or below 3.78 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: TSX composite ≥ 31482.0 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 31482.0 for 60d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 31,482 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-07: TSX composite ≤ 38478.0 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | TSX Composite ≤ 38478.0 for 60d | TSX Composite had to be at or below 38,478 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY to rise by 2026-08-30 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Halifax CMA expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Employment: Halifax CMA to rise by 2026-08-30 | Halifax CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to fall by 2026-08-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-08-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-08-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) to fall by 2026-08-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario — Provincial Health Spending expected to fall by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Ontario — Provincial Health Spending to fall by 2026-08-30 | Ontario — Provincial Health Spending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-08-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-08-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to rise by 2026-08-30 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-08-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) to rise by 2026-08-30 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate to fall by 2026-08-30 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-08-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-08-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: net NPR flow remains positive through 90 days (inflows ≥ outflows — no acute student-cap collapse) (Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Canadian QoQ population growth remains positive through 90 days (no acute net-outflow regime) (Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-06: the legislated federal carbon price floor holds at its statutory $110/tCO2e level (no regulatory reversal) (Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 for 90d | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current had to be at or above 110 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-06: the federal government survives confidence tests (no collapse) (Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 for 90d | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-06: government healthcare-tone remains at-or-above steady (50) through 90 days (no austere transfer-restraint shift) (Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 for 90d | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone had to be at or above 50 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-06: government indigenous-relations tone stays ≥ 40 through 90 days (no sharp reconciliation-pace retreat) (Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 for 90d | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone had to be at or above 40 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-06: Household debt service ratio ≥ 13.8415 (±5% band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio ≥ 13.8415 for 90d | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 13.84 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-06: Household debt service ratio ≤ 15.2985 (±5% band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio ≤ 15.2985 for 90d | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 15.30 by 2026-08-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Sentiment Dissonance expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Sentiment Dissonance to fall by 2026-08-31 | Sentiment Dissonance was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Education, Law and Social/Community/Government Services (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Work Permit Demand — Education, Law and Social/Community/Government Services (Canada, monthly) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Work Permit Demand — Education, Law and Social/Community/Government Services (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-08: no high-severity climate-shock event is observed in the next 30 days (Climate Shock Severity ≤ 0.5 through 30d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Climate Shock Severity ≤ 0.5 for 30d | Climate Shock Severity had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | CIBC — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Common expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common to rise by 2026-08-31 | BoC CPI-Common was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Median expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median to rise by 2026-08-31 | BoC CPI-Median was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-08-31 | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | US Unemployment Rate to rise by 2026-08-31 | US Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to fall by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: National Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | National Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | Royal Bank of Canada — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | TD Bank — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-08-31 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 17, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage to fall by 2026-08-31 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2026-08-31 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canadian Financial Stress Index next print leaning down to 0.0188Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canadian Financial Stress Index moves down at next print (modeled 0.0188) | Canadian Financial Stress Index had to be at or below 0.02 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment next print leaning down to 24.93Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment moves down at next print (modeled 24.93) | BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment had to be at or below 25.06 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Employment — Construction (NAICS 23) next print leaning up to 1,640Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 11, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Construction (NAICS 23) moves up at next print (modeled 1,640) | Employment — Construction (NAICS 23) had to be at or above 1,630 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-08-31 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CIBC — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | CIBC — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CIBC — Total Assets to rise by 2026-08-31 | CIBC — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2026-08-31 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 5-Year Bond Yield expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield to rise by 2026-08-31 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Services Imports — Total expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Services Imports — Total to rise by 2026-08-31 | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Bank Lending Rate expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Average Bank Lending Rate to fall by 2026-08-31 | Big 6 Prime Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing to rise by 2026-08-31 | GDP — Machinery Mfg was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2026-08-31 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Recreation, Education & Reading (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Recreation, Education & Reading (Ontario) to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI — Recreation & Education was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Interprovincial Labour Flight expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Interprovincial Labour Flight to fall by 2026-08-31 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield to rise by 2026-08-31 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-08-31 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2026-08-31 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Employment — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 2-Year Yield expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GoC 2-Year Yield to fall by 2026-08-31 | Government Bond 2Y Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Real Estate expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate to rise by 2026-08-31 | GDP — Real Estate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2026-08-31 | TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-08-31 | TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost to fall by 2026-08-31 | CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to fall by 2026-08-31 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Labour Availability expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Construction Labour Availability to rise by 2026-08-31 | Construction Labour Availability was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Employment — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-08-31 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction to rise by 2026-08-31 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Employment: Finance and insurance expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Employment: Finance and insurance to rise by 2026-08-31 | Canada Employment: Finance and insurance was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-08-31 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-08-31 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Imports — United States expected to rise by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Imports — United States to rise by 2026-08-31 | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-08-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2026-08-31 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 2.8288 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 2.8288 for 90d | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or above 2.83 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8077.52 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8077.52 for 90d | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load had to be at or above 8,078 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2837.12 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2837.12 for 90d | Baltic Dry Index had to be at or above 2,837 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.036 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.036 for 90d | Government Bond 10Y Yield had to be at or above 3.04 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Brent Crude Oil ≥ 90.42 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Brent Crude Oil ≥ 90.42 for 90d | Brent Crude Oil had to be at or above 90.42 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: CAD/USD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2177 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2177 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.22 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Housing starts ≥ 17444.0 (±20% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) ≥ 17444.0 for 90d | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or above 17,444 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Unemployment rate ≥ 6.072 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 6.072 for 90d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 6.07 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Corporate Credit Spread ≥ 0.6424 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) ≥ 0.6424 for 90d | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) had to be at or above 0.6424 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: CPI inflation ≥ 2.38 (±15% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.38 for 90d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.38 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -2.1269 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -2.1269 for 90d | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -2.13 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8382 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8382 for 90d | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY had to be at or above 4.84 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Employment: Winnipeg CMA ≥ 446.248 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) ≥ 446.248 for 90d | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) had to be at or above 446.25 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2177 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2177 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.22 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: GDP monthly ≥ 2222744.45 (±5% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) ≥ 2222744.45 for 90d | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,222,744 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.0008 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.0008 for 90d | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.00 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.684 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.684 for 90d | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 2.68 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 233.7482 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) ≥ 233.7482 for 90d | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 233.75 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2081.2 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2081.2 for 90d | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 2,081 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 2710.4 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 2710.4 for 90d | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) had to be at or above 2,710 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 50.424 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 50.424 for 90d | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 50.42 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 58.52 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 58.52 for 90d | Prince Edward Island — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 58.52 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: TSX composite ≥ 30596.8094 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 30596.8094 for 90d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 30,597 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30566.7037 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30566.7037 for 90d | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or above 30,567 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-06: WTI Crude Oil ≥ 80.7136 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil ≥ 80.7136 for 90d | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 80.71 by 2026-08-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Credit Growth expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Household Credit Growth to fall by 2026-09-01 | Household Credit Growth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-09-01 | British Columbia — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-09-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Goods-Producing Industries expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | GDP: Goods-Producing Industries to fall by 2026-09-01 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Finance Wage Growth (YoY %) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Finance Wage Growth (YoY %) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Finance Wage Growth (YoY %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2026-09-01 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Banking & Other Depository Credit Intermediation expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | I-O Industry: Banking & Other Depository Credit Intermediation to fall by 2026-09-01 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Computer Systems Design & Related Services expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | I-O Industry: Computer Systems Design & Related Services to rise by 2026-09-01 | GDP — Computer Systems Design & Related (NAICS 5415) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-01 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-01 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-01 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Total Merchandise Exports expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Total Merchandise Exports to rise by 2026-09-01 | Total Merchandise Exports was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) to fall by 2026-09-01 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: NHPI Land Only (Toronto CMA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | NHPI Land Only (Toronto CMA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | NHPI Land Only (Toronto CMA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing: Plastics & Rubber (NAICS 326) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Plastics & Rubber (NAICS 326) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Canada Manufacturing: Plastics & Rubber (NAICS 326) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Manitoba Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Saskatchewan Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Consumer Insolvency Filings expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Consumer Insolvency Filings to rise by 2026-09-01 | Consumer Insolvency Filings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced to rise by 2026-09-01 | Bank Mortgage Funds Advanced was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food, YoY expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Food, YoY to fall by 2026-09-01 | CPI — Food, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) to fall by 2026-09-01 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Building Materials (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 18, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY to fall by 2026-09-01 | CPI — Tuition Fees, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2026-09-01 | British Columbia — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Financial System Review — Composite Vulnerability expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | BoC Financial System Review — Composite Vulnerability to fall by 2026-09-01 | BoC FSR Composite Risk Assessment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total to rise by 2026-09-01 | Alberta — Merchandise Exports, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) for 2026-06-01 to rise vs 2026-04-01 (~107,988) | GDP — Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Crop Production GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since been re-measured and no longer beats a simple rule of thumb. | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Crop Production GDP (Canada) for 2026-06-01 to rise vs 2026-04-01 (~29,498) | GDP — Crop Production (NAICS 111) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-04-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) for 2026-06-01 to rise vs 2026-04-01 (~54,504) | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index next print leaning up to 32.13Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index moves up at next print (modeled 32.13) | Vacancy-Driven Wage Pressure Index had to be at or above 31 by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to rise by 2026-09-01 | cfsi was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to rise by 2026-09-01 | cfsi was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) to fall by 2026-09-01 | New Housing Price Index — Toronto CMA (composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) to fall by 2026-09-01 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (BC) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (BC) to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI — All-Items (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to rise by 2026-09-01 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Excluding Food & Energy expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI — Excluding Food & Energy to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI — Excluding Food & Energy was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Excluding Volatile Components expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | CPI Excluding Volatile Components to rise by 2026-09-01 | CPI Excluding Volatile Components was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) to fall by 2026-09-01 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-06-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-03-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) for 2026-06-01 to rise vs 2026-03-01 (~9,426) | GDP — Plastics & Rubber was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Final Domestic Demand (Canada) nowcast: 2026-05-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-01-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Final Domestic Demand (Canada) for 2026-05-01 to rise vs 2026-01-01 (~2,611,380) | Final Domestic Demand was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Avg Weekly Earnings expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings to rise by 2026-09-01 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) to fall by 2026-09-01 | K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Undergraduate Tuition, Canadian students (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Undergraduate Tuition, Canadian students (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-01 | Undergraduate Tuition, Canadian students (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Insolvency Rate — Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | Insolvency Rate — Manufacturing to fall by 2026-09-01 | Insolvency Rate — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2026-09-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2026-09-01 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-01. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-09-02. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-09-02. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 39dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-09-02 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-09-02. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to hold (at 1.4088) within 41dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at 1.4088 by 2026-09-02 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at 1.41 by 2026-09-02. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 2, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-02. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar lower-band — CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≥ 2.24 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.24 by 2026-09-03. | Pending |
| Belief: costs pillar upper-band — CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | CA CPI YoY ≤ 3.36 for 30d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.36 by 2026-09-03. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 41dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-09-03 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-09-03. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-03. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) expected to fall by 2026-09-04Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) to fall by 2026-09-04 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to fall by 2026-09-04Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to fall by 2026-09-04 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to rise by 2026-09-05Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) to rise by 2026-09-05 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 32dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 32d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 32dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 32d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 33dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 33d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 33dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 33d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 34dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 34d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 34dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 34d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 35dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 35d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 35dBelief - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 35d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 36dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 36d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 36dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 36d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 37dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 30, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 37d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 37dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 30, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 37d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 40dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-09-05 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.432) within 40dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.432 by 2026-09-05 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.43 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to rise by 2026-09-05Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate to rise by 2026-09-05 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 43dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 43d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 43dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 43d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 46dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 46d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 46dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 46d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar lower-band — BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 47dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≥ 2.025 for 47d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Belief: rates pillar upper-band — BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 47dBelief - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | BoC Rate ≤ 2.475 for 47d | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Rate Sensitivity Index next print leaning down to -6.10Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 16, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | Rate Sensitivity Index moves down at next print (modeled -6.10) | Rate Sensitivity Index had to be at or below -5.98 by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-09-05Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-09-05 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-05. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment Rate (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Employment Rate (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-07 | Employment Rate (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-09-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate to rise by 2026-09-07 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-09-07 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to rise by 2026-09-07Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Concrete PPI to rise by 2026-09-07 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment ON expected to fall by 2026-09-07Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Construction Employment ON to fall by 2026-09-07 | Construction Employment (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-07. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-12-01): AECO + Western Canadian Storage Levels next print leaning up to 26,611,800Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | AECO + Western Canadian Storage Levels moves up at next print (modeled 26,611,800) | AECO + Western Canadian Storage Levels had to be at or above 26,575,205 by 2026-09-08. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 26, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to United States expected to rise by 2026-09-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 | Exports — to United States to rise by 2026-09-09 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-09. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-10. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 28, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) next print leaning up to 204.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 204.01) | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) had to be at or above 203.60 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Electricity (Ontario) next print leaning up to 182.78Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Electricity (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 182.78) | CPI Electricity (Ontario) had to be at or above 182.50 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Food (Ontario) next print leaning up to 205.17Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 205.17) | CPI Food (Ontario) had to be at or above 204.80 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) next print leaning up to 207.62Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 207.62) | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) had to be at or above 207.20 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Grocery (Ontario) next print leaning up to 203.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Grocery (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 203.86) | CPI Grocery (Ontario) had to be at or above 203.50 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Gasoline (Ontario) next print leaning up to 241.86Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 241.86) | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) had to be at or above 241.50 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) next print leaning up to 160.12Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 160.12) | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) had to be at or above 159.90 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI All-Items (Ontario) next print leaning up to 169.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI All-Items (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 169.51) | CPI All-Items (Ontario) had to be at or above 169.30 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Rented Accommodation (Ontario) next print leaning up to 164.22Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | CPI Rented Accommodation (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 164.22) | CPI Rented Accommodation (Ontario) had to be at or above 164 by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to fall by 2026-09-11Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to fall by 2026-09-11 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) expected to fall by 2026-09-11Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) to fall by 2026-09-11 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-22): Canadian Rate Squeeze Index next print leaning down to -0.7617Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index moves down at next print (modeled -0.7617) | Canadian Rate Squeeze Index had to be at or below -0.75 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-20): GoC 5-Year Bond Yield next print leaning up to 3.37Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield moves up at next print (modeled 3.37) | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.35 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-20): gold next print leaning up to 4,522Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | gold moves up at next print (modeled 4,522) | gold had to be at or above 4,516 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-21): S&P 500 Index next print leaning up to 7,712Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | S&P 500 Index moves up at next print (modeled 7,712) | S&P 500 Index had to be at or above 7,674 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-20): S&P/TSX Capped Financials next print leaning down to 90.53Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | S&P/TSX Capped Financials moves down at next print (modeled 90.53) | S&P/TSX Capped Financials had to be at or below 91.79 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-20): Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) next print leaning up to 0.7412Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) moves up at next print (modeled 0.7412) | Yield Curve Slope (10yr-2yr) had to be at or above 0.73 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 29, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): CPI Transportation (Ontario) next print leaning up to 183.71Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 183.71) | CPI Transportation (Ontario) had to be at or above 183.50 by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-09-12Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 12, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-09-12 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-12. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 30, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-13. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-09-13 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-09-13. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to fall by 2026-09-14Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Concrete PPI to fall by 2026-09-14 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment ON expected to rise by 2026-09-14Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Construction Employment ON to rise by 2026-09-14 | Construction Employment (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Credit Growth expected to fall (at or below 1.8715) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Household Credit Growth at or below 1.8715 by 2026-09-14 | Household Credit Growth had to be at or below 1.87 by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or below 1.41) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 1.41 by 2026-09-14 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.41 by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or below 1.42) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 1.42 by 2026-09-14 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.42 by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-14. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 76.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 76.0 by 2026-09-15 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 76 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.0954) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -67.0954 by 2026-09-15 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.10 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-15 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4 by 2026-09-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.40 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.41) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.41 by 2026-09-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 0.7182) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 0.7182 by 2026-09-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 0.7182 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-09-15 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4163) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4163 by 2026-09-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.42 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-15 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-15 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.38) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.38 by 2026-09-15 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.38 by 2026-09-15. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to United States expected to rise by 2026-09-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | Exports — to United States to rise by 2026-09-16 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-16. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 78.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 78.0 by 2026-09-16 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 78 by 2026-09-16. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 74.5) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 74.5 by 2026-09-16 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 74.50 by 2026-09-16. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.8) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.8 by 2026-09-16 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-09-16. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or below 1.4131) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 1.4131 by 2026-09-17 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.41 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4838) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4838 by 2026-09-17 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.48 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-09-17 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.66) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or below 2.66 by 2026-09-17 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.66 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 76.39) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 76.39 by 2026-09-17 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 76.39 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: Total Initial EI Claims expected to rise (at or above 571662.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | Total Initial EI Claims at or above 571662.0 by 2026-09-17 | Total Initial EI Claims had to be at or above 571,662 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.25 by 2026-09-17 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-17 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-17. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2026-09-18Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2026-09-18 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) expected to rise by 2026-09-18Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) to rise by 2026-09-18 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.0 by 2026-09-18 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3 by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 76.54) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 76.54 by 2026-09-18 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 76.54 by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to hold (at 76.54) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Sep 18, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at 76.54 by 2026-09-18 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at 76.54 by 2026-09-18. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 5, 2026 | Sep 19, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-19. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-09-19Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 19, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-09-19 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-19. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-20. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) next print leaning up to 8,962,880Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) moves up at next print (modeled 8,962,880) | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) had to be at or above 8,829,187 by 2026-09-20. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): US PCE Price Index (YoY) next print leaning down to 3.18Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 31, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | US PCE Price Index (YoY) moves down at next print (modeled 3.18) | US PCE Price Index (YoY) had to be at or below 3.67 by 2026-09-20. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.49) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or below 2.49 by 2026-09-20 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.49 by 2026-09-20. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.1) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.1 by 2026-09-20 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.10 by 2026-09-20. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 7, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries next print leaning down to 1,283Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries moves down at next print (modeled 1,283) | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Service-Producing Industries had to be at or below 1,286 by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Construction Avg Weekly Earnings next print leaning up to 1,595Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings moves up at next print (modeled 1,595) | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings had to be at or above 1,592 by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.49) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or below 2.49 by 2026-09-21 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.49 by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to rise by 2026-09-21Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 29, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | Concrete PPI to rise by 2026-09-21 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment ON expected to fall by 2026-09-21Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 29, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | Construction Employment ON to fall by 2026-09-21 | Construction Employment (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-21. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 8, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Canada — Real Wage Growth next print leaning down to -1.13Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | Canada — Real Wage Growth moves down at next print (modeled -1.13) | Canada — Real Wage Growth had to be at or below 0.1464 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government) next print leaning up to 1,924,484Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government) moves up at next print (modeled 1,924,484) | GDP — Business Sector (excludes Government) had to be at or above 1,918,734 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries next print leaning up to 601,456Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries moves up at next print (modeled 601,456) | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries had to be at or above 598,673 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) next print leaning up to 395,275Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) moves up at next print (modeled 395,275) | GDP — Industrial Production (Mining + Mfg + Utilities) had to be at or above 392,844 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP Monthly (All Industries) next print leaning up to 2,370,364Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) moves up at next print (modeled 2,370,364) | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,362,482 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) next print leaning down to 44,043Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) moves down at next print (modeled 44,043) | GDP — Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (NAICS 11) had to be at or below 44,461 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Retail Trade next print leaning up to 125,285Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Retail Trade moves up at next print (modeled 125,285) | GDP — Retail Trade had to be at or above 124,895 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) next print leaning up to 182,494Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) moves up at next print (modeled 182,494) | GDP — Finance & Insurance (NAICS 52) had to be at or above 182,117 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) next print leaning down to 167,206Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) moves down at next print (modeled 167,206) | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) had to be at or below 167,701 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Food Services next print leaning up to 35,847Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — Food Services moves up at next print (modeled 35,847) | GDP — Food Services had to be at or above 35,511 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — All Services-Producing Industries next print leaning up to 1,776,649Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries moves up at next print (modeled 1,776,649) | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries had to be at or above 1,770,490 by 2026-09-22. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-23. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51) next print leaning up to 83,613Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51) moves up at next print (modeled 83,613) | GDP — Information & Cultural Industries (NAICS 51) had to be at or above 83,295 by 2026-09-23. | Pending |
| Chat: Total Initial EI Claims expected to fall (at or below 560000.0) within 60dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 25, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | Total Initial EI Claims at or below 560000.0 by 2026-09-23 | Total Initial EI Claims had to be at or below 560,000 by 2026-09-23. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 63dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-09-23 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-09-23. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 24, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-24. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): US Fed Funds Rate next print leaning down to 3.62Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 24, 2026 | US Fed Funds Rate moves down at next print (modeled 3.62) | US Fed Funds Rate had to be at or below 3.63 by 2026-09-24. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Fed Policy Stance next print leaning up to 3.62Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 24, 2026 | Fed Policy Stance moves up at next print (modeled 3.62) | Fed Policy Stance had to be at or above 3.62 by 2026-09-24. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): US 2-Year Treasury Yield next print leaning down to 4.22Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 4, 2026 | Sep 24, 2026 | US 2-Year Treasury Yield moves down at next print (modeled 4.22) | US 2-Year Treasury Yield had to be at or below 4.22 by 2026-09-24. | Pending |
| Inflationary Regime inactive: CPI Inflation below 2.0Regime - Directional forecast | Aug 11, 2026 | Sep 25, 2026 | CPI Inflation remains below 2.0 for 45d | CPI Inflation had to be below 2 by 2026-09-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to fall by 2026-09-25Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 29, 2026 | Sep 25, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to fall by 2026-09-25 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) expected to fall by 2026-09-25Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Sep 25, 2026 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) to fall by 2026-09-25 | US Manufacturing Employment (All Employees) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-25. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding next print leaning up to 61,076,041Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding moves up at next print (modeled 61,076,041) | Bank of Montreal — HELOC Outstanding had to be at or above 60,859,645 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): Bank of Montreal — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,538,750Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets moves up at next print (modeled 1,538,750) | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,532,978 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,574,325Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets moves up at next print (modeled 1,574,325) | Bank of Nova Scotia — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,567,151 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility next print leaning down to 3.24Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility moves down at next print (modeled 3.24) | CAD/USD 3-Month Realized Volatility had to be at or below 3.31 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): CIBC — Total Assets next print leaning up to 1,171,427Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | CIBC — Total Assets moves up at next print (modeled 1,171,427) | CIBC — Total Assets had to be at or above 1,167,737 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Exports — to United States next print leaning down to 53,515Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Exports — to United States moves down at next print (modeled 53,515) | Exports — to United States had to be at or below 53,889 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Imports — from United States next print leaning down to 43,687Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Imports — from United States moves down at next print (modeled 43,687) | Imports — from United States had to be at or below 43,909 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): Interbank Funding Velocity next print leaning up to 54,512,149,818Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Interbank Funding Velocity moves up at next print (modeled 54,512,149,818) | Interbank Funding Velocity had to be at or above 54,348,857,256 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): National Bank — Total Assets next print leaning up to 642,514Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | National Bank — Total Assets moves up at next print (modeled 642,514) | National Bank — Total Assets had to be at or above 638,916 by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-09-26Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-09-26 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BCPI — Excluding Energy next print leaning down to 564.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 7, 2026 | Sep 27, 2026 | BCPI — Excluding Energy moves down at next print (modeled 564.01) | BCPI — Excluding Energy had to be at or below 571.55 by 2026-09-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) next print leaning down to 0.7871Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 7, 2026 | Sep 27, 2026 | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) moves down at next print (modeled 0.7871) | Yield Curve Slope (30y - 5y) had to be at or below 0.79 by 2026-09-27. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to rise by 2026-09-28Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | Concrete PPI to rise by 2026-09-28 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment ON expected to fall by 2026-09-28Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | Construction Employment ON to fall by 2026-09-28 | Construction Employment (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-28. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 2,664Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) moves down at next print (modeled 2,664) | Alberta — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 2,670 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning up to 7.08Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 7.08) | Alberta — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or above 7 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change next print leaning up to 2.82Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change moves up at next print (modeled 2.82) | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change had to be at or above 2.79 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 2,950Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS) moves down at next print (modeled 2,950) | British Columbia — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 2,955 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS) next print leaning up to 6.223Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 6.223) | British Columbia — Unemployment Rate (LFS) had to be at or above 6.20 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) next print leaning up to 21,271Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) moves up at next print (modeled 21,271) | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) had to be at or above 21,215 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Canada National Unemployment Rate next print leaning down to 6.38Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate moves down at next print (modeled 6.38) | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 6.40 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11) next print leaning down to 215.13Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11) moves down at next print (modeled 215.13) | Employment — Agriculture (NAICS 11) had to be at or below 215.80 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) next print leaning up to 2,036Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) moves up at next print (modeled 2,036) | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) had to be at or above 2,031 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Employment Rate (Canada) next print leaning up to 60.99Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Employment Rate (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled 60.99) | Employment Rate (Canada) had to be at or above 60.90 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 760.92Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 760.92) | Manitoba — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 755.60 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate next print leaning up to 6.13Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate moves up at next print (modeled 6.13) | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate had to be at or above 6.09 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning down to 242.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS) moves down at next print (modeled 242.15) | Newfoundland & Labrador — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or below 243.60 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 541.22Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 541.22) | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 537.90 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 96.13Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 96.13) | Prince Edward Island — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 96 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 4,614Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 4,614) | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 4,607 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) next print leaning up to 620.84Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) moves up at next print (modeled 620.84) | Saskatchewan — Total Employment (LFS) had to be at or above 619.20 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: net NPR flow remains positive through 90 days (inflows ≥ outflows — no acute student-cap collapse) (Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Canadian QoQ population growth remains positive through 90 days (no acute net-outflow regime) (Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-07: the legislated federal carbon price floor holds at its statutory $110/tCO2e level (no regulatory reversal) (Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 110 for 90d | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current had to be at or above 110 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: the federal government survives confidence tests (no collapse) (Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 for 90d | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: government defense-tone remains at-or-above steady (50) through 90 days (NATO-2%-trajectory holds) (Hansard Defense-Spending Tone ≥ 50 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Hansard Defense-Spending Tone ≥ 50 for 90d | Hansard Defense-Spending Tone had to be at or above 50 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: government foreign-affairs orientation stays ≥ 40 through 90 days (no full isolationist retreat) (Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation ≥ 40 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation ≥ 40 for 90d | Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation had to be at or above 40 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: government healthcare-tone remains at-or-above steady (50) through 90 days (no austere transfer-restraint shift) (Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 for 90d | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone had to be at or above 50 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: government indigenous-relations tone stays ≥ 40 through 90 days (no sharp reconciliation-pace retreat) (Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 for 90d | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone had to be at or above 40 by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-09-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-09-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-09-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-09-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) next print leaning up to 3,013Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) moves up at next print (modeled 3,013) | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) had to be at or above 3,010 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-09-30 | Prince Edward Island — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-09-30 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to United States expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Exports — to United States to fall by 2026-09-30 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing: Printing (NAICS 323) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Printing (NAICS 323) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Manufacturing: Printing (NAICS 323) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Services Imports — Total expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Services Imports — Total to rise by 2026-09-30 | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Ontario Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Machinery Manufacturing to rise by 2026-09-30 | GDP — Machinery Mfg was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: BoC overnight rate ≥ 2.025 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate ≥ 2.025 for 60d | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or above 2.02 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: BoC overnight rate ≤ 2.475 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate ≤ 2.475 for 60d | BoC Overnight Rate had to be at or below 2.48 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: CPI year-over-year ≥ 2.38 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.38 for 60d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.38 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: CPI year-over-year ≤ 3.22 (±15% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≤ 3.22 for 60d | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 3.22 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: Unemployment rate ≥ 5.85 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 5.85 for 60d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 5.85 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: Unemployment rate ≤ 7.15 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≤ 7.15 for 60d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or below 7.15 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≥ 3.392 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) ≥ 3.392 for 60d | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or above 3.39 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: CORRA-BoC target spread (bps) ≤ 5.088 (±20% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) ≤ 5.088 for 60d | CORRA − BoC Target Spread (bps) had to be at or below 5.09 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: TSX composite ≥ 31800.4207 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 31800.4207 for 60d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 31,800 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Forecast 2026-08: TSX composite ≤ 38867.1809 (±10% band) for 60dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | TSX Composite ≤ 38867.1809 for 60d | TSX Composite had to be at or below 38,867 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Active Businesses (Canada) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Active Businesses (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2026-09-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Construction Employment to fall by 2026-09-30 | Construction Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to fall by 2026-09-30 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Real Estate expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate to rise by 2026-09-30 | GDP — Real Estate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY to fall by 2026-09-30 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Exports — Mexico expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Exports — Mexico to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Exports — Mexico was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2026-09-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 3.2763 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 3.2763 for 90d | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or above 3.28 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis ≥ 2.3918 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis ≥ 2.3918 for 90d | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis had to be at or above 2.39 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8052.0 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load ≥ 8052.0 for 90d | Alberta — Internal Electricity Load had to be at or above 8,052 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2200.88 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2200.88 for 90d | Baltic Dry Index had to be at or above 2,201 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: BCPI — Agriculture ≥ 320.1968 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | BCPI — Agriculture ≥ 320.1968 for 90d | BCPI — Agriculture had to be at or above 320.20 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 2.9722 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 2.9722 for 90d | Government Bond 10Y Yield had to be at or above 2.97 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Brent Crude Oil ≥ 67.3112 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Brent Crude Oil ≥ 67.3112 for 90d | Brent Crude Oil had to be at or above 67.31 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Housing starts ≥ 18106.4 (±20% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) ≥ 18106.4 for 90d | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or above 18,106 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Canada Retail Trade (Total, SA) ≥ 64651296.16 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) ≥ 64651296.16 for 90d | Canada Retail Trade Total (SA) had to be at or above 64,651,296 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Unemployment rate ≥ 5.808 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 5.808 for 90d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 5.81 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Copper Price (LME / CME composite) ≥ 11865.7013 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Copper Futures ≥ 11865.7013 for 90d | Copper Futures had to be at or above 11,866 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: CPI inflation ≥ 2.72 (±15% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.72 for 90d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.72 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -3.7249 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -3.7249 for 90d | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -3.72 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY ≥ 3.0043 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY ≥ 3.0043 for 90d | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY had to be at or above 3.00 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8125 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.8125 for 90d | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY had to be at or above 4.81 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Employment: Halifax CMA ≥ 262.152 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Halifax CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) ≥ 262.152 for 90d | Halifax CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) had to be at or above 262.15 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Employment: Winnipeg CMA ≥ 450.296 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) ≥ 450.296 for 90d | Winnipeg CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) had to be at or above 450.30 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2505 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2505 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.25 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: GDP monthly ≥ 2235257.85 (±5% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) ≥ 2235257.85 for 90d | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,235,258 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.9656 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.9656 for 90d | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 2.97 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.64 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield ≥ 2.64 for 90d | GoC 5-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 2.64 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) ≥ 217.3776 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) ≥ 217.3776 for 90d | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 217.38 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2786.96 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2786.96 for 90d | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 2,787 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 49.896 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 49.896 for 90d | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 49.90 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: TSX composite ≥ 30644.9447 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 30644.9447 for 90d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 30,645 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30674.16 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30674.16 for 90d | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or above 30,674 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: US Share of Total Exports (%) ≥ 0.6085 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | US Share of Total Exports (%) ≥ 0.6085 for 90d | US Share of Total Exports (%) had to be at or above 0.6085 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: Global Wheat Price ≥ 194.3784 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Global Wheat Price ≥ 194.3784 for 90d | Global Wheat Price had to be at or above 194.38 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-07: WTI Crude Oil ≥ 60.0424 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Jul 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil ≥ 60.0424 for 90d | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 60.04 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Halifax CMA expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Employment: Halifax CMA to rise by 2026-09-30 | Halifax CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to rise by 2026-09-30 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY to rise by 2026-09-30 | CPI — Fresh Fruit, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2026-09-30 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-09-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Quarterly Population, Female (New Brunswick) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Quarterly Population, Female (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Quarterly Population, Male (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to hold (at 76.0) within 105dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at 76.0 by 2026-09-30 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at 76 by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2026-09-30 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-09-30 | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2026-09-30 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Retail Sales (MoM %) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | US Retail Sales (MoM %) to rise by 2026-09-30 | US Retail Sales (Nominal Level) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: London CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | London CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) to rise by 2026-09-30 | London CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Quebec — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Employment — Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) to rise by 2026-09-30 | Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employment (deprecated alias) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Food Services expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | GDP — Food Services to rise by 2026-09-30 | GDP — Food Services was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Retail Sales expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Retail Sales to rise by 2026-09-30 | Retail Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | New Brunswick — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-09-30 | New Brunswick — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2026-09-30 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Bakery & Cereal Products, YoY expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | CPI — Bakery & Cereal Products, YoY to rise by 2026-09-30 | CPI — Bakery & Cereal Products, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-09-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-09-30 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-09-30. | Pending |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Exports (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~77,933) | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Trade Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~53,982) | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Unemployment Rate (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-07-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Unemployment Rate (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to fall vs 2026-07-01 (~6) | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Goods CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Goods CPI (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to fall vs 2026-06-01 (~150) | CPI — Goods (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Shelter CPI (British Columbia) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Shelter CPI (British Columbia) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~167) | CPI — Shelter (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~53,982) | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~107,722) | GDP — Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Goods-Producing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Goods-Producing Output (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~601,256) | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Manufacturing Output (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Output (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~200,578) | GDP: Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Residential Construction GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Residential Construction GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~55,563) | GDP — Residential Construction (NAICS 236) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Motor Vehicle Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Motor Vehicle Manufacturing GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to fall vs 2026-05-01 (~7,410) | GDP — Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Truck Transportation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Truck Transportation GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~23,680) | GDP — Truck Transportation (NAICS 484) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Health and Social Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Health and Social Services GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~193,576) | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~19,462) | GDP — Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (NAICS 71) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Traveller Accommodation GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Traveller Accommodation GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~18,794) | GDP — Traveller Accommodation (NAICS 7211) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Accommodation and Food Services GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~53,990) | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to fall vs 2026-05-01 (~9,062) | GDP — Plastics & Rubber was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Non-Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Non-Durable Manufacturing GDP (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~92,772) | GDP — Non-Durable Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Manufacturing Sales / Shipments (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Sales / Shipments (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~78,654,996) | Manufacturing Sales (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Merchandise Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~77,618) | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Merchandise Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Merchandise Imports (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~73,769) | Merchandise Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Services Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Services Imports (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~21,140) | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Energy Exports next print leaning down to 17,902Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Energy Exports moves down at next print (modeled 17,902) | Energy Exports had to be at or below 18,371 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Manufacturing Exports next print leaning up to 30,009Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Manufacturing Exports moves up at next print (modeled 30,009) | Manufacturing Exports had to be at or above 29,703 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Terms of Trade Index next print leaning down to 107.81Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Terms of Trade Index moves down at next print (modeled 107.81) | Terms of Trade Index had to be at or below 109.79 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to fall by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to fall by 2026-10-01 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) to rise by 2026-10-01 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Retail sales nowcast (2026-05-01): next retail-sales print leaning mixed ↔Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Retail Sales moves flat at next retail-sales print | Retail Sales had to be at 27,886,258 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| GDP (monthly output) nowcast (2026-05-01): next monthly GDP print leaning up ↑Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) moves up at next monthly GDP print | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,362,482 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate to fall by 2026-10-01 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Output Gap signals elevated risk of a jump in the unemployment rate by 2026-10-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | signal up | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be up from 6.70 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| WTI Crude Oil signals elevated risk of a sharp monthly drop in housing starts by 2026-10-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | signal down | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be down from 205.05 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| WTI Crude Oil signals elevated risk of a jump in the unemployment rate by 2026-10-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | signal up | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be up from 6.70 by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to rise by 2026-10-01 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) to rise by 2026-10-01 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC CPI-Common expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common to rise by 2026-10-01 | BoC CPI-Common was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY to rise by 2026-10-01 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY to rise by 2026-10-01 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick — Labor Force Participation Rate expected to fall by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | New Brunswick — Labor Force Participation Rate to fall by 2026-10-01 | New Brunswick — Labor Force Participation Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales to rise by 2026-10-01 | Nova Scotia — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Big 6 Bank Stock Average expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average to rise by 2026-10-01 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Exports (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~77,458) | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Trade Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~53,961) | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Trade Imports from United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since weakened and can no longer be told apart from chance. | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Trade Imports from United States (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~42,297) | Canada Imports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Energy CPI (Alberta) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since weakened and can no longer be told apart from chance. | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Energy CPI (Alberta) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~249) | CPI — Energy (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Energy CPI (British Columbia) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since weakened and can no longer be told apart from chance. | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Energy CPI (British Columbia) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~243) | CPI — Energy (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Gasoline CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since weakened and can no longer be told apart from chance. | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Gasoline CPI (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~275) | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Private Transportation CPI (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcastThe method behind this forecast has since been re-measured and no longer beats a simple rule of thumb. | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Private Transportation CPI (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~186) | CPI — Private Transportation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-07-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 12, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-07-01 to rise vs 2026-05-01 (~53,961) | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-10-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | TSX Composite to rise by 2026-10-01 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Population (Quarterly) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Canada Population (Quarterly) to rise by 2026-10-01 | Canada Population (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) to fall by 2026-10-01 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) to rise by 2026-10-01 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Population (Quarterly) expected to rise by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Canada Population (Quarterly) to rise by 2026-10-01 | Canada Population (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Capital Expenditures: Total Non-Residential expected to fall by 2026-10-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Capital Expenditures: Total Non-Residential to fall by 2026-10-01 | Capital Expenditures: Total Non-Residential was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: IPPI Pulp & Paper expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | IPPI Pulp & Paper to rise by 2026-10-02 | IPPI — Pulp & Paper was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Recreation, Education & Reading (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Recreation, Education & Reading (Canada) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Recreation & Education was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Excluding Food & Energy expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Excluding Food & Energy to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Excluding Food & Energy was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Excluding Volatile Components expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Excluding Volatile Components to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI Excluding Volatile Components was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Food (Canada) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: IPPI Pulp & Paper expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | IPPI Pulp & Paper to rise by 2026-10-02 | IPPI — Pulp & Paper was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to fall by 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Alberta) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (BC) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (BC) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — All-Items (BC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items (Quebec) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) to fall by 2026-10-02 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to fall by 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to fall by 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Housing Price Index (Canada, Total) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | New Housing Price Index (Canada, Total) to fall by 2026-10-02 | New Housing Price Index (Canada, Total) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Homeowners' Replacement Cost was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-02 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: NHPI House Only expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | NHPI House Only to rise by 2026-10-02 | NHPI — House Only was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Labour Availability expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Construction Labour Availability to rise by 2026-10-02 | Construction Labour Availability was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger to fall by 2026-10-02 | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to rise by 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to rise by 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank CDS Movement expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Bank CDS Movement to fall by 2026-10-02 | Bank CDS Movement was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank CDS Movement expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Bank CDS Movement to rise by 2026-10-02 | Bank CDS Movement was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) expected to fall by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) to fall by 2026-10-02 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to rise by 2026-10-02 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | TSX Composite to rise by 2026-10-02 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Monthly Change) to rise by 2026-10-02 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (Total Level) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 105dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-10-02 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 1.95) within 105dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 1.95 by 2026-10-02 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 1.95 by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) to rise by 2026-10-02 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario Total Employment expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Ontario Total Employment to rise by 2026-10-02 | Ontario Total Employment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings expected to rise by 2026-10-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings to rise by 2026-10-02 | Manufacturing Avg Weekly Earnings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-02. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) next print leaning up to 339.67Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 13, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) moves up at next print (modeled 339.67) | Employment — Mining, Oil & Gas (NAICS 21) had to be at or above 339.10 by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): US CPI Year-over-Year next print leaning down to 2.70Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 13, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | US CPI Year-over-Year moves down at next print (modeled 2.70) | US CPI Year-over-Year had to be at or below 3.54 by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to rise by 2026-10-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Household Net Worth to rise by 2026-10-03 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to fall by 2026-10-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Household Net Worth to fall by 2026-10-03 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to fall by 2026-10-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Household Net Worth to fall by 2026-10-03 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to rise by 2026-10-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Household Net Worth to rise by 2026-10-03 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-03. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): US Producer Price Index (YoY) next print leaning down to 6.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 14, 2026 | Oct 4, 2026 | US Producer Price Index (YoY) moves down at next print (modeled 6.59) | US Producer Price Index (YoY) had to be at or below 8.27 by 2026-10-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to fall by 2026-10-05Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 | Concrete PPI to fall by 2026-10-05 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-05. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) next print leaning down to 2,478,534Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) moves down at next print (modeled 2,478,534) | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) had to be at or below 2,483,643 by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331) next print leaning up to 6,784,495Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331) moves up at next print (modeled 6,784,495) | Canada Manufacturing: Primary Metal (NAICS 331) had to be at or above 6,737,810 by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) next print leaning down to 136,272,698Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) moves down at next print (modeled 136,272,698) | Canada Wholesale Trade Total (SA) had to be at or below 136,503,194 by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Total Electricity Generation (Canada) next print leaning down to 47.98Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) moves down at next print (modeled 47.98) | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) had to be at or below 49.01 by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): Forestry Output next print leaning down to 2,857Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Forestry Output moves down at next print (modeled 2,857) | Forestry Output had to be at or below 2,870 by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Net Worth expected to fall by 2026-10-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Household Net Worth to fall by 2026-10-06 | Household Net Worth was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-01): AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis next print leaning down to -2.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis moves down at next print (modeled -2.05) | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis had to be at or below -2.05 by 2026-10-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-05-31): Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity) next print leaning up to 18.66Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity) moves up at next print (modeled 18.66) | Big Six Banks — Average Leverage (Assets-to-Equity) had to be at or above 18.01 by 2026-10-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada Manufacturing: Fabricated Metal (NAICS 332) next print leaning up to 4,855,226Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Fabricated Metal (NAICS 332) moves up at next print (modeled 4,855,226) | Canada Manufacturing: Fabricated Metal (NAICS 332) had to be at or above 4,845,711 by 2026-10-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Imports — South Korea expected to fall by 2026-10-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 7, 2026 | Canada Imports — South Korea to fall by 2026-10-07 | Canada Imports — South Korea was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BoC CPI-Common next print leaning up to 2.72Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | BoC CPI-Common moves up at next print (modeled 2.72) | BoC CPI-Common had to be at or above 2.70 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BoC CPI-Median next print leaning up to 2.03Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | BoC CPI-Median moves up at next print (modeled 2.03) | BoC CPI-Median had to be at or above 2 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): BoC CPI-Trim next print leaning up to 1.94Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | BoC CPI-Trim moves up at next print (modeled 1.94) | BoC CPI-Trim had to be at or above 1.90 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI Inflation next print leaning up to 3.02Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI Inflation moves up at next print (modeled 3.02) | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — All-Items (Alberta) next print leaning up to 180.71Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) moves up at next print (modeled 180.71) | CPI — All-Items (Alberta) had to be at or above 179.80 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — All-Items (BC) next print leaning up to 163.92Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (BC) moves up at next print (modeled 163.92) | CPI — All-Items (BC) had to be at or above 163.70 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — All-Items (Ontario) next print leaning up to 170.50Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 170.50) | CPI — All-Items (Ontario) had to be at or above 169.90 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — All-Items (Quebec) next print leaning up to 167.69Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) moves up at next print (modeled 167.69) | CPI — All-Items (Quebec) had to be at or above 167 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Energy (Canada) next print leaning up to 224.30Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — Energy (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled 224.30) | CPI — Energy (Canada) had to be at or above 221 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Food from Stores next print leaning up to 200.83Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — Food from Stores moves up at next print (modeled 200.83) | CPI — Food from Stores had to be at or above 200.50 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) next print leaning up to 158.83Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) moves up at next print (modeled 158.83) | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) had to be at or above 158.60 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Owned Accommodation next print leaning up to 196.15Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 18, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | CPI — Owned Accommodation moves up at next print (modeled 196.15) | CPI — Owned Accommodation had to be at or above 195.90 by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY expected to rise by 2026-10-08Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 8, 2026 | Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY to rise by 2026-10-08 | Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-08-01): Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads next print leaning down to -63.93Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads moves down at next print (modeled -63.93) | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or below -63.78 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY next print leaning up to 1.94Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY moves up at next print (modeled 1.94) | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY had to be at or above 1.93 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY next print leaning down to 3.34Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY moves down at next print (modeled 3.34) | CPI — Fresh Vegetables, YoY had to be at or below 3.35 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY next print leaning down to 0.6149Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY moves down at next print (modeled 0.6149) | CPI — Household Operations, Furnishings & Equipment, YoY had to be at or below 0.6211 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Services, YoY next print leaning up to 2.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | CPI — Services, YoY moves up at next print (modeled 2.51) | CPI — Services, YoY had to be at or above 2.50 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): US Industrial Production Index next print leaning up to 103.20Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 19, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | US Industrial Production Index moves up at next print (modeled 103.20) | US Industrial Production Index had to be at or above 102.99 by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2026-10-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 9, 2026 | TSX Composite to rise by 2026-10-09 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) next print leaning down to 18,742Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) moves down at next print (modeled 18,742) | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or below 18,834 by 2026-10-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) next print leaning up to 1,804,970Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) moves up at next print (modeled 1,804,970) | Canada M1 Money Supply (Currency + Demand Deposits) had to be at or above 1,798,068 by 2026-10-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) next print leaning up to 4,110,472Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) moves up at next print (modeled 4,110,472) | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) had to be at or above 4,106,258 by 2026-10-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): IPPI All Commodities YoY next print leaning down to 12.06Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 21, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | IPPI All Commodities YoY moves down at next print (modeled 12.06) | IPPI All Commodities YoY had to be at or below 12.43 by 2026-10-11. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-10-11Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 11, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-10-11 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-11. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): CPI — Gasoline (Canada) next print leaning up to 270.22Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled 270.22) | CPI — Gasoline (Canada) had to be at or above 254.60 by 2026-10-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-07-01): IPPI — Machinery & Equipment next print leaning up to 128.56Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment moves up at next print (modeled 128.56) | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment had to be at or above 128.10 by 2026-10-12. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-06-01): M2 Money Supply Growth next print leaning up to 2,852,091Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 22, 2026 | Oct 12, 2026 | M2 Money Supply Growth moves up at next print (modeled 2,852,091) | M2 Money Supply Growth had to be at or above 2,840,155 by 2026-10-12. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Imports — South Korea expected to fall by 2026-10-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | Canada Imports — South Korea to fall by 2026-10-14 | Canada Imports — South Korea was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to rise (at or above 2.3625) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or above 2.3625 by 2026-10-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.36 by 2026-10-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.25) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.25 by 2026-10-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-10-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-10-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-10-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.3) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.3 by 2026-10-15 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.30 by 2026-10-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.42) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.42 by 2026-10-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.42 by 2026-10-15. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Credit Growth expected to fall (at or below 1.8715) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | Household Credit Growth at or below 1.8715 by 2026-10-15 | Household Credit Growth had to be at or below 1.87 by 2026-10-15. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-10-15 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-10-15. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to fall by 2026-10-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | TSX Composite to fall by 2026-10-16 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-10-16 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.1) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.1 by 2026-10-16 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.10 by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.25) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.25 by 2026-10-16 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 73.74) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 73.74 by 2026-10-16 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 73.74 by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio next print leaning down to 13.24Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio moves down at next print (modeled 13.24) | Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio had to be at or below 13.28 by 2026-10-16. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 74.5) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 74.5 by 2026-10-17 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 74.50 by 2026-10-17. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.5) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.5 by 2026-10-17 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.50 by 2026-10-17. | Pending |
| BoC decision 2026-09-02: holdMonetary policy - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 18, 2026 | hold | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-10-18. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 78.0) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Oct 19, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 78.0 by 2026-10-19 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 78 by 2026-10-19. | Pending |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall (at or below 2235257.85) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Oct 20, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) at or below 2235257.85 by 2026-10-20 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or below 2,235,258 by 2026-10-20. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-10-21 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to hold (at 0.71) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at 0.71 by 2026-10-21 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at 0.71 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4792) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4792 by 2026-10-21 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.48 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.41) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.41 by 2026-10-21 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 1.3384) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 1.3384 by 2026-10-21 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.34 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: Monetary Policy Stance (composite) expected to hold (at or above 2.1375) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) at or above 2.1375 by 2026-10-21 | Monetary Policy Stance (composite) had to be at or above 2.14 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to hold (at 86.62) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at 86.62 by 2026-10-21 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at 86.62 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise (at or above 2341099.0) within 122dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 21, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) at or above 2341099.0 by 2026-10-21 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,341,099 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 126dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Oct 21, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-10-21 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-10-21. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Oct 22, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-10-22 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-10-22. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to fall by 2026-10-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 23, 2026 | TSX Composite to fall by 2026-10-23 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-23. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.7) within 92dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Oct 23, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 0.7 by 2026-10-23 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.7 by 2026-10-23. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.66) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 26, 2026 | Oct 24, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or below 2.66 by 2026-10-24 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.66 by 2026-10-24. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4093) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 25, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4093 by 2026-10-25 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2026-10-25. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 0.71) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 25, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 0.71 by 2026-10-25 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 0.71 by 2026-10-25. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 0.71) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 25, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 0.71 by 2026-10-25 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 0.71 by 2026-10-25. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 99dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 27, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-10-27 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-10-27. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-10-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-10-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-29. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 105dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 16, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-10-29 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-10-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-10-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-10-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-10-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-10-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Manufacturing Shipments: Non-durable goods industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | TSX Composite to fall by 2026-10-30 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: net NPR flow remains positive through 90 days (inflows ≥ outflows — no acute student-cap collapse) (Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Canadian QoQ population growth remains positive through 90 days (no acute net-outflow regime) (Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) ≥ 0 for 90d | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) had to be at or above 0 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-08: the federal industrial carbon price holds at its scheduled $95/tCO2e level (no regulatory reversal) (Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 95 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current ≥ 95 for 90d | Federal Carbon Price Floor — Current had to be at or above 95 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: the federal government survives confidence tests (no collapse) (Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) ≥ 0.5 for 90d | Federal Government Confidence (90d survival prob) had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: government defense-tone remains at-or-above steady (50) through 90 days (NATO-2%-trajectory holds) (Hansard Defense-Spending Tone ≥ 50 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Hansard Defense-Spending Tone ≥ 50 for 90d | Hansard Defense-Spending Tone had to be at or above 50 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: government foreign-affairs orientation stays ≥ 40 through 90 days (no full isolationist retreat) (Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation ≥ 40 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation ≥ 40 for 90d | Hansard Foreign-Affairs Orientation had to be at or above 40 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: government healthcare-tone remains at-or-above steady (50) through 90 days (no austere transfer-restraint shift) (Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone ≥ 50 for 90d | Hansard Healthcare-Spending Tone had to be at or above 50 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: government indigenous-relations tone stays ≥ 40 through 90 days (no sharp reconciliation-pace retreat) (Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 through 90d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone ≥ 40 for 90d | Hansard Indigenous-Relations Tone had to be at or above 40 by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada M3 Money Supply (Broad Money) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US Industrial Production Index expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | US Industrial Production Index to rise by 2026-10-30 | US Industrial Production Index was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ontario Total Employment expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Ontario Total Employment to fall by 2026-10-30 | Ontario Total Employment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-30 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly to fall by 2026-10-30 | Federal — Budgetary Balance, Monthly was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2026-10-30 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-10-30 | CIBC — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Employment — Professional, Scientific & Technical (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Labour Productivity YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-10-30 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to fall by 2026-10-30 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate to rise by 2026-10-30 | Alberta — Labor Force Participation Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate to fall by 2026-10-30 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing (NAICS 3241) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Real Estate Lessors expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Real Estate Lessors to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Lessors of Real Estate (NAICS 5311) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Food Manufacturing expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Food Manufacturing to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Chemical Manufacturing (NAICS 325) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Retail Trade expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Retail Trade to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Retail Trade was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Real Estate Lessors expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Real Estate Lessors to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Lessors of Real Estate (NAICS 5311) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia — Real GDP, Monthly expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | British Columbia — Real GDP, Monthly to rise by 2026-10-30 | British Columbia — Real GDP, Monthly was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to fall by 2026-10-30 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Abbotsford-Mission CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Abbotsford-Mission CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Abbotsford-Mission CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | BoC Overnight Rate to fall by 2026-10-30 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Small Businesses (1-19) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Small Businesses (1-19) to fall by 2026-10-30 | Small Businesses (1-19) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Employment expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Manufacturing Employment to rise by 2026-10-30 | Manufacturing Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD to rise by 2026-10-30 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Ex-Volatile YoY expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | CPI Ex-Volatile YoY to fall by 2026-10-30 | CPI Ex-Volatile YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) to fall by 2026-10-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-30 | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Final Consumption expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Household Final Consumption to rise by 2026-10-30 | Household Final Consumption was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to EU ex-UK expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Exports — to EU ex-UK to fall by 2026-10-30 | Exports — to EU ex-UK was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing (NAICS 3241) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing (NAICS 3241) to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing (NAICS 3241) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Sector Unit Labour Cost expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Business Sector Unit Labour Cost to rise by 2026-10-30 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) to rise by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-10-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) expected to fall by 2026-10-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Oct 30, 2026 | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) to fall by 2026-10-30 | GDP — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY to rise by 2026-10-31 | CPI — Owned Accommodation, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Employment expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Construction Employment to rise by 2026-10-31 | Construction Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) to fall by 2026-10-31 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2026-10-31 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY to fall by 2026-10-31 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY to fall by 2026-10-31 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2026-10-31 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to rise by 2026-10-31 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate to fall by 2026-10-31 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 3.0133 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY ≥ 3.0133 for 90d | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY had to be at or above 3.01 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis ≥ 1.9774 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis ≥ 1.9774 for 90d | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis had to be at or above 1.98 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2404.16 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Baltic Dry Index ≥ 2404.16 for 90d | Baltic Dry Index had to be at or above 2,404 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: BCPI — Agriculture ≥ 311.96 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | BCPI — Agriculture ≥ 311.96 for 90d | BCPI — Agriculture had to be at or above 311.96 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.1173 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Government Bond 10Y Yield ≥ 3.1173 for 90d | Government Bond 10Y Yield had to be at or above 3.12 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Housing starts ≥ 16212.0 (±20% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) ≥ 16212.0 for 90d | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) had to be at or above 16,212 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Unemployment rate ≥ 5.72 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Canada National Unemployment Rate ≥ 5.72 for 90d | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be at or above 5.72 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CMHC Purpose-Built Rental Starts ≥ 9385.2 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CMHC Purpose-Built Rental Starts ≥ 9385.2 for 90d | CMHC Purpose-Built Rental Starts had to be at or above 9,385 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CPI — Electricity, YoY ≥ 2.9709 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Electricity, YoY ≥ 2.9709 for 90d | CPI — Electricity, YoY had to be at or above 2.97 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CPI inflation ≥ 2.38 (±15% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation ≥ 2.38 for 90d | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.38 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -0.6743 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY ≥ -0.6743 for 90d | CPI — Natural Gas, YoY had to be at or above -0.6743 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY ≥ 2.995 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY ≥ 2.995 for 90d | CPI — Rented Accommodation, YoY had to be at or above 3.00 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.5857 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY ≥ 4.5857 for 90d | CPI — Water, Fuel & Electricity (Owned), YoY had to be at or above 4.59 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) ≥ 2641.408 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) ≥ 2641.408 for 90d | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) had to be at or above 2,641 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2346 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate ≥ 1.2346 for 90d | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.23 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: GDP monthly ≥ 2244357.9 (±5% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) ≥ 2244357.9 for 90d | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or above 2,244,358 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.1592 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield ≥ 3.1592 for 90d | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield had to be at or above 3.16 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Housing Completions (Toronto CMA) ≥ 1169.52 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Completions (Toronto CMA) ≥ 1169.52 for 90d | Completions (Toronto CMA) had to be at or above 1,170 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) ≥ 200.4904 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) ≥ 200.4904 for 90d | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 200.49 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2644.4 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) ≥ 2644.4 for 90d | Housing Starts (Montreal CMA) had to be at or above 2,644 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 49.28 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate ≥ 49.28 for 90d | Newfoundland & Labrador — Labor Force Participation Rate had to be at or above 49.28 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: TSX composite ≥ 31245.1047 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | TSX Composite ≥ 31245.1047 for 90d | TSX Composite had to be at or above 31,245 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30998.9694 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | S&P/TSX Composite Index ≥ 30998.9694 for 90d | S&P/TSX Composite Index had to be at or above 30,999 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Unabsorbed Inventory (Toronto CMA) ≥ 499.84 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Unabsorbed Inventory (Toronto CMA) ≥ 499.84 for 90d | Unabsorbed Inventory (Toronto CMA) had to be at or above 499.84 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: US Share of Total Exports (%) ≥ 0.6132 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | US Share of Total Exports (%) ≥ 0.6132 for 90d | US Share of Total Exports (%) had to be at or above 0.6132 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: Global Wheat Price ≥ 175.6905 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Global Wheat Price ≥ 175.6905 for 90d | Global Wheat Price had to be at or above 175.69 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Cross-domain forecast 2026-08: WTI Crude Oil ≥ 74.624 (±12% lower band) for 90dForecast - Directional forecast | Aug 2, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil ≥ 74.624 for 90d | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or above 74.62 by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2026-10-31 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-10-31 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-10-31 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Business & Government Lending expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending to fall by 2026-10-31 | CIBC — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-10-31 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction expected to fall by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction to fall by 2026-10-31 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-10-31 | Saskatchewan — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-10-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Oct 31, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-10-31 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-10-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Labour Availability expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Construction Labour Availability to rise by 2026-11-01 | Construction Labour Availability was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Exports (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~78,128) | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Trade Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Trade Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~54,107) | Canada Exports — United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Exports to United States (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Exports to United States (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~54,107) | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to fall vs the last published month (2026-05-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Plastics and Rubber GDP (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to fall vs 2026-05-01 (~9,063) | GDP — Plastics & Rubber was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Merchandise Exports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Merchandise Exports (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~77,813) | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Merchandise Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Merchandise Imports (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~73,981) | Merchandise Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Services Imports (Canada) nowcast: 2026-08-01 expected to rise vs the last published month (2026-06-01)Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 12, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Services Imports (Canada) for 2026-08-01 to rise vs 2026-06-01 (~21,207) | Services Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) to rise by 2026-11-01 | Avg Hourly Wage (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger to fall by 2026-11-01 | Canada — Sahm Rule Trigger was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.41) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.41 by 2026-11-01 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or below 0.7) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 0.7 by 2026-11-01 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.7 by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Corporate Credit Spread (IG, ETF-implied direction) to rise by 2026-11-01 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Output Gap signals elevated risk of a jump in the unemployment rate by 2026-11-01Certified antecedent - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | signal up | Canada National Unemployment Rate had to be up from 6.70 by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to rise by 2026-11-01 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Non-Residential Building Construction expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | I-O Industry: Non-Residential Building Construction to rise by 2026-11-01 | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to rise by 2026-11-01 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to fall by 2026-11-01 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GoC 10-Year Bond Yield expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | GoC 10-Year Bond Yield to rise by 2026-11-01 | Government Bond 10Y Yield was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Total Electricity Generation (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) to rise by 2026-11-01 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Alberta) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Alberta) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Alberta) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Canada) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Manitoba) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Manitoba) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Manitoba) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Prince Edward Island) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Prince Edward Island) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Prince Edward Island) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Saskatchewan) expected to fall by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Public-Sector Employment (Saskatchewan) to fall by 2026-11-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Saskatchewan) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: British Columbia Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate to rise by 2026-11-01 | British Columbia Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Electricity Generation (Monthly) expected to rise by 2026-11-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | Electricity Generation (Monthly) to rise by 2026-11-01 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: NA — Rwa Total expected to rise by 2026-11-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 2, 2026 | NA — Rwa Total to rise by 2026-11-02 | NA — Rwa Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-02. | Pending |
| Chat: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.36) within 105dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 2, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate at or above 1.36 by 2026-11-02 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.36 by 2026-11-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: NA — Rwa Total expected to fall by 2026-11-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 2, 2026 | NA — Rwa Total to fall by 2026-11-02 | NA — Rwa Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) expected to fall by 2026-11-04Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Nov 4, 2026 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) to fall by 2026-11-04 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2026-11-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 6, 2026 | TSX Composite to rise by 2026-11-06 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Business M&E Investment next print leaning up to 81,418Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Business M&E Investment moves up at next print (modeled 81,418) | Business M&E Investment had to be at or above 81,059 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Canada Population (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 41,505,758Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Canada Population (Quarterly) moves up at next print (modeled 41,505,758) | Canada Population (Quarterly) had to be at or above 41,417,056 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Construction Cost Index next print leaning up to 107.25Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Construction Cost Index moves up at next print (modeled 107.25) | Construction Cost Index had to be at or above 106.50 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD next print leaning down to 31,444Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD moves down at next print (modeled 31,444) | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD had to be at or below 31,665 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Population Growth Momentum (Canada) next print leaning up to -0.377Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Population Growth Momentum (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled -0.377) | Population Growth Momentum (Canada) had to be at or above -0.4127 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Household Final Consumption next print leaning up to 1,447,666Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Household Final Consumption moves up at next print (modeled 1,447,666) | Household Final Consumption had to be at or above 1,439,531 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Residential Investment next print leaning up to 152,067Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | Residential Investment moves up at next print (modeled 152,067) | Residential Investment had to be at or above 151,891 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): SME Financing for Expansion next print leaning down to -1.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 7, 2026 | SME Financing for Expansion moves down at next print (modeled -1.05) | SME Financing for Expansion had to be at or below -1.05 by 2026-11-07. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.464) within 90dchat - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.464 by 2026-11-08 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.46 by 2026-11-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate next print leaning up to 17.28Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate moves up at next print (modeled 17.28) | Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate had to be at or above 15.10 by 2026-11-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Final Domestic Demand next print leaning down to 2,550,847Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | Final Domestic Demand moves down at next print (modeled 2,550,847) | Final Domestic Demand had to be at or below 2,558,296 by 2026-11-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Interest Coverage Ratio next print leaning up to 4.51Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | Corporate Interest Coverage Ratio moves up at next print (modeled 4.51) | Corporate Interest Coverage Ratio had to be at or above 4.46 by 2026-11-08. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Household Debt Service Ratio next print leaning down to 14.73Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 8, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio moves down at next print (modeled 14.73) | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 14.75 by 2026-11-08. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-11-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to rise by 2026-11-09 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Investor Share of Purchases expected to rise by 2026-11-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Investor Share of Purchases to rise by 2026-11-09 | Investor Share of Purchases was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2025-10-01): Age Cohort Stress Index next print leaning up to 2.05Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 26, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Age Cohort Stress Index moves up at next print (modeled 2.05) | Age Cohort Stress Index had to be at or above 1.92 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Big Six avg — Tier1 Ratio next print leaning up to 15.41Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Big Six avg — Tier1 Ratio moves up at next print (modeled 15.41) | Big Six avg — Tier1 Ratio had to be at or above 15.36 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-31): Big Six avg — Total Capital Ratio next print leaning up to 17.35Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Big Six avg — Total Capital Ratio moves up at next print (modeled 17.35) | Big Six avg — Total Capital Ratio had to be at or above 17.32 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing next print leaning down to 0.9821Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing moves down at next print (modeled 0.9821) | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing had to be at or below 0.9939 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Profit Margin — Finance next print leaning up to 48.52Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Corporate Profit Margin — Finance moves up at next print (modeled 48.52) | Corporate Profit Margin — Finance had to be at or above 48.36 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Cash Conversion Cycle: All Industries next print leaning down to 31.26Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | Cash Conversion Cycle: All Industries moves down at next print (modeled 31.26) | Cash Conversion Cycle: All Industries had to be at or below 31.58 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — CET1 Capital Ratio next print leaning up to 13.77Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 24, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 | CIBC — CET1 Capital Ratio moves up at next print (modeled 13.77) | CIBC — CET1 Capital Ratio had to be at or above 13.59 by 2026-11-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Job Vacancy Rate — Professional Services next print leaning up to 3.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Job Vacancy Rate — Professional Services moves up at next print (modeled 3.01) | Job Vacancy Rate — Professional Services had to be at or above 3 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): SLOS: Business Lending Conditions next print leaning down to 0.1067Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | SLOS: Business Lending Conditions moves down at next print (modeled 0.1067) | SLOS: Business Lending Conditions had to be at or below 0.96 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) next print leaning up to 134.58Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) moves up at next print (modeled 134.58) | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) had to be at or above 133.75 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Cash Reserves: Construction Sector next print leaning up to 70.59Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Cash Reserves: Construction Sector moves up at next print (modeled 70.59) | Cash Reserves: Construction Sector had to be at or above 69.73 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Interest Coverage — All Industries next print leaning up to 4.04Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Corporate Interest Coverage — All Industries moves up at next print (modeled 4.04) | Corporate Interest Coverage — All Industries had to be at or above 3.99 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries next print leaning down to 7.57Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries moves down at next print (modeled 7.57) | Corporate Profit Margin — All Industries had to be at or below 7.62 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Job Vacancy Rate — Technology (NAICS 51/54) next print leaning down to 1.76Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 25, 2026 | Nov 10, 2026 | Job Vacancy Rate — Technology (NAICS 51/54) moves down at next print (modeled 1.76) | Job Vacancy Rate — Technology (NAICS 51/54) had to be at or below 1.80 by 2026-11-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) expected to fall by 2026-11-11Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 11, 2026 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) to fall by 2026-11-11 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-11. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY expected to fall by 2026-11-12Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 | Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY to fall by 2026-11-12 | Relative Strength: S&P 500 Industrials vs SPY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-12. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to fall by 2026-11-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Nov 13, 2026 | TSX Composite to fall by 2026-11-13 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-13. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) next print leaning down to 2.18Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 14, 2026 | Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) moves down at next print (modeled 2.18) | Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) had to be at or below 2.20 by 2026-11-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Total International Migration (Canada) next print leaning up to -31,556Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 14, 2026 | Total International Migration (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled -31,556) | Total International Migration (Canada) had to be at or above -64,822 by 2026-11-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall by 2026-11-15Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) to fall by 2026-11-15 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-15. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) next print leaning up to 2.73Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 30, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) moves up at next print (modeled 2.73) | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) had to be at or above 2.70 by 2026-11-15. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) next print leaning up to -1.21Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 30, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled -1.21) | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) had to be at or above -1.93 by 2026-11-15. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Rental Demand Pressure (Canada) next print leaning down to -2.59Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 30, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | Rental Demand Pressure (Canada) moves down at next print (modeled -2.59) | Rental Demand Pressure (Canada) had to be at or below -2.58 by 2026-11-15. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at 2.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | May 19, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.0 by 2026-11-15 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2 by 2026-11-15. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-11-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 16, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to rise by 2026-11-16 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Investor Share of Purchases expected to rise by 2026-11-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 16, 2026 | Investor Share of Purchases to rise by 2026-11-16 | Investor Share of Purchases was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Government Spending: Defence expected to rise by 2026-11-18Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 18, 2026 | Government Spending: Defence to rise by 2026-11-18 | Government Spending: Defence was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-18. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) expected to rise by 2026-11-18Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 18, 2026 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) to rise by 2026-11-18 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-18. | Pending |
| Chat: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.46) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate at or above 1.46 by 2026-11-19 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.46 by 2026-11-19. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -66.9877) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -66.9877 by 2026-11-19 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -66.99 by 2026-11-19. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to hold (at 2.8) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 | CPI Inflation at 2.8 by 2026-11-19 | CPI Inflation had to be at 2.80 by 2026-11-19. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: WTI Crude Oil expected to rise by 2026-11-21Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 21, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil to rise by 2026-11-21 | WTI Crude Oil was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-21. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-05: no snap federal election is triggered (Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | May 25, 2026 | Nov 21, 2026 | Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 for 180d | Snap Election Probability (180d) had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-11-21. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.75) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | May 25, 2026 | Nov 21, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.75 by 2026-11-21 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.75 by 2026-11-21. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite expected to fall by 2026-11-22Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 22, 2026 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite to fall by 2026-11-22 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-22. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall by 2026-11-22Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 22, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) to fall by 2026-11-22 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BOS — Credit Conditions next print leaning down to -0.3064Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 7, 2026 | Nov 22, 2026 | BOS — Credit Conditions moves down at next print (modeled -0.3064) | BOS — Credit Conditions had to be at or below 1 by 2026-11-22. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Agriculture Input Cost Pressure next print leaning up to 182.60Nowcast - Release nowcastEvery relationship this forecast was built on has since been retired from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 12, 2026 | Nov 25, 2026 | Agriculture Input Cost Pressure moves up at next print (modeled 182.60) | Agriculture Input Cost Pressure had to be at or above 180.30 by 2026-11-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Government Spending: Defence expected to fall by 2026-11-25Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 25, 2026 | Government Spending: Defence to fall by 2026-11-25 | Government Spending: Defence was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) expected to fall by 2026-11-25Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 25, 2026 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) to fall by 2026-11-25 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-25. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 79.0) within 120dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 29, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 79.0 by 2026-11-26 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 79 by 2026-11-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Leverage — All Industries next print leaning down to 1.36Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 | Corporate Leverage — All Industries moves down at next print (modeled 1.36) | Corporate Leverage — All Industries had to be at or below 1.37 by 2026-11-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions next print leaning down to 4.03Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 | SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions moves down at next print (modeled 4.03) | SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions had to be at or below 4.13 by 2026-11-26. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing next print leaning down to 6.21Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing moves down at next print (modeled 6.21) | Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing had to be at or below 6.21 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Profit Margin — Manufacturing next print leaning up to 6.14Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Corporate Profit Margin — Manufacturing moves up at next print (modeled 6.14) | Corporate Profit Margin — Manufacturing had to be at or above 6.14 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) next print leaning up to 1,637Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) moves up at next print (modeled 1,637) | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) had to be at or above 1,581 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) next print leaning down to -5,813Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) moves down at next print (modeled -5,813) | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) had to be at or below -5,774 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-11-28Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2026-11-28 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: asylum-claimant stock stays ≥ 200,000 through 180 days (no major system-throughput acceleration that clears backlog) (Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 for 180d | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) had to be at or above 200,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: total Non-Permanent Resident stock stays ≥ 2.5M through 180 days (no aggressive cap-driven collapse) (Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 for 180d | Total NPR Stock (Canada) had to be at or above 2,500,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Canadian quarterly population YoY % growth stays ≥ 0.8% through 180 days (no abrupt demographic-cycle reversal at quarterly cadence) (Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 for 180d | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) had to be at or above 0.8 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Canadian quarterly population-growth rate stays at or above 0.5% through 180 days (no sustained demographic-cycle reversal) (Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 for 180d | Toronto CMA Population Growth had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: quarterly Permanent Resident landings stay ≥ 80,000 through 180 days (no acute IRCC target reduction) (Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 for 180d | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) had to be at or above 80,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: PR/NPR ratio stays ≥ 0.25 through 180 days (population growth retains structural anchoring; not 100% NPR-volatile) (PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 for 180d | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) had to be at or above 0.25 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: study-permit-only stock stays ≥ 400,000 through 180 days (cap continues to compress but floor holds) (Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 for 180d | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 400,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: temporary-resident count stays at or above 500,000 through 180 days (no acute policy-cut) (Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 for 180d | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 500,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: work-permit-only NPR stock stays ≥ 1,000,000 through 180 days (no acute TFW-program contraction) (Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 for 180d | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 1,000,000 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-06: Canadian grid fossil-share stays ≤ 30% through 180 days (no regression in decarbonization trajectory) (Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 for 180d | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or below 0.3 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-06: Canadian grid renewable share stays ≥ 60% through 180 days (no gas-buildout regime that displaces decarbonization) (Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 for 180d | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or above 0.6 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-06: no snap federal election is triggered (Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Nov 28, 2026 | Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 for 180d | Snap Election Probability (180d) had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-11-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-11-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2026-11-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-11-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite to rise by 2026-11-29 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Energy (XLE) expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | S&P 500 Energy (XLE) to rise by 2026-11-29 | S&P 500 Energy (XLE) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) to rise by 2026-11-29 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-11-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-11-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-11-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to fall by 2026-11-30 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-11-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to fall by 2026-11-30 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Investor Share of Purchases expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Investor Share of Purchases to fall by 2026-11-30 | Investor Share of Purchases was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI All-Items (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI All-Items (Ontario) to rise by 2026-11-30 | CPI All-Items (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Avg Weekly Earnings expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings to fall by 2026-11-30 | Construction Avg Weekly Earnings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2026-11-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to fall by 2026-11-30 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Federal Government Public Administration expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Federal Government Public Administration to fall by 2026-11-30 | GDP: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Engineering Construction expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Engineering Construction to rise by 2026-11-30 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) to fall by 2026-11-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings — All Industries (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to fall by 2026-11-30 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2026-11-30 | Alberta — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) to rise by 2026-11-30 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) to rise by 2026-11-30 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to EU ex-UK expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Exports — to EU ex-UK to rise by 2026-11-30 | Exports — to EU ex-UK was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing to fall by 2026-11-30 | GDP — Chemical Manufacturing (NAICS 325) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-11-30 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2026-11-30 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Labour Productivity YoY expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY to rise by 2026-11-30 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Sector Unit Labour Cost expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Business Sector Unit Labour Cost to rise by 2026-11-30 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) to rise by 2026-11-30 | GDP — Animal Production (NAICS 112) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-11-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Employment expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Manufacturing Employment to rise by 2026-11-30 | Manufacturing Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation to fall by 2026-11-30 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) to fall by 2026-11-30 | K-12 Enrolment (Newfoundland and Labrador) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD to rise by 2026-11-30 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-11-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to rise by 2026-11-30 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-11-30 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2026-11-30 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: OECD Consumer Confidence Index (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | OECD Consumer Confidence Index (Canada) to fall by 2026-11-30 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) to fall by 2026-11-30 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-11-30 | Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Building Permit Value expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Building Permit Value to rise by 2026-11-30 | Building Permit Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate to fall by 2026-11-30 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to fall by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to fall by 2026-11-30 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Openings — Construction expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Business Openings — Construction to rise by 2026-11-30 | Business Openings — Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-11-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-11-30 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-11-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to fall by 2026-12-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to fall by 2026-12-02 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate expected to rise by 2026-12-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate to rise by 2026-12-02 | 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): CCAA Filings Count next print leaning up to 9.16Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | CCAA Filings Count moves up at next print (modeled 9.16) | CCAA Filings Count had to be at or above 9 by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): P&C Insurance Carriers — Operating Profit or Loss next print leaning up to 4,862Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 19, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | P&C Insurance Carriers — Operating Profit or Loss moves up at next print (modeled 4,862) | P&C Insurance Carriers — Operating Profit or Loss had to be at or above 4,789 by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec Total Employment expected to rise by 2026-12-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | Quebec Total Employment to rise by 2026-12-02 | Quebec Total Employment was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) expected to fall by 2026-12-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) to fall by 2026-12-02 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) expected to rise by 2026-12-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 2, 2026 | Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) to rise by 2026-12-02 | Consumer Insolvency Filings was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-02. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Household Saving Rate next print leaning down to 2.71Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 22, 2026 | Dec 5, 2026 | Household Saving Rate moves down at next print (modeled 2.71) | Household Saving Rate had to be at or below 3.50 by 2026-12-05. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Household Formation Pressure (Canada) next print leaning down to -2.82Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 5, 2026 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) moves down at next print (modeled -2.82) | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) had to be at or below -2.79 by 2026-12-05. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-12-05Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Dec 5, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to fall by 2026-12-05 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-05. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite expected to rise by 2026-12-06Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Aug 10, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite to rise by 2026-12-06 | Relative Strength: Consumer Staples vs Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BLP — Hiring Intentions next print leaning down to 26.91Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | BLP — Hiring Intentions moves down at next print (modeled 26.91) | BLP — Hiring Intentions had to be at or below 27 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BLP — Investment Intentions next print leaning down to 29.16Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | BLP — Investment Intentions moves down at next print (modeled 29.16) | BLP — Investment Intentions had to be at or below 30 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BLP — Sales Expectations next print leaning down to 7.17Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | BLP — Sales Expectations moves down at next print (modeled 7.17) | BLP — Sales Expectations had to be at or below 8 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): BLP — Wage Expectations next print leaning up to 3.30Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | BLP — Wage Expectations moves up at next print (modeled 3.30) | BLP — Wage Expectations had to be at or above 3.20 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability next print leaning up to 16.04Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability moves up at next print (modeled 16.04) | CSCE — Expected Job Loss Probability had to be at or above 15.08 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): CSCE — Expected Spending Growth next print leaning up to 3.84Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Spending Growth moves up at next print (modeled 3.84) | CSCE — Expected Spending Growth had to be at or above 3.75 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): CSCE — Expected Wage Growth next print leaning up to 2.78Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 21, 2026 | Dec 6, 2026 | CSCE — Expected Wage Growth moves up at next print (modeled 2.78) | CSCE — Expected Wage Growth had to be at or above 2.76 by 2026-12-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-12-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Dec 7, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to rise by 2026-12-07 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-07. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-01-01): Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio next print leaning down to 7.01Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 26, 2026 | Dec 9, 2026 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio moves down at next print (modeled 7.01) | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio had to be at or below 7.05 by 2026-12-09. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) next print leaning up to 104.85Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 10, 2026 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) moves up at next print (modeled 104.85) | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) had to be at or above 102.20 by 2026-12-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-12-12Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 12, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to fall by 2026-12-12 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-12. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to fall (at or below 14.3) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 14.3 by 2026-12-13 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 14.30 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to hold (at or above 14.6) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or above 14.6 by 2026-12-13 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 14.60 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 252.3418) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 252.3418 by 2026-12-13 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 252.34 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.38) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.38 by 2026-12-13 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.38 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 0.77) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 0.77 by 2026-12-13 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 0.77 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.0782) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -67.0782 by 2026-12-13 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.08 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.42) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.42 by 2026-12-13 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.42 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 16, 2026 | Dec 13, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.25 by 2026-12-13 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.25 by 2026-12-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) expected to rise by 2026-12-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) to rise by 2026-12-14 | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-12-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) to rise by 2026-12-14 | CPI Household Ops & Furnishings (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto expected to fall by 2026-12-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto to fall by 2026-12-14 | Weekly Retail Gas Price — Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Total Initial EI Claims expected to rise (at or above 548000.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Total Initial EI Claims at or above 548000.0 by 2026-12-14 | Total Initial EI Claims had to be at or above 548,000 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.5) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.5 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.50 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to rise (at or above 8.5) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or above 8.5 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 8.50 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.0954) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -67.0954 by 2026-12-14 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.10 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to rise (at or above 8.1) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or above 8.1 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 8.10 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.0 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.0954) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -67.0954 by 2026-12-14 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.10 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.8) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.8 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 252.3418) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 252.3418 by 2026-12-14 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 252.34 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 250000.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 250000.0 by 2026-12-14 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 250,000 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or below 1.42) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 1.42 by 2026-12-14 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 1.42 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to fall (at or below 14.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 14.0 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 14 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 50.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 50.0 by 2026-12-14 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 50 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Credit Growth expected to fall (at or below 1.8715) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Credit Growth at or below 1.8715 by 2026-12-14 | Household Credit Growth had to be at or below 1.87 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to rise (at or below 15.17) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 15.17 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 15.17 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-12-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.0 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to fall (at or below 14.6) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 14.6 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 14.60 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to fall (at or below 14.6) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 14.6 by 2026-12-14 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 14.60 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to rise (at or above 278.9042) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or above 278.9042 by 2026-12-14 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 278.90 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-12-14 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to hold (at or above 2.8) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.8 by 2026-12-14 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 74.93) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 74.93 by 2026-12-14 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 74.93 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 74.93) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 17, 2026 | Dec 14, 2026 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 74.93 by 2026-12-14 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 74.93 by 2026-12-14. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.68) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.68 by 2026-12-15 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.68 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2026-12-15 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 234.669) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 234.669 by 2026-12-15 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 234.67 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4 by 2026-12-15 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.40 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 234.669) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 234.669 by 2026-12-15 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 234.67 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: Retail Sales expected to fall (at or below -0.5) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 18, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | Retail Sales at or below -0.5 by 2026-12-15 | Retail Sales had to be at or below -0.5 by 2026-12-15. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.37) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Dec 16, 2026 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.37 by 2026-12-16 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.37 by 2026-12-16. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -67.1059) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Dec 16, 2026 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -67.1059 by 2026-12-16 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.11 by 2026-12-16. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.1375) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Dec 16, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.1375 by 2026-12-16 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2.14 by 2026-12-16. | Pending |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall (at or below 2222744.45) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 19, 2026 | Dec 16, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) at or below 2222744.45 by 2026-12-16 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or below 2,222,744 by 2026-12-16. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4131) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4131 by 2026-12-17 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2026-12-17. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2026-12-17 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2026-12-17. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to rise (at or below 15.17) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or below 15.17 by 2026-12-17 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or below 15.17 by 2026-12-17. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or below 2.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | BoC Policy Rate at or below 2.0 by 2026-12-17 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or below 2 by 2026-12-17. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 234.669) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 20, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 234.669 by 2026-12-17 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 234.67 by 2026-12-17. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 2,694,106Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Dec 18, 2026 | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) moves up at next print (modeled 2,694,106) | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) had to be at or above 2,631,630 by 2026-12-18. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q) next print leaning up to 4,224,652Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Dec 18, 2026 | CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q) moves up at next print (modeled 4,224,652) | CM — Non-Interest Expense (Q) had to be at or above 4,197,328 by 2026-12-18. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): NA — Net Income (Quarterly) next print leaning up to 1,246,091Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 2, 2026 | Dec 18, 2026 | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) moves up at next print (modeled 1,246,091) | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) had to be at or above 1,234,629 by 2026-12-18. | Pending |
| Chat: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall (at or below 2222744.45) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Dec 19, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) at or below 2222744.45 by 2026-12-19 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) had to be at or below 2,222,744 by 2026-12-19. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-12-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 23, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to fall by 2026-12-23 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-23. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 138.72Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps) moves down at next print (modeled 138.72) | Bank of Montreal — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 139.10 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning up to 60.38Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) moves up at next print (modeled 60.38) | Bank of Montreal — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or above 58 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 73.29Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) moves down at next print (modeled 73.29) | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 73.90 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 149.28Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) moves down at next print (modeled 149.28) | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 149.80 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning down to 44.48Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) moves down at next print (modeled 44.48) | CIBC — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or below 44.80 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) next print leaning down to 134.50Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) moves down at next print (modeled 134.50) | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) had to be at or below 135 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) next print leaning up to 48.07Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 11, 2026 | Dec 27, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) moves up at next print (modeled 48.07) | Royal Bank of Canada — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) had to be at or above 40.60 by 2026-12-27. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: asylum-claimant stock stays ≥ 200,000 through 180 days (no major system-throughput acceleration that clears backlog) (Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 for 180d | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) had to be at or above 200,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: total Non-Permanent Resident stock stays ≥ 2.5M through 180 days (no aggressive cap-driven collapse) (Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 for 180d | Total NPR Stock (Canada) had to be at or above 2,500,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Canadian quarterly population YoY % growth stays ≥ 0.8% through 180 days (no abrupt demographic-cycle reversal at quarterly cadence) (Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 for 180d | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) had to be at or above 0.8 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Canadian quarterly population-growth rate stays at or above 0.5% through 180 days (no sustained demographic-cycle reversal) (Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 for 180d | Toronto CMA Population Growth had to be at or above 0.5 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: quarterly Permanent Resident landings stay ≥ 80,000 through 180 days (no acute IRCC target reduction) (Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 for 180d | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) had to be at or above 80,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: PR/NPR ratio stays ≥ 0.25 through 180 days (population growth retains structural anchoring; not 100% NPR-volatile) (PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 for 180d | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) had to be at or above 0.25 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: study-permit-only stock stays ≥ 400,000 through 180 days (cap continues to compress but floor holds) (Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 for 180d | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 400,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: temporary-resident count stays at or above 500,000 through 180 days (no acute policy-cut) (Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 for 180d | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 500,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: work-permit-only NPR stock stays ≥ 1,000,000 through 180 days (no acute TFW-program contraction) (Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 for 180d | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 1,000,000 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-07: Canadian grid fossil-share stays ≤ 30% through 180 days (no regression in decarbonization trajectory) (Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 for 180d | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or below 0.3 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-07: Canadian grid renewable share stays ≥ 60% through 180 days (no gas-buildout regime that displaces decarbonization) (Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 for 180d | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or above 0.6 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-07: no snap federal election is triggered (Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Dec 28, 2026 | Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 for 180d | Snap Election Probability (180d) had to be at or below 0.5 by 2026-12-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2026-12-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 29, 2026 | TSX Composite to rise by 2026-12-29 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Big 6 Bank Stock Average expected to fall by 2026-12-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 29, 2026 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average to fall by 2026-12-29 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-29. | Pending |
| Chat: GoC Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) expected to fall (at or below 0.47) within 163dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 19, 2026 | Dec 29, 2026 | GoC Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) at or below 0.47 by 2026-12-29 | GoC Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) had to be at or below 0.47 by 2026-12-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2026-12-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Dec 29, 2026 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2026-12-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) next print leaning up to 4,388Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 16, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) moves up at next print (modeled 4,388) | Consumer Proposals (Toronto CMA) had to be at or above 4,361 by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to fall by 2026-12-30 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) to fall by 2026-12-30 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI All-Items (Ontario) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CPI All-Items (Ontario) to fall by 2026-12-30 | CPI All-Items (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to EU ex-UK expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Exports — to EU ex-UK to rise by 2026-12-30 | Exports — to EU ex-UK was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Clean Electricity Share (Canada, %) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Federal Government Public Administration expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Federal Government Public Administration to fall by 2026-12-30 | GDP: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Chemical Manufacturing to fall by 2026-12-30 | GDP — Chemical Manufacturing (NAICS 325) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Engineering Construction expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | I-O Industry: Engineering Construction to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP — Engineering & Other Heavy Construction (NAICS 237) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2026-12-30 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2026-12-30 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Gasoline (Ontario) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) to rise by 2026-12-30 | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick Retail Trade Total (SA) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | New Brunswick Retail Trade Total (SA) to fall by 2026-12-30 | New Brunswick Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Oil Production (Monthly) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Canadian Oil Production (Monthly) to fall by 2026-12-30 | Canadian Oil Production (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP — Depository Credit Intermediation (NAICS 5221) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-12-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Employment expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Manufacturing Employment to rise by 2026-12-30 | Manufacturing Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to rise by 2026-12-30 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: OECD Consumer Confidence Index (Canada) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | OECD Consumer Confidence Index (Canada) to fall by 2026-12-30 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2026-12-30 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales to rise by 2026-12-30 | Alberta — Retail Trade, Total Sales was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Openings — Construction expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Business Openings — Construction to fall by 2026-12-30 | Business Openings — Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2026-12-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Canada Labour Force Participation Rate (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CMHC Average Rents expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CMHC Average Rents to rise by 2026-12-30 | CMHC Average Rent: 2-Bedroom was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Saguenay CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Saguenay CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Saguenay CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Montréal CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Montréal CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Montréal CMA Retail Trade Total (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Quebec — Total Employment (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Employment — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2026-12-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) to fall by 2026-12-30 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2026-12-30 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2026-12-30 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CAD/USD Exchange Rate expected to fall by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate to fall by 2026-12-30 | CAD/USD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY to rise by 2026-12-30 | Alberta — CPI All-Items, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) expected to rise by 2026-12-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Dec 30, 2026 | GDP — Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) to rise by 2026-12-30 | GDP — Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (NAICS 53) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall by 2026-12-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) to fall by 2026-12-31 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2026-12-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Food Services expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | GDP — Food Services to rise by 2027-01-01 | GDP — Food Services was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-01-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) to rise by 2027-01-01 | Net Non-Permanent Residents (Quebec) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) to fall by 2027-01-01 | Labour Supply Expansion Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to rise by 2027-01-01 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) to fall by 2027-01-01 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2027-01-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Asylum Share of Total NPR (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Asylum Share of Total NPR (Canada) to rise by 2027-01-01 | Asylum Share of Total NPR (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio expected to rise by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio to rise by 2027-01-01 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) to fall by 2027-01-01 | Quarterly Population QoQ % (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) to fall by 2027-01-01 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) expected to fall by 2027-01-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) to fall by 2027-01-01 | Alberta — Housing Starts (CMHC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-01. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-30): Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity next print leaning up to 14.09Nowcast - Release nowcast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jan 2, 2027 | Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity moves up at next print (modeled 14.09) | Big Six Banks — Average Return on Equity had to be at or above 13.86 by 2027-01-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Disposable Income expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Disposable Income to rise by 2027-01-03 | Household Disposable Income was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Beveridge Curve Health expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Canada — Beveridge Curve Health to rise by 2027-01-03 | Canada — Beveridge Curve Health was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to fall by 2027-01-03 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to fall by 2027-01-03 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD to rise by 2027-01-03 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Labour Productivity YoY expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY to fall by 2027-01-03 | Canada — Labour Productivity YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Sector Unit Labour Cost expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Business Sector Unit Labour Cost to fall by 2027-01-03 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing to fall by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD to rise by 2027-01-03 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD to rise by 2027-01-03 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Unit Labour Cost (Total Economy) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Interprovincial Migration (British Columbia) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to fall by 2027-01-03 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions to rise by 2027-01-03 | SLOS: Consumer Credit Conditions was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Interest Coverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Profit Margin — Finance expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Profit Margin — Finance to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Profit Margin — Finance was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2027-01-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CSCE — Expected Inflation expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | CSCE — Expected Inflation to rise by 2027-01-03 | CSCE — Expected Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2027-01-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Borrower Arrears Rate (60+ days) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Cost Index expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Construction Cost Index to rise by 2027-01-03 | Construction Cost Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Material Cost Index expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Construction Material Cost Index to rise by 2027-01-03 | Construction Material Cost Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada — Beveridge Curve Health expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Canada — Beveridge Curve Health to rise by 2027-01-03 | Canada — Beveridge Curve Health was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears (TransUnion/BoC) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears (TransUnion/BoC) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Interprovincial Labour Flight expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Interprovincial Labour Flight to fall by 2027-01-03 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Leverage — Manufacturing was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CSCE — Expected Inflation expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | CSCE — Expected Inflation to rise by 2027-01-03 | CSCE — Expected Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to fall by 2027-01-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Cost Index expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Construction Cost Index to rise by 2027-01-03 | Construction Cost Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Construction Material Cost Index expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Construction Material Cost Index to rise by 2027-01-03 | Construction Material Cost Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Job Vacancy Rate — Finance (NAICS 52) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Job Vacancy Rate — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Job Vacancy Rate — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Job Vacancy Rate — Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Total Liabilities (NFC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business M&E Investment expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Business M&E Investment to fall by 2027-01-03 | Business M&E Investment was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BLP — Investment Intentions expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | BLP — Investment Intentions to fall by 2027-01-03 | BLP — Investment Intentions was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate to rise by 2027-01-03 | Combined Federal+Provincial Corporate Tax Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD to rise by 2027-01-03 | Federal — Personal Income Tax Revenue, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD to rise by 2027-01-03 | Federal — Total Program Expenditures, YTD was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Job Vacancy Rate — Construction (NAICS 23) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Formation Pressure (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Formation Pressure (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Formation Pressure (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Formation Pressure (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Formation Pressure (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) to fall by 2027-01-03 | Household Formation Pressure (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio expected to fall by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio to fall by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) to rise by 2027-01-03 | Corporate Total Expenses (NFC) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Toronto expected to rise by 2027-01-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto to rise by 2027-01-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-01-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 6, 2027 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to rise by 2027-01-06 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) expected to fall by 2027-01-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 6, 2027 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) to fall by 2027-01-06 | GHG Emissions — Total Canada (NIR) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-06. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall (at or above 1.75) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 9, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at or above 1.75 by 2027-01-09 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 1.75 by 2027-01-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Concrete PPI expected to fall by 2027-01-11Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 11, 2027 | Concrete PPI to fall by 2027-01-11 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-11. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to hold (at 247300.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 16, 2026 | Jan 12, 2027 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at 247300.0 by 2027-01-12 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at 247,300 by 2027-01-12. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Transportation (Ontario) expected to fall by 2027-01-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jan 13, 2027 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) to fall by 2027-01-13 | CPI Transportation (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-13. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 216.4385) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 19, 2026 | Jan 15, 2027 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 216.4385 by 2027-01-15 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 216.44 by 2027-01-15. | Pending |
| Chat: WTI Crude Oil expected to fall (at or below 74.44) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 21, 2026 | Jan 17, 2027 | WTI Crude Oil at or below 74.44 by 2027-01-17 | WTI Crude Oil had to be at or below 74.44 by 2027-01-17. | Pending |
| Chat: Total Initial EI Claims expected to rise (at or above 571662.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | Total Initial EI Claims at or above 571662.0 by 2027-01-18 | Total Initial EI Claims had to be at or above 571,662 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to fall (at or below 216.4385) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or below 216.4385 by 2027-01-18 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or below 216.44 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: Household Debt Service Ratio expected to rise (at or above 0.3) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | Household Debt Service Ratio at or above 0.3 by 2027-01-18 | Household Debt Service Ratio had to be at or above 0.3 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 4.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or above 4.0 by 2027-01-18 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 4 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.5) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.5 by 2027-01-18 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.50 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.8) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 22, 2026 | Jan 18, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.8 by 2027-01-18 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.80 by 2027-01-18. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2027-01-19 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2027-01-19 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -66.9964) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -66.9964 by 2027-01-19 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.00 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 2.94) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or above 2.94 by 2027-01-19 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 2.94 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise (at or above 1.4088) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or above 1.4088 by 2027-01-19 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or above 1.41 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) expected to rise (at or above 239.2215) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) at or above 239.2215 by 2027-01-19 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) had to be at or above 239.22 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2027-01-19 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to fall (at or below 2.8) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 23, 2026 | Jan 19, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or below 2.8 by 2027-01-19 | CPI Inflation had to be at or below 2.80 by 2027-01-19. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to hold (at 2.25) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 24, 2026 | Jan 20, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at 2.25 by 2027-01-20 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at 2.25 by 2027-01-20. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P/TSX Capped Utilities expected to fall by 2027-01-21Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 21, 2027 | S&P/TSX Capped Utilities to fall by 2027-01-21 | S&P/TSX Capped Utilities was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-21. | Pending |
| Chat: CPI Inflation expected to rise (at or above 3.5) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 26, 2026 | Jan 22, 2027 | CPI Inflation at or above 3.5 by 2027-01-22 | CPI Inflation had to be at or above 3.50 by 2027-01-22. | Pending |
| Chat: Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads expected to rise (at or above -66.9951) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 23, 2027 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads at or above -66.9951 by 2027-01-23 | Canadian Investment-Grade Credit Spreads had to be at or above -67.00 by 2027-01-23. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.75) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 23, 2027 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 0.75 by 2027-01-23 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.75 by 2027-01-23. | Pending |
| Chat: Total Initial EI Claims expected to rise (at or above 571662.0) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 29, 2026 | Jan 25, 2027 | Total Initial EI Claims at or above 571662.0 by 2027-01-25 | Total Initial EI Claims had to be at or above 571,662 by 2027-01-25. | Pending |
| Chat: BoC Policy Rate expected to rise (at or above 2.3625) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 29, 2026 | Jan 25, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate at or above 2.3625 by 2027-01-25 | BoC Policy Rate had to be at or above 2.36 by 2027-01-25. | Pending |
| Chat: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to fall (at or below 0.66) within 180dchat - Directional forecast | Jul 29, 2026 | Jan 25, 2027 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate at or below 0.66 by 2027-01-25 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate had to be at or below 0.66 by 2027-01-25. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: asylum-claimant stock stays ≥ 200,000 through 180 days (no major system-throughput acceleration that clears backlog) (Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) ≥ 200000 for 180d | Total Asylum Claimants and Protected Persons (Canada) had to be at or above 200,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: total Non-Permanent Resident stock stays ≥ 2.5M through 180 days (no aggressive cap-driven collapse) (Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Total NPR Stock (Canada) ≥ 2,500,000 for 180d | Total NPR Stock (Canada) had to be at or above 2,500,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Canadian quarterly population YoY % growth stays ≥ 0.8% through 180 days (no abrupt demographic-cycle reversal at quarterly cadence) (Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) ≥ 0.8 for 180d | Quarterly Population YoY % (Canada) had to be at or above 0.8 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Canadian quarterly population-growth rate stays at or above 0.5% through 180 days (no sustained demographic-cycle reversal) (Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Toronto CMA Population Growth ≥ 0.5 for 180d | Toronto CMA Population Growth had to be at or above 0.5 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: quarterly Permanent Resident landings stay ≥ 80,000 through 180 days (no acute IRCC target reduction) (Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) ≥ 80000 for 180d | Permanent Resident Landings (Canada) had to be at or above 80,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: PR/NPR ratio stays ≥ 0.25 through 180 days (population growth retains structural anchoring; not 100% NPR-volatile) (PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) ≥ 0.25 for 180d | PR / NPR Ratio (Canada) had to be at or above 0.25 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: study-permit-only stock stays ≥ 400,000 through 180 days (cap continues to compress but floor holds) (Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 400000 for 180d | Study Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 400,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: temporary-resident count stays at or above 500,000 through 180 days (no acute policy-cut) (Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) ≥ 500000 for 180d | Non-Permanent Residents (Canada) had to be at or above 500,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: work-permit-only NPR stock stays ≥ 1,000,000 through 180 days (no acute TFW-program contraction) (Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) ≥ 1,000,000 for 180d | Work Permit Holders Only (Canada) had to be at or above 1,000,000 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-08: Canadian grid fossil-share stays ≤ 30% through 180 days (no regression in decarbonization trajectory) (Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) ≤ 0.3 for 180d | Fossil Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or below 0.3 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Climate forecast 2026-08: Canadian grid renewable share stays ≥ 60% through 180 days (no gas-buildout regime that displaces decarbonization) (Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) ≥ 0.6 for 180d | Renewable Share of Generation (Canada) had to be at or above 0.6 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Political forecast 2026-08: no snap federal election is triggered (Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 through 180d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Jan 28, 2027 | Snap Election Probability (180d) ≤ 0.5 for 180d | Snap Election Probability (180d) had to be at or below 0.5 by 2027-01-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-01-29Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 29, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-01-29 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-29. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Employment expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Manufacturing Employment to fall by 2027-01-30 | Manufacturing Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to fall by 2027-01-30 | Canadian Financial Stress Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-01-30 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Gasoline (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) to rise by 2027-01-30 | CPI Gasoline (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Data Reliability Index expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Data Reliability Index to fall by 2027-01-30 | Data Reliability Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Electricity (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CPI Electricity (Ontario) to rise by 2027-01-30 | CPI Electricity (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Wholesale: Motor Vehicles & Parts (SA) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Canada Wholesale: Motor Vehicles & Parts (SA) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Canada Wholesale: Motor Vehicles & Parts (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2027-01-30 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Business Openings — Construction expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Business Openings — Construction to fall by 2027-01-30 | Business Openings — Construction was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Architectural, Engineering & Related Services expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | I-O Industry: Architectural, Engineering & Related Services to rise by 2027-01-30 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CMHC Average Rents expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CMHC Average Rents to rise by 2027-01-30 | CMHC Average Rent: 2-Bedroom was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Policy Rate expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate to rise by 2027-01-30 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: USD/CAD Exchange Rate expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate to rise by 2027-01-30 | USD/CAD Exchange Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Nova Scotia — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2027-01-30 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to fall by 2027-01-30 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2027-01-30 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CMHC Vacancy Rate expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CMHC Vacancy Rate to rise by 2027-01-30 | CMHC Vacancy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-01-30 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2027-01-30 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) to fall by 2027-01-30 | Public-Sector Employment (British Columbia) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) to fall by 2027-01-30 | Public-Sector Employment (Nova Scotia) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Energy Exports expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Energy Exports to rise by 2027-01-30 | Energy Exports was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to rise by 2027-01-30 | Canadian Financial Stress Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-01-30 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ready-Mix Concrete PPI expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Ready-Mix Concrete PPI to rise by 2027-01-30 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to fall by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to fall by 2027-01-30 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Housing Starts (Toronto CMA) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Housing Starts (Canada, monthly SAAR) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 6, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-01-30 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-01-30 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Full-Time expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | Employment — Full-Time to rise by 2027-01-30 | Employment — Full-Time was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — CPI-Median, YoY expected to rise by 2027-01-30Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 30, 2027 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY to rise by 2027-01-30 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Big 6 Bank Stock Average expected to rise by 2027-01-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average to rise by 2027-01-31 | Big 6 Bank Stock Average was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-01-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-01-31 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-01-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-01-31 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-01-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Jan 31, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-01-31 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-01-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Shelter (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-02-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 29, 2026 | Feb 1, 2027 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) to rise by 2027-02-01 | CPI — Shelter (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Goods-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2027-02-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Feb 1, 2027 | GDP: Goods-Producing Industries to rise by 2027-02-01 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Montreal — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) to fall by 2027-02-02 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Montreal — Efficiency Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio to rise by 2027-02-02 | Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2027-02-02 | TD Bank — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-02-02 | TD Bank — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2027-02-02 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) to fall by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Montreal — CET1 Capital Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — CET1 Capital Ratio expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — CET1 Capital Ratio to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — CET1 Capital Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Efficiency Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2027-02-02 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio to rise by 2027-02-02 | Royal Bank of Canada — CET1 Capital Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: OSFI — Allowance for Credit Losses expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | OSFI — Allowance for Credit Losses to rise by 2027-02-02 | OSFI — Allowance for Credit Losses was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-02-02 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) expected to rise by 2027-02-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Feb 2, 2027 | TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) to rise by 2027-02-02 | TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-02-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Feb 3, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-02-03 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Imported Inflation (Currency-Driven) expected to fall by 2027-02-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Feb 10, 2027 | Canadian Imported Inflation (Currency-Driven) to fall by 2027-02-10 | Canadian Imported Inflation (Currency-Driven) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-02-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Feb 10, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-02-10 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to rise by 2027-02-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Feb 17, 2027 | PPI Wheat to rise by 2027-02-17 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-02-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Feb 24, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-02-24 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-24. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Total Assets expected to rise by 2027-02-28Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Feb 28, 2027 | CIBC — Total Assets to rise by 2027-02-28 | CIBC — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Total Assets expected to fall by 2027-02-28Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Feb 28, 2027 | TD Bank — Total Assets to fall by 2027-02-28 | TD Bank — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2027-02-28. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Canada Manufacturing: Paper (NAICS 322) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Policy Rate expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate to fall by 2027-03-01 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Food Services & Drinking Places Receipts (Canada, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) to fall by 2027-03-01 | Prince Edward Island — Average Weekly Earnings (SEPH) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to fall by 2027-03-01 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Active Businesses (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Active Businesses (Canada) to fall by 2027-03-01 | Active Businesses (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Electricity (Ontario) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI Electricity (Ontario) to fall by 2027-03-01 | CPI Electricity (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Architectural, Engineering & Related Services expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | I-O Industry: Architectural, Engineering & Related Services to rise by 2027-03-01 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Royal Bank of Canada — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-03-01 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD Bank — Business & Government Lending expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending to rise by 2027-03-01 | TD Bank — Business & Government Lending was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Energy Exports expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Energy Exports to fall by 2027-03-01 | Energy Exports was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to fall by 2027-03-01 | Canadian Financial Stress Index was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Gasoline, YoY expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY to rise by 2027-03-01 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to fall by 2027-03-01 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to fall by 2027-03-01 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings to rise by 2027-03-01 | Professional Services Avg Weekly Earnings was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Bank of Nova Scotia — PCL Ratio (bps of avg loans) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-03-01 | Bank of Nova Scotia — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ready-Mix Concrete PPI expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Ready-Mix Concrete PPI to rise by 2027-03-01 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Full-Time expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Employment — Full-Time to rise by 2027-03-01 | Employment — Full-Time was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Public Administration expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | GDP: Public Administration to rise by 2027-03-01 | GDP: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) to fall by 2027-03-01 | Manitoba Housing Starts (Monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-03-01 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly to rise by 2027-03-01 | Alberta — Real GDP, Monthly was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US PCE Price Index (YoY) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 15, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | US PCE Price Index (YoY) to rise by 2027-03-01 | US PCE Price Index (YoY) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Oil & Gas Extraction (Conventional) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | I-O Industry: Oil & Gas Extraction (Conventional) to fall by 2027-03-01 | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to rise by 2027-03-01 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — CPI-Median, YoY expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY to fall by 2027-03-01 | CPI — CPI-Median, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Full-Time Employment Share expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Full-Time Employment Share to fall by 2027-03-01 | Full-Time Employment Share was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Abbotsford-Mission CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Abbotsford-Mission CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) to fall by 2027-03-01 | Abbotsford-Mission CMA Unemployment Rate (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) to rise by 2027-03-01 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to rise by 2027-03-01 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Professional Services expected to fall by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | GDP — Professional Services to fall by 2027-03-01 | GDP — Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (NAICS 54) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Final Consumption expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Household Final Consumption to rise by 2027-03-01 | Household Final Consumption was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY to rise by 2027-03-01 | CPI — Alcoholic Beverages, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY to rise by 2027-03-01 | CPI — All-Items ex-Food & Energy, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY to rise by 2027-03-01 | CPI — Tobacco Products & Cannabis, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) to rise by 2027-03-01 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2027-03-01 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Electricity Generation (Monthly) expected to rise by 2027-03-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 2, 2026 | Mar 1, 2027 | Electricity Generation (Monthly) to rise by 2027-03-01 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to rise by 2027-03-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Mar 3, 2027 | PPI Wheat to rise by 2027-03-03 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Vancouver CMA expected to fall by 2027-03-10Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 10, 2027 | Employment: Vancouver CMA to fall by 2027-03-10 | Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-03-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Mar 10, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-03-10 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2027-03-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 16, 2027 | Canada National Unemployment Rate to rise by 2027-03-16 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment: Vancouver CMA expected to fall by 2027-03-17Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 17, 2027 | Employment: Vancouver CMA to fall by 2027-03-17 | Vancouver CMA Employment (LFS, 3-mo MA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to rise by 2027-03-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Mar 17, 2027 | PPI Wheat to rise by 2027-03-17 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to rise by 2027-03-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Mar 23, 2027 | Canada National Unemployment Rate to rise by 2027-03-23 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-23. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-03-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Mar 24, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-03-24 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-24. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2027-03-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 30, 2027 | Canada National Unemployment Rate to fall by 2027-03-30 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to rise by 2027-03-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Mar 31, 2027 | PPI Wheat to rise by 2027-03-31 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-03-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis to fall by 2027-04-01 | AECO C Natural Gas Hub Basis was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-04-01 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Net Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Net Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Interprovincial Migration (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Energy Exports expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Energy Exports to rise by 2027-04-01 | Energy Exports was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Employment — Health Care & Social Assistance (NAICS 62) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio to fall by 2027-04-01 | Corporate Cash-to-Assets Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Part-Time expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 3, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Employment — Part-Time to rise by 2027-04-01 | Employment — Part-Time was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Total Electricity Generation (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Total Electricity Generation (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) to rise by 2027-04-01 | CPI Health & Personal Care (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: IPPI Machinery & Equipment expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | IPPI Machinery & Equipment to fall by 2027-04-01 | IPPI — Machinery & Equipment was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Ready-Mix Concrete PPI expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 20, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Ready-Mix Concrete PPI to fall by 2027-04-01 | PPI: Construction Materials was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Gasoline, YoY expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY to fall by 2027-04-01 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2027-04-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Non-Residential Building Construction expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | I-O Industry: Non-Residential Building Construction to fall by 2027-04-01 | GDP — Construction (NAICS 23) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to rise by 2027-04-01 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Full-Time Employment Share expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Full-Time Employment Share to fall by 2027-04-01 | Full-Time Employment Share was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to fall by 2027-04-01 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Full-Service & Limited-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7225) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | GDP — Full-Service & Limited-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7225) to rise by 2027-04-01 | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2027-04-01 | Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) to fall by 2027-04-01 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Services-Producing Industries expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | GDP: Services-Producing Industries to rise by 2027-04-01 | GDP — All Services-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: I-O Industry: Oil & Gas Extraction (Conventional) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | I-O Industry: Oil & Gas Extraction (Conventional) to fall by 2027-04-01 | GDP — Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to rise by 2027-04-01 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-04-01 | CPI Restaurant Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to fall by 2027-04-01 | cfsi was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Final Consumption expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Household Final Consumption to rise by 2027-04-01 | Household Final Consumption was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) to rise by 2027-04-01 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to rise by 2027-04-01 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Canada Housing Starts (Monthly, National) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2027-04-01 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY to fall by 2027-04-01 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) to fall by 2027-04-01 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI — Agriculture expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | BCPI — Agriculture to fall by 2027-04-01 | BCPI — Agriculture was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Public-Sector Employment (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Public-Sector Employment (Canada) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Public-Sector Employment (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 8, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-04-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value expected to fall by 2027-04-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 2, 2026 | Apr 1, 2027 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value to fall by 2027-04-01 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to fall by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CSCE — Expected Inflation expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | CSCE — Expected Inflation to rise by 2027-04-03 | CSCE — Expected Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to rise by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) to fall by 2027-04-03 | Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) to rise by 2027-04-03 | Consumer Sentiment (ODIN composite) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CSCE — Expected Inflation expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | CSCE — Expected Inflation to rise by 2027-04-03 | CSCE — Expected Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to fall by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CSCE — Expected Inflation expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | CSCE — Expected Inflation to fall by 2027-04-03 | CSCE — Expected Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to rise by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) to rise by 2027-04-03 | Alberta — Population Estimate (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI Low-Rise Toronto expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI Low-Rise Toronto to fall by 2027-04-03 | BCPI Low-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been switched off in ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to rise by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) expected to fall by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | BCPI High-Rise Composite (Toronto) to fall by 2027-04-03 | BCPI High-Rise Toronto was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Population Growth Momentum (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-04-03Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 3, 2027 | Population Growth Momentum (Canada) to rise by 2027-04-03 | Population Growth Momentum (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-03. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Relative Strength: Industrials vs Composite expected to rise by 2027-04-04Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Apr 4, 2027 | Relative Strength: Industrials vs Composite to rise by 2027-04-04 | Relative Strength: Industrials vs Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — CPI All-Items, YoY expected to fall by 2027-04-05Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Apr 5, 2027 | Nova Scotia — CPI All-Items, YoY to fall by 2027-04-05 | CPI All-Items (Nova Scotia) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-05. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: PPI Wheat expected to fall by 2027-04-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Apr 7, 2027 | PPI Wheat to fall by 2027-04-07 | PPI Wheat was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) expected to rise by 2027-04-18Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | Apr 18, 2027 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) to rise by 2027-04-18 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-18. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) expected to fall by 2027-04-25Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | Apr 25, 2027 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) to fall by 2027-04-25 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-25. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2027-04-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Apr 30, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2027-04-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-04-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Apr 30, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-04-30 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-04-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Gasoline, YoY expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY to fall by 2027-05-01 | CPI — Gasoline, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Alberta Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Alberta Wholesale: Food/Beverage/Tobacco (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) to fall by 2027-05-01 | New Brunswick Wholesale: Machinery & Equipment (SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change to fall by 2027-05-01 | Average Hourly Wages — YoY % Change was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding to fall by 2027-05-01 | Bank of Montreal — Residential Mortgages Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada Avg Weekly Earnings: Public Administration was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Work Permit Demand — Business, Finance and Administration (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Work Permit Demand — Manufacturing and Utilities (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Work Permit Demand — Sales and Service (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Work Permit Demand — All Sectors Total (Canada, monthly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Household Final Consumption expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Household Final Consumption to fall by 2027-05-01 | Household Final Consumption was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Bank of Montreal — Total Assets expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets to rise by 2027-05-01 | Bank of Montreal — Total Assets was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Efficiency Ratio expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | CIBC — Efficiency Ratio to fall by 2027-05-01 | CIBC — Efficiency Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2027-05-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) to rise by 2027-05-01 | GDP — Telecommunications (NAICS 517) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP — Full-Service & Limited-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7225) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | GDP — Full-Service & Limited-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7225) to rise by 2027-05-01 | GDP — Accommodation & Food Services (NAICS 72) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Mortgage Arrears Rate expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Mortgage Arrears Rate to rise by 2027-05-01 | Mortgage Arrears Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding to rise by 2027-05-01 | Royal Bank of Canada — HELOC Outstanding was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to rise by 2027-05-01 | cfsi was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) to fall by 2027-05-01 | CIBC — Net Interest Margin (bps) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BCPI — Agriculture expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | BCPI — Agriculture to fall by 2027-05-01 | BCPI — Agriculture was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Employment — Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jul 6, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Employment — Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Employment — Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 29, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2027-05-01 | Alberta — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 29, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Manufacturing Wage Growth (YoY %) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Total Merchandise Exports expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Total Merchandise Exports to rise by 2027-05-01 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 22, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Supply-Chain Pressure Proxy (Canada/US) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | BoC Overnight Rate to rise by 2027-05-01 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada National Unemployment Rate expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada National Unemployment Rate to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada National Unemployment Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 15, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Labour Force (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Robbery Rate per 100k (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Robbery Rate per 100k (Canada) to fall by 2027-05-01 | Robbery Rate per 100k (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jun 8, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2027-05-01 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Nova Scotia — Total Employment (LFS) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) expected to rise by 2027-05-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | May 1, 2027 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) to rise by 2027-05-01 | Canada Total Employment (LFS, SA) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: National Bank — Efficiency Ratio expected to rise by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | National Bank — Efficiency Ratio to rise by 2027-05-02 | National Bank — Efficiency Ratio was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total expected to rise by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total to rise by 2027-05-02 | Royal Bank of Canada — Provision for Credit Losses, Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) expected to fall by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) to fall by 2027-05-02 | BNS — Net Income (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: National Bank — Total Revenue expected to rise by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | National Bank — Total Revenue to rise by 2027-05-02 | National Bank — Total Revenue was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) expected to rise by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) to rise by 2027-05-02 | TD — Non-Interest Expense (Q) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: NA — Net Income (Quarterly) expected to fall by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) to fall by 2027-05-02 | NA — Net Income (Quarterly) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) expected to rise by 2027-05-02Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 6, 2026 | May 2, 2027 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) to rise by 2027-05-02 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-02. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-05-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | May 9, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-05-09 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-05-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | May 10, 2027 | CPI — Food (Canada) to rise by 2027-05-10 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-05-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | May 10, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-05-10 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2027-05-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 16, 2027 | Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2027-05-16 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2027-05-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 16, 2027 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2027-05-16 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2027-05-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 16, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2027-05-16 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-05-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 17, 2027 | CPI — Food (Canada) to rise by 2027-05-17 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-05-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | May 17, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-05-17 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2027-05-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 23, 2027 | Market 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2027-05-23 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-23. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2027-05-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 23, 2027 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2027-05-23 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-23. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2027-05-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | May 23, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2027-05-23 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-23. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-05-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 30, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-05-30 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food (Canada) expected to fall by 2027-05-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 31, 2027 | CPI — Food (Canada) to fall by 2027-05-31 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to fall by 2027-05-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | May 31, 2027 | TSX Composite to fall by 2027-05-31 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-05-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canadian Financial Stress Index expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Canadian Financial Stress Index to fall by 2027-06-01 | cfsi was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2027-06-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-06-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to rise by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to rise by 2027-06-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY to fall by 2027-06-01 | CPI — Food Purchased from Stores, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY expected to rise by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY to rise by 2027-06-01 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Overnight Rate expected to rise by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | BoC Overnight Rate to rise by 2027-06-01 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value expected to rise by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been re-measured as too unreliable to forecast from. | Jul 13, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value to rise by 2027-06-01 | Quebec — Building Permits, Total Value was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP: Goods-Producing Industries expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | GDP: Goods-Producing Industries to fall by 2027-06-01 | GDP — All Goods-Producing Industries was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Exports — to United States expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Exports — to United States to fall by 2027-06-01 | Exports — to United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Merchandise Exports — Total expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Merchandise Exports — Total to fall by 2027-06-01 | Merchandise Exports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Merchandise Imports — Total expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Merchandise Imports — Total to fall by 2027-06-01 | Merchandise Imports — Total was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Trade Balance expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecastThe relationship this forecast was built on has since been removed from ODIN's model of the economy. | Jun 6, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Trade Balance to fall by 2027-06-01 | Trade Balance was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Index expected to fall by 2027-06-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | S&P 500 Index to fall by 2027-06-01 | sp500 was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Crude death rate stays ≤ 9.5 per 1,000 population over 1 year (no acute healthcare-system collapse) (Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 for 365d | Crude Death Rate (Canada) had to be at or below 9.50 by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Excess all-cause deaths vs 5y baseline stay ≤ 30,000 over 1 year (no pandemic-scale mortality shock; 2020-22 hit ~75k+) (Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 for 365d | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) had to be at or below 30,000 by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-06: Total Fertility Rate stays ≥ 1.2 over 1 year (no acute deepening of demographic-shrinkage regime; current ~1.3) (Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 for 365d | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) had to be at or above 1.20 by 2027-06-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Index expected to rise by 2027-06-04Forecast - Directional forecast | Jun 6, 2026 | Jun 4, 2027 | S&P 500 Index to rise by 2027-06-04 | sp500 was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-04. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to rise by 2027-06-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 6, 2027 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) to rise by 2027-06-06 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to rise by 2027-06-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 6, 2027 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage to rise by 2027-06-06 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to rise by 2027-06-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 6, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to rise by 2027-06-06 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-06-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 7, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-06-07 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-06-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jun 7, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-06-07 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) expected to fall by 2027-06-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 13, 2027 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) to fall by 2027-06-13 | 5-Year Conventional Mortgage (Posted) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage expected to fall by 2027-06-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 13, 2027 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage to fall by 2027-06-13 | Posted 5yr Fixed Mortgage was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans expected to fall by 2027-06-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 13, 2027 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans to fall by 2027-06-13 | Canada Chartered-Bank Business Loans was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) expected to fall by 2027-06-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 13, 2027 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) to fall by 2027-06-13 | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (XLP) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Food (Ontario) expected to rise by 2027-06-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 14, 2027 | CPI Food (Ontario) to rise by 2027-06-14 | CPI Food (Ontario) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: TSX Composite expected to rise by 2027-06-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Jun 14, 2027 | TSX Composite to rise by 2027-06-14 | TSX Composite was checked against the written threshold by 2027-06-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY expected to fall by 2027-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY to fall by 2027-07-01 | CPI — Mortgage Interest Cost, YoY was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: BoC Policy Rate expected to rise by 2027-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | BoC Policy Rate to rise by 2027-07-01 | BoC Policy Rate was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) expected to rise by 2027-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) to rise by 2027-07-01 | Avg Weekly Earnings (Canada) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: GDP Monthly (All Industries) expected to fall by 2027-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) to fall by 2027-07-01 | GDP Monthly (All Industries) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to rise by 2027-07-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | CPI Inflation to rise by 2027-07-01 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Crude death rate stays ≤ 9.5 per 1,000 population over 1 year (no acute healthcare-system collapse) (Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 for 365d | Crude Death Rate (Canada) had to be at or below 9.50 by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Excess all-cause deaths vs 5y baseline stay ≤ 30,000 over 1 year (no pandemic-scale mortality shock; 2020-22 hit ~75k+) (Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 for 365d | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) had to be at or below 30,000 by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-07: Total Fertility Rate stays ≥ 1.2 over 1 year (no acute deepening of demographic-shrinkage regime; current ~1.3) (Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1, 2027 | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 for 365d | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) had to be at or above 1.20 by 2027-07-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) expected to fall by 2027-07-09Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 9, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) to fall by 2027-07-09 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-09. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Imports — from United States expected to rise by 2027-07-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 10, 2027 | Imports — from United States to rise by 2027-07-10 | Imports — from United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) expected to fall by 2027-07-10Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 10, 2027 | CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) to fall by 2027-07-10 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-10. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) expected to rise by 2027-07-16Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 16, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) to rise by 2027-07-16 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-16. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Imports — from United States expected to rise by 2027-07-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 17, 2027 | Imports — from United States to rise by 2027-07-17 | Imports — from United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) expected to rise by 2027-07-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 17, 2027 | Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) to rise by 2027-07-17 | Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) expected to rise by 2027-07-17Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 17, 2027 | CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) to rise by 2027-07-17 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-17. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) expected to rise by 2027-07-23Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 23, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) to rise by 2027-07-23 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-23. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) expected to fall by 2027-07-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 24, 2027 | Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) to fall by 2027-07-24 | Natural Gas (Henry Hub spot) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-24. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) expected to fall by 2027-07-24Forecast - Directional forecast | Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 24, 2027 | CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) to fall by 2027-07-24 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-24. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) expected to fall by 2027-07-30Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jul 30, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread (ETF-implied direction) to fall by 2027-07-30 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-30. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Imports — from United States expected to fall by 2027-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jul 31, 2027 | Imports — from United States to fall by 2027-07-31 | Imports — from United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) expected to rise by 2027-07-31Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 3, 2026 | Jul 31, 2027 | CBOE VIX (Volatility Index) to rise by 2027-07-31 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-07-31. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: CPI Inflation expected to fall by 2027-08-01Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 1, 2027 | CPI Inflation to fall by 2027-08-01 | CPI Inflation was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Annual live births stay ≥ 300,000 over 1 year (cohort-supply floor holds; current ~351k) (Total Live Births (Canada) ≥ 300000 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2027 | Total Live Births (Canada) ≥ 300000 for 365d | Total Live Births (Canada) had to be at or above 300,000 by 2027-08-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Crude death rate stays ≤ 9.5 per 1,000 population over 1 year (no acute healthcare-system collapse) (Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2027 | Crude Death Rate (Canada) ≤ 9.5 for 365d | Crude Death Rate (Canada) had to be at or below 9.50 by 2027-08-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Excess all-cause deaths vs 5y baseline stay ≤ 30,000 over 1 year (no pandemic-scale mortality shock; 2020-22 hit ~75k+) (Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2027 | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) ≤ 30000 for 365d | Excess Deaths vs 5y Baseline (Canada) had to be at or below 30,000 by 2027-08-01. | Pending |
| Demographic forecast 2026-08: Total Fertility Rate stays ≥ 1.2 over 1 year (no acute deepening of demographic-shrinkage regime; current ~1.3) (Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 through 365d)Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2027 | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) ≥ 1.2 for 365d | Total Fertility Rate (Canada) had to be at or above 1.20 by 2027-08-01. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread Direction (ETF-implied) expected to fall by 2027-08-06Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 6, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread Direction (ETF-implied) to fall by 2027-08-06 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-06. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Imports — from United States expected to rise by 2027-08-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 7, 2027 | Imports — from United States to rise by 2027-08-07 | Imports — from United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: VIX — Daily History (5y) expected to fall by 2027-08-07Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 7, 2027 | VIX — Daily History (5y) to fall by 2027-08-07 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-07. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: US High-Yield Credit Spread Direction (ETF-implied) expected to rise by 2027-08-13Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 13, 2027 | US High-Yield Credit Spread Direction (ETF-implied) to rise by 2027-08-13 | Canadian High-Yield Credit Spreads was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-13. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: Imports — from United States expected to rise by 2027-08-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 14, 2027 | Imports — from United States to rise by 2027-08-14 | Imports — from United States was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-14. | Pending |
| Lag-harvest: VIX — Daily History (5y) expected to rise by 2027-08-14Forecast - Directional forecast | Aug 17, 2026 | Aug 14, 2027 | VIX — Daily History (5y) to rise by 2027-08-14 | VIX — Daily History (5y) was checked against the written threshold by 2027-08-14. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2075-01-01): Projected Population — Medium-growth (Canada) next print leaning up to 57,800,584Nowcast - Release nowcast | May 31, 2026 | Nov 29, 2027 | Projected Population — Medium-growth (Canada) moves up at next print (modeled 57,800,584) | Projected Population — Medium-growth (Canada) had to be at or above 57,423,700 by 2027-11-29. | Pending |
| Live-Inference nowcast (2026-04-01): Major Federal Transfers — Total Cash (Canada) next print leaning down to 107,637Nowcast - Release nowcast | Jun 8, 2026 | Dec 7, 2027 | Major Federal Transfers — Total Cash (Canada) moves down at next print (modeled 107,637) | Major Federal Transfers — Total Cash (Canada) had to be at or below 108,362 by 2027-12-07. | Pending |
Each row shows the database pre-registration timestamp and deadline before outcome. A signed daily manifest is a follow-on proof layer.